Box Office Preview: ‘Star Wars’ Spin-Off to Ring in 2017 Over $400M

"Rogue One: A Star Wars Story" (2016) - Box Office Preview 2017

‘Star Wars’ Continues Intergalactic Success into 2017

The day between Christmas and New Year’s Day are rather peculiar at the box office. Weekdays perform almost as strong as weekend numbers. And with a traditionally crowded slate, it’s rare to find a new release open in this frame. Rather than previewing the new films, this will be an overall prediction for the holiday weekend. It’s a safe bet that Rogue One: A Star Wars Story has a third weekend on top locked in.

It’s no surprise that Rogue One is doing a fraction of what The Force Awakens did last year. Coming anywhere close to last year’s phenomenon would have heads rolling. Still after two weeks in theaters, Rogue One is on the cusp on $400 million. Since Sunday, the latest Star Wars film has steamrolled through the $300 million. And with it went the likes of Suicide Squad, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, Zootopia, Deadpool, The Jungle Book and The Secret Life of Pets. Securing the top spot of 2016 is coming much sooner than we think. Captain America: Civil War’s $408 million run will be obliterated by Sunday. That only leaves Finding Dory’s $486 million haul to topple. That could occur as early as mid-January.

With another extended weekend in play, Rogue One may be flirting with $440 million by Monday. The best comparison would be with a similar frame in January 2011. With the exception of Little Fockers, Yogi Bear and Tron Legacy, the rest of the holdovers actually increased from Christmas weekend. Even those three films dipped under 20%. If that’s the case for Rogue One, we’re in store for a $48 million third weekend.

The other major winner over the holiday break has been Illumination Entertainment’s Sing. The animated ensemble film hasn’t slowed since opening a few days before Christmas. After 9 days, Sing has already auditioned for over $123 million. Between Despicable Me, The Secret Life of Pets and now Sing, Illumination has clearly established themselves as a brand to be reckoned with. Even with Moana still hanging around and projected to pass $200 million today, nothing is stopping Sing from being a holiday success story. An uptick from last weekend could push the film over $37 million for the frame.

Newcomers Ocean Waves from GKIDS and Paterson are due out in extremely limited release on Friday. At this current posting, theater counts are not available for either film.

Box Office Projections

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Buena Vista) – $48.2 million (1)

2. Sing (Universal) – $37.4 million (2)

3. Moana (Buena Vista) – $10.5 million (6)

4. Passengers (Sony) – $10.1 million (3)

5. Why Him? (20th Century Fox) – $9.8 million (4)

 

Check back on Sunday for this weekend’s box office estimates. 

Written by
Matt Marshall is a film reviewer that specializes in Blu-Rays. He has a B.A. in Communications/Journalism from St. John Fisher College and resides in Rochester, NY.

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