Let’s just cut to the chase: as they do every year, BAFTA has once again chosen violence and completely upended everyone’s Oscar predictions. Are they the be all end all in terms of what we should consider when it comes to finalizing our predicted line-ups for the 2023 Academy Awards? Not quite – as we obviously still have to see what the guilds say (especially SAG, DGA, PGA, and WGA), and let’s wait until we know which of these films that made the 2023 BAFTA Longlists are able to convert these mentions and this momentum into actual nominations – but this does clue us in to what films have the most potential international support (and where), and said support can be the key to making close calls in competitive categories. But that’s enough of an introduction – let’s just get right into this because boy is there a lot to discuss.
BEST FILM
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
SNUBS: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, RRR, She Said, The Whale, The Woman King, Women Talking
SURPRISES: Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, Triangle of Sadness
The biggest takeaway here – and from this entire list – is that All Quiet on the Western Front is a bonafide Oscar contender across-the-board (as you saw with its showing on the Oscar shortlists and as you’ll see from its showing here), and yes, that includes Picture too. As for films like Aftersun, Living, and Triangle of Sadness getting in at the expense of films like Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, and Women Talking, we’re gonna need to hear from the guilds before we really know who’s in and who’s out. I have a tough time seeing Avatar not make the final ten at the Oscars – it’s too big of a hit, it has too much crafts support – but Babylon and Women Talking? They’re on thin ice, especially due to their performance elsewhere. And I think Triangle of Sadness may be the best positioned of that former trio to take advantage of their fall and sneak in to one of the final Best Picture spots at the Oscars. Though Aftersun also had an exceptional day as you’ll see below, and it might prove to be the dark horse of this awards season in the end, should it manage other major nominations in Actor and Original Screenplay.
DIRECTOR
Colm Bairéad – The Quiet Girl
Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front
Chinonye Chukwu – Till
Alice Diop – Saint Omer
Sara Dosa – Fire of Love
Todd Field – TÁR
Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick
Marie Kreutzer – Corsage
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Baz Luhrmann – Elvis
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
Gina Prince-Bythewood – The Woman King
Maria Schrader – She Said
Charlotte Wells – Aftersun
SNUBS: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Damien Chazelle (Babylon), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness), S.S. Rajamouli (RRR), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
SURPRISES: Colm Bairéad (The Quiet Girl), Chinonye Chukwu (Till), Alice Diop (Saint Omer), Sara Dosa (Fire of Love), Marie Kreutzer (Corsage)
It’s important to remember that, when deciding this longlist of the top 16 directors, measures are taken to assure that there is an equal split between men and women, with eight mentions for the former, and eight for the latter. With that being said, how in the world was Steven Spielberg not one of the eight men longlisted for directing for The Fabelmans?! He’s supposed to be the Best Director frontrunner! This alarming miss contributes to the narrative that he’s losing ground to Daniels (as Everything Everywhere All at Once rises to the top in the Best Picture race), and it’s a big blow to The Fabelmans overall. Elsewhere, I’m not as worried about Cameron’s snub – Avatar underperformed across-the-board (it’s been noted that it debuted late on the BAFTA screening platform), and it’s easy to look elsewhere when it comes to the male nominees since Cameron is already so honored – but I do think Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) and Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave) getting in over Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) and S.S. Rajamouli (RRR), could mean that one of the former two will be our “international nominee” in Best Director instead of one of the latter two.
LEADING ACTOR
Austin Butler – Elvis
Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick
Harris Dickinson – Triangle of Sadness
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kaluuya – Nope
Felix Kammerer – All Quiet on the Western Front
Daryl McCormack – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living
SNUBS: Diego Calva (Babylon), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection), Adam Sandler (Hustle)
SURPRISES: Harris Dickinson (Triangle of Sadness), Daniel Kaluuya (Nope), Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)
Harris Dickinson and Felix Kammerer getting in here shows you how strong Triangle of Sadness and All Quiet on the Western Front were at BAFTA, while Austin Butler, Brendan Fraser, Colin Farrell, and Bill Nighy are the four actors who now have Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA longlist mentions (and thus seem best poised for Oscar nominations as a result). Did this longlist help clear up who’s getting that fifth spot? Some will say this is good news for Tom Cruise (and it is), but with his appearance here and Aftersun‘s performance elsewhere, I still feel good predicting Paul Mescal to slide into the line-up in the end.
LEADING ACTRESS
Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Cate Blanchett – TÁR
Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler – Till
Lesley Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
SNUBS: Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Margot Robbie (Babylon)
SURPRISES: Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse)
The top four in this category seems to be solidified with Cate Blanchett, Viola Davis, Michelle Williams, and Michelle Yeoh all getting Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA longlist mentions thus far, and that fifth spot remains hard to call. Many – myself included – have been predicting Babylon‘s Margot Robbie, but her miss here is troubling (as is Olivia Colman’s for Empire of Light – they really turned on her after The Favourite, huh?). Let’s see who gets in at SAG, but Blonde‘s Ana de Armas and Till‘s Danielle Deadwyler needed these mentions to stay in the conversation, while I Wanna Dance with Somebody‘s Naomi Ackie got a big boost (and she’ll get an even bigger one if she manages to nab a nomination).
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks – Elvis
Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt – Babylon
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse
Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front
Micheal Ward – Empire of Light
Ben Whishaw – Women Talking
SNUBS: Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
SURPRISES: Tom Hanks (Elvis), Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Brendan Gleeson, Barry Keoghan, and Ke Huy Quan have made it in at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and now here, so if there was any debate that they’re our top three, let’s clear that up here and now. It’s also interesting to see Brad Pitt being the only Babylon actor to show up on these longlists, and Tom Hanks and Woody Harrelson’s mentions let us know not only how much support their films have, but how they could even potentially surprise individually (keep an eye on Hanks at SAG, lol). It’s a bad day for The Fabelmans boys though – and for that film overall – as neither Paul Dano nor Judd Hirsch were listed here, and after Golden Globes snubs as well, they’re looking to SAG for a hail mary, and I’m not sure they’ll get it.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness
Lashana Lynch – The Woman King
Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Carey Mulligan – She Said
Emma Thompson – Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Aimee Lou Wood – Living
SNUBS: Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Claire Foy (Women Talking), Nina Hoss (TÁR), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
SURPRISES: Lashana Lynch (The Woman King), Emma Thompson (Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical), Aimee Lou Wood (Living)
Angela Bassett, Kerry Condon, and Jamie Lee Curtis are now in the elite group of Best Supporting Actress contenders who have gotten Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA longlist mentions, but it’s also great to see Golden Globe nominee Dolly de Leon show up here, buoyed by Triangle of Sadness‘ support overall (how will it fare at SAG?), and this longlist also offered a lifeline to the likes of The Whale‘s Hong Chau and The Woman King‘s Lashana Lynch (FINALLY she shows up). Who got hurt? The Women Talking ladies, none of whom could manage a mention, and EEAAO‘s Stephanie Hsu, who was excluded in favor of her co-star, Jamie Lee Curtis. Let’s see if SAG can offer her some support as well.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
The Menu
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness
SNUBS: Armageddon Time, Babylon, Empire of Light, Nope
SURPRISES: Decision to Leave, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, The Menu
The consensus five in this category – The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, TÁR, and Triangle of Sadness – all made it in, while it was nice to see Aftersun and Decision to Leave, two passion picks that need support anywhere they can get it, show up as well. Elvis‘ appearance once again demonstrates how strong that film is, while Babylon‘s miss is another hit it didn’t need.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
The Quiet Girl
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
The Wonder
SNUBS: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Bones and All, White Noise
SURPRISES: The Quiet Girl, The Wonder
With Women Talking performing so poorly practically everywhere else, its once iron-clad frontrunner status in this category is being challenged, but it’s at least safe in this longlist, while key competitors Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and All Quiet on the Western Front (quickly rising) also made an appearance. There were no major misses here – save for some indie passion picks with small but vocal fanbases like Bones and All and White Noise – and “surprises” The Quiet Girl and The Wonder were classic “Brit picks.”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Athena
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
SNUBS: Avatar: The Way of Water, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, Decision to Leave, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Nope, Women Talking
SURPRISES: Amsterdam, Athena, Elvis, TÁR
The most shocking thing about this longlist is Avatar: The Way of Water‘s omission – a film many (myself included) thought could win – so this likely puts Top Gun ahead for sure in the Oscar race. The Fabelmans‘ snub is equally shocking (and worrying). Amsterdam‘s inclusion is perhaps the most puzzling mention (until you remember it was shot by Emmanuel Lubezki), while it was really refreshing to see Athena show up, and Roger Deakins proved that, even though Empire of Light is slipping anywhere else, he can still rack up cinematography mentions like nobody else.
COSTUME DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Corsage
Elvis
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
SNUBS: Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Living, The Woman King, Women Talking
SURPRISES: All Quiet on the Western Front, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
All Quiet on the Western Front continued to overperform with its mention in this category, while The Fabelmans continued to miss mentions it really shouldn’t be (especially since it’s been widely considered to be a top five contender in Costume Design), and The Woman King‘s snub is just as head-scratching. Corsage and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – two costume-centric films – showing up makes a lot of sense (though where’s Living, a movie longlisted for Best Film with similarly showy costuming to showcase from Sandy Powell?), and although this is another craft longlist Everything Everywhere All at Once missed, you’ll see next that it still got in where it needed to.
EDITING
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
SNUBS: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, TÁR, Women Talking
SURPRISES: Aftersun, Decision to Leave, Moonage Daydream, Triangle of Sadness
Two (seemingly) strong contenders for the Oscars’ Best Editing line-up – Avatar: The Way of Water and The Fabelmans – missed out here, which was a troubling trend for both films overall as well. In their place, we saw frontrunners Top Gun: Maverick and Everything Everywhere All at Once, as well as Elvis (love it or hate it, there is one VERY edited film) and a few unique indie mentions for Aftersun, Decision to Leave, Moonage Daydream, and Triangle of Sadness.
MAKE UP & HAIR
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
Emancipation
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
The Whale
SNUBS: Crimes of the Future
SURPRISES: Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Aside from swapping Crimes of the Future out for Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, this is the exact same line-up as we saw in the Oscars’ shortlist for Best Makeup and Hairstyling two weeks ago. The top three remain Elvis, The Whale, and The Batman, and All Quiet on the Western Front continues to rise on account of its ascent across-the-board, while a nomination for Blonde could pair with a nomination for Ana de Armas’ lead performance as well.
ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
TÁR
Women Talking
The Wonder
SNUBS: Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Fabelmans, Nope, She Said, The Woman King
SURPRISES: TÁR, The Wonder
The Fabelmans‘ John Williams, considered to be a frontrunner to win this award, missed out on a mere longlist mention, so that’s concerning. Other key contenders like Babylon, Women Talking, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, and The Banshees of Inisherin all predictably appeared, while The Batman and Empire of Light got some love despite being left off the Oscars’ shortlist, as did TÁR, which was disqualified by The Academy.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
SNUBS: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Woman King
SURPRISES: N/A
This longlist is pretty much what we expected, with few massive omissions, though Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – seen as a top-tier contender in this category elsewhere – was noticeably left off. Otherwise, at least Avatar: The Way of Water and The Fabelmans both managed to show up here, as did Babylon and Everything Everywhere All at Once in spite of some snubs in other longlists.
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Jurassic World Dominion
Top Gun: Maverick
SNUBS: Nope, Thirteen Lives
SURPRISES: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Once again, we have a longlist that’s essentially the same as the Oscars’ shortlist for the same category, though Everything Everywhere All at Once and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio were subbed in for Nope and Thirteen Lives. It should be interesting to see if EEAAO in particular can get into the final five here after not even being in contention for consideration at the Oscars. But we all know Avatar is winning.
SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
TÁR
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick
SNUBS: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Moonage Daydream
SURPRISES: TÁR, Thirteen Lives
The only two films to miss this longlist that showed up on the Oscars’ shortlist were Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Moonage Daydream (snubbed for TÁR and Thirteen Lives), but they still had good days elsewhere, so I wouldn’t read into that too much (Moonage Daydream even got an Editing mention). Otherwise, the usual suspects showed up, and there’s not much else to say given that we all know Top Gun is sweeping every Sound award all season long.
ANIMATED FILM
The Amazing Maurice
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Lightyear
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
SNUBS: Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood, My Father’s Dragon, Inu-Oh, Strange World, Wendell & Wild
SURPRISES: The Amazing Maurice, Minions: The Rise of Gru
There were only eight films on this longlist, which led to a few more snubs than usual, but the top four in the animated feature race still showed up (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, and Turning Red), though that fifth spot remains as tough to nail as ever. Many have been predicting My Father’s Dragon or Wendell & Wild – with either representing a second nomination for Netflix after Pinocchio – but… now what? Perhaps DreamWorks’ The Bad Guys? Maybe surprise contender The Amazing Maurice?
DOCUMENTARY
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
A Bunch of Amateurs
Fire of Love
The Ghost of Richard Harris
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song
Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues
McEnroe
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
SNUBS: Bad Axe, Descendant, The Territory
SURPRISES: N/A
Comparing this longlist with the Oscars’ Documentary shortlist, the notable snubs here are for Descendant, Bad Axe, and The Territory, but all of the top contenders for the win – All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Navalny, and Fire of Love – still made appearances, as well as other favorites All That Breathes and Moonage Daydream. Thankfully, there isn’t too much that’s alarming about this list.
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Close
Corsage
Decision to Leave
EO
Holy Spider
The Quiet Girl
RRR
SNUBS: Joyland, Return to Seoul, Saint Omer
SURPRISES: N/A
There aren’t many notable misses here compared to the Oscars’ International Film shortlist (though a major difference is the appearance of RRR, given that India didn’t submit that film for Oscar consideration), but it is sad to see Saint Omer left off, even while Alice Diop showed up in the Directing category. It’s pretty clear by now that All Quiet is probably running away with this category, but Decision to Leave is best poised to join it, and then we could see a unique assembly of other contenders, such as Close, Argentina, 1985, and EO. (It should be noted too that this is the only longlist mention RRR received, which may be a result of the Brits turning their nose up at a film that so heavily critiques their government, or it could just be common snob appeal, which may not bode well for its awards future.)
And here are the longlists for a few BAFTA-specific categories, which I won’t dive into specifically given that there’s no Oscar equivalent:
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Blue Jean
Brian and Charles
Emily
Empire of Light
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Lady Chatterley’s Lover
Living
The Lost King
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
See How They Run
The Swimmers
The Wonder
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR, OR PRODUCER
Aftersun
Blue Jean
Donna
Electric Malady
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Nothing Compares
Rebellion
See How They Run
Wayfinder
CASTING
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness
BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
Beware of Trains
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Christopher at Sea
Middle Watch
Salvation Has No Name
Your Mountain is Waiting
BRITISH SHORT FILM
The Ballad of Olive Morris
Bazigaga
Bus Girl
A Drifting Up
A Fox in the Night
An Irish Goodbye
Little Berlin
Love Languages
Too Rough
WanderLand
