Wicked has entered the chatroom.
The Broadway musical adaptation of Wicked has debuted to great reviews and box office success, and just shook up the Oscar race. It even gained 20 nominations for the HCA’s upcoming Astra Awards. Dune: Part Two followed it with 16 nominations.
A Complete Unknown and Nosferatu had their first critics screenings and gained positive reactions, but it sounds like both might be right outside of the Best Picture race. That could change as more reactions come in though.
Gladiator II is doing pretty well, but it doesn’t seem likely to be a Best Picture player. It will probably gain some tech nominations and a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Denzel Washington though.
The Brutalist, Anora, and Conclave continue to be the frontrunners in most pundits’ predictions. Nickel Boys and A Real Pain have picked up more positive momentum while Blitz and Emilia Pérez have taken some critical hits.
The Astra Awards, Gotham Awards, National Board of Review Awards, Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards, and AFI Awards will all be announced in early December. Golden Globe nominations and Critics Choice Awards nominations will also be announced in December. The Oscar shortlists for some categories will also be revealed at the end of December. All of those events could greatly shake up the race.
*** = my prediction for the winner in each category as of now.
Best Picture
Anora – Neon
***The Brutalist – A24
Conclave – Focus Features
Dune: Part Two – Warner Bros. Pictures
Emilia Pérez – Netflix
Nickel Boys – Amazon MGM Studios
A Real Pain – Searchlight Pictures
The Room Next Door – Sony Pictures Classics
Sing Sing – A24
Wicked – Universal
Other Possibilities:
A Complete Unknown – Searchlight Pictures
Gladiator II – Paramount Pictures
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Neon
Best Director
***Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Edward Berger – Conclave
Mohammad Rasoulof – The Seed of the Sacred Fig
RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys
Sean Baker – Anora
Other Possibilities:
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Best Actress
***Angelina Jolie – Maria
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths
Mikey Madison – Anora
Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door
Other Possibilities:
Demi Moore – The Substance
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl
Best Actor
***Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Other Possibilities:
Daniel Craig – Queer
Gabriel LaBelle – Saturday Night
Glen Powell – Hit Man
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
***Zoe Saldana – Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez
Best Supporting Actor
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II
***Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Stanley Tucci – Conclave
Other Possibilities:
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Yura Borisov – Anora
Best Original Screenplay
***Anora
The Brutalist
Challengers
Hard Truths
A Real Pain
Other Possibilities:
Saturday Night
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
The Substance
Best Adapted Screenplay
***Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
The Room Next Door
Sing Sing
Other Possibilities:
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
Best International Feature
***Emilia Pérez – France
The Girl with the Needle – Denmark
I’m Still Here – Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Germany
Vermiglio – Italy
Other Possibilities:
Grand Tour – Portugal
Kneecap – Ireland
Under the Volcano – Poland
Best Documentary Feature
Dahomey
Daughters
A New Kind of Wilderness
***No Other Land
Sugarcane
Other Possibilities:
The Brink of Dreams
The Last of the Sea Women
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
***The Wild Robot
Other Possibilities:
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Moana 2
Piece by Piece
Best Cinematography
***The Brutalist
Conclave
The Girl with the Needle
Maria
Nickel Boys
Other Possibilities:
Anora
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Best Editing
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
***Conclave
Nickel Boys
Other Possibilities:
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Best Production Design
Blitz
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
***Wicked
Other Possibilities:
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Nosferatu
Best Costume Design
Blitz
Dune: Part Two
Maria
Nosferatu
***Wicked
Other Possibilities:
The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
A Different Man
Dune: Part Two
***Nosferatu
Sasquatch Sunset
Other Possibilities:
Blitz
Joker: Folie à Deux
Wicked
Best Visual Effects
Deadpool & Wolverine
***Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Other Possibilities:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Mufasa: The Lion King
Twisters
Best Sound
***A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Gladiator II
Wicked
Other Possibilities:
Blitz
Civil War
Conclave
Best Original Score
Blitz
***The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
The Room Next Door
Other Possibilities:
Dune: Part Two
Saturday Night
Wicked
Best Original Song
“Forbidden Road” – Better Man
***“Mi Camino” – Emilia Pérez
“Beyond” – Moana 2
“Like a Bird” – Sing Sing
“The Journey” – Six Triple Eight
Other Possibilities:
“El Mal” – Emilia Pérez
“Kiss the Sky” – The Wild Robot
“Will and Harper Go West” – Will & Harper
Best Animated Short Film
An Almost Christmas Story
Bug Diner
Hurikán
***In the Shadow of the Cypress
Percebes
Other Possibilities:
The Brown Dog
Silent Panorama
Wander to Wonder
Best Live Action Short Film
***The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
The Masterpiece
An Orange from Jaffa
Ripe!
The Yellow
Other Possibilities:
Loser Baby
A Swim Lesson
An Urban Allegory
Best Documentary Short Film
Frank
Incident
***Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
One Good Reason
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Other Possibilities:
Alok
Remember, Broken Crayons Colour Too
Wrecked a Bunch of Cars, Had a Good Time
Total Nomination and Win Counts:
The Brutalist – 10 nominations, 6 wins
Conclave – 9 nominations, 2 wins
Emilia Pérez – 7 nominations, 3 wins
Wicked – 6 nominations, 2 wins
Dune: Part Two – 6 nominations, 1 win
Nickel Boys – 6 nominations, 0 wins
Anora – 5 nominations, 1 win
Sing Sing – 5 nominations, 0 wins
The Room Next Door – 4 nominations, 0 wins
A Real Pain – 4 nominations, 0 wins
Gladiator II – 4 nominations, 0 wins
A Complete Unknown – 3 nominations, 1 win
Maria – 3 nominations, 1 win
Blitz – 3 nominations, 0 wins
Nosferatu – 2 nominations, 1 win
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Hard Truths – 2 nominations, 0 wins
The Girl with the Needle – 2 nominations, 0 wins
The Wild Robot – 1 nomination, 1 win
No Other Land – 1 nomination, 1 win
In the Shadow of the Cypress – 1 nomination, 1 win
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent – 1 nomination, 1 win
Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World – 1 nomination, 1 win
The Outrun – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Challengers – 1 nomination, 0 wins
I’m Still Here – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Vermiglio – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Dahomey – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Daughters – 1 nomination, 0 wins
A New Kind of Wilderness – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Sugarcane – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Flow – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Inside Out 2 – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Memoir of a Snail – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – 1 nomination, 0 wins
A Different Man – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Sasquatch Sunset – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Deadpool & Wolverine – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Better Man – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Moana 2 – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Six Triple Eight – 1 nomination, 0 wins
An Almost Christmas Story – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Bug Diner – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Hurikán – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Percebes – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Masterpiece – 1 nomination, 0 wins
An Orange from Jaffa – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Ripe! – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Yellow – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Frank – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Incident – 1 nomination, 0 wins
One Good Reason – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Only Girl in the Orchestra – 1 nomination, 0 wins
