2023 Oscars Nominations Predictions by Scott Menzel (November 2022)

Welcome to my predictions for the 95th Annual Academy Awards. This page will typically be updated on a monthly basis or whenever I see a film in the conversation that prompts an update. This page will be updated from now until the Oscars nominations are revealed on January 24, 2023. The Oscars will take place on Sunday, March 12, 2023, at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, California. The ceremony is set to air on ABC beginning at 5pm PT/8pm ET.

I will be seeing Babylon later this month and will update this page with more educated predictions after seeing the film. At the moment, I believe that Universal Pictures’ The Fabelmans is the current Best Picture front-runner. However, as we all know, a lot can change between now and March but since I have seen the majority of the films in this year’s conversation already, I am pretty confident with the majority of these predictions but will be adjusting accordingly over the next several weeks and months.

November 16, 2022 Update: I saw Babylon and after screening the film I have removed the film from most of my predictions. Several categories were updated as a result.

Below are my current predictions in 20 of the 23 Oscar categories. The remaining three, which are the Short Film categories (Best Animated, Best Documentary, and Best Live-Action) will be revealed in December.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
2. “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)
3. “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
4. “Women Talking” (UA Releasing)
5. “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
6. “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
7. “She Said” (Universal Pictures)
8. “The Whale” (A24)
9. “Thirteen Lives” (Amazon Studios)
10. “RRR” (Variance Films)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, “The Whale” (A24)
2. Austin Butler, “Elvis” (Warner Brothers)
3. Hugh Jackman, “The Son” (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
5. Gabriel LaBelle, “The Fablemans” (Paramount Pictures)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)
2. Cate Blanchett, “Tar” (Focus Features)
3. Viola Davis, “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
4. Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
5. Olivia Colman, “Empire of Light” (Searchlight Pictures)


Predicted Nominees:

1. Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
2. Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)
3. Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Eddie Redmayne, “The Good Nurse” (Netflix)
5. Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Carey Mulligan, “She Said” (Universal Pictures)
2. Thuso Mbedu, “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
3. Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”” (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Hong Chau, “The Whale” (A24)
5. Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)


Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, “The Fablemans” (Universal Pictures)
2. James Cameron, “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
3. Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Sarah Polley, “Women Talking” (UA Releasing)
5. Todd Field, “Tar” (Focus Features)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
2. Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg, “The Fablemans” (Universal Pictures)
3. Ruben Östlund, “Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
4. Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)
5. Todd Field, “Tar” (Focus Features)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sarah Polley, “Women Talking” (UA Releasing)
2. Samuel D. Hunter, “The Whale” (A24)
3. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, “She Said” (Universal Pictures)
4. Rian Johnson, “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
5. William Nicholson, “Thirteen Lives” (Amazon Studios)

Best International Feature

Predicted Nominees: 

1. “Argentina, 1985” (Amazon Studios)
2. “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
3. “Decision to Leave” (Mubi)
4. “Close” (A24)
5. “Holy Spider” (Utopia)


Predicted Nominees:

1. Roger Deakins, “Empire of Light” (Searchlight Pictures)
2. Claudio Miranda, “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
3. Janusz Kaminski, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
4. Russell Carpenter, “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
5. Mandy Walker, “Elvis” (Warner Brothers)

Best Animated Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)
2. “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24)
3. “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (Universal Pictures)
4. “Turning Red” (Pixar)
5. “Minions: The Rise of Gru” (Universal Pictures)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
2. “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Walt Disney Studios)
3. “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
4. “RRR” (Variance Films)
5. “Black Adam” (Warner Brothers)

BEST Documentary

Predicted Nominees:

1. “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (Neon)
2. “Moonage Daydream” (Neon)
3. “Good Night Oppy” (Amazon Studios)
4. “Fire of Love” (National Geographic)
5. “Sr.” (Netflix)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hildur Guðnadóttir, “Women Talking” (UA Releasing)
2. Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “Empire of Light” (Searchlight Pictures)
3. John Williams, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
4. Justin Hurwitz, “Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)
5. Nicholas Britell, “She Said” (Universal Pictures)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” (Variance Films)
2. “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
3. “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Walt Disney Pictures)
4. “Nobody Like U” from “Turning Red” (Pixar)
5. “Do a Little Good”  from “Spirited” (Apple TV+)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ruth E. Carter, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Walt Disney Pictures)
2. Catherine Martint, “Elvis” (Warner Brothers)
3. Gersha Phillips, “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
4. Mark Bridges, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
5. Linda Muir, “The Northman” (Focus Features)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. James Chinlund, “The Batman” (Warner Brothers)
2. Hannah Beachler, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Walt Disney Pictures)
3. Rick Carter, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
4. Molly Hughes, Emma Rudkin, “Thirteen Lives” (Amazon Studios)
5. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy “Elvis” (Warner Brothers)


Predicted Nominees:

1. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, Stephen E. Rivkin, Ian Silverstein, “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
2. Eddie Hamilton, “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
3. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
4. Paul Rogers, “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)
5. Jonathan Redmond, Matt Villa, “Elvis” (Warner Brothers)


Predicted Nominees:

1. “Elvis” (Warner Brothers)
2. “The Whale” (A24)
3. “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
4. “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Walt Disney Pictures)
5. “The Batman” (Warner Brothers)


Predicted Nominees:

1. “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
2. “The Batman” (Warner Brothers)
3. “Elvis” (Warner Brothers)
4. “Tár” (Focus Features)
5. “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)

Written by
Born in New Jersey, Scott Menzel has been watching film and television since he was three years old. Growing up, he watched as many movies as he could and was highly influenced by the films of Tim Burton, John Hughes, Robert Zemeckis, and Steven Spielberg. Scott has an Associate's Degree in Marketing, a Bachelor's in Mass Media, Communications, and a Master's in Electronic Media. He has been writing film reviews under the alias of MovieManMenzel since 2003 and started his writing career as a contributing critic at IMDB.com and Joblo.com. In 2009, Scott launched MovieManMenzel.com where he posted several of his film reviews but in 2011 decided to shut down the site when he launched We Live Film.com. In 2015, We Live Film became We Live Entertainment. The domain name change occurred after months of debate but was done so that he and his fellow staff members could write about anything and everything in the world of entertainment.

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