The Oscar Playing Field Right Now:
The Oscar nominations for the 95th Academy Awards will be coming up on January 24th. The big show itself, celebrating the films of 2022, will be held on March 12th and will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. But who will be competing for the awards?
Now that the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards have both announced their winners and SAG and BAFTA have announced their nominees, there is a playing field of nominees to guess. Some seem like sure bets while others are hopeful nominees. The Academy is also known to throw in some shockers every now and then that no one saw coming. The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once seem poised to battle for the Best Picture win, though The Fabelmans could slip back in as the favorite if it overperforms on nomination day.
Make sure you also check out Zoë Rose Bryant’s continuing coverage of the awards season on We Live Entertainment as she has been covering everything Oscars-related for weeks.
Now here is a look at what I think the potential snubs and surprises could be, followed by my predictions for what will likely play out for the nominations announced on January 24th.
Potential Oscar Nomination Snubs and Surprises:
Picture: The love for Women Talking and Babylon has been slipping lately while The Whale and Triangle of Sadness have been gaining momentum. I think The Whale will take tenth spot for now, replacing Women Talking. But Palme d’Or winner Triangle of Sadness could slip in and be a bigger surprise.
Director: For weeks, everyone said this was Steven Spielberg’s award to lose. But what if The Fabelmans director doesn’t even get nominated? I mean, he did miss out on the BAFTA list and the Daniels won at Critics’ Choice instead of him, so it could be possible. A lot of people think James Cameron will be nominated as well for Avatar: The Way of the Water, but look out for Edward Berger as he got a BAFTA nomination for All Quiet on the Western Front while Cameron missed at both DGA and BAFTA.
Actress: What if rising star Ana de Armas from Blonde took out newcomer Danielle Deadwyler from Till or Michelle Williams from The Fabelmans? Williams did miss at SAG after all. Even more surprising would be if Emma Thompson got in for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande. Don’t totally count her out as she just picked up a BAFTA nomination while Williams was missing there too.
Actor: While I wasn’t the biggest fan of Aftersun, Paul Mescal was very good in it. Many are predicting Tom Cruise will take the fifth spot for his return as Maverick, but Mescal could get in. If he does join the predicted guys Austin Butler, Brendan Fraser, Billy Nighy, and Colin Farrell, all five of the Actor nominees will be first-time Oscar nominees.
Best Supporting Actress: This category has been one of the toughest to predict all season, with Angela Bassett from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Kerry Condon from The Banshees of Inisherin seemingly the only safe bets. I would love to see Nina Hoss from Tár sneak in here as a dark horse. She hasn’t gotten a ton of nominations this season, but she did get an Independent Spirit Award nomination and she helped raise Cate Blanchett up in the film.
Best Supporting Actor: While the The Banshees of Inisherin boys and The Fabelmans boys are battling it out with Ke Huy Quan from Everything Everywhere All at Once and Eddie Redmayne from The Good Nurse, what if recent BAFTA nominee Albrecht Schuch from All Quiet on the Western Front quietly moves in?
Best Adapted Screenplay: For a long time, Sarah Polley was the favorite to win here. The Women Talking hype train has seemingly died though. Could she miss out on the nomination?
Best Original Screenplay: This category seems pretty locked up unless newcomer Charlotte Wells slips in and surprises with Aftersun.
Oscar Nomination Predictions (A-Z in each category):
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of the Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
On the Cusp: Women Talking
Best Director
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Todd Field – Tár
On the Cusp: Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick, James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – Tár
Danielle Deadwyler – Till
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Viola Davis – The Woman King
On the Cusp: Ana de Armas – Blonde
Best Actor
Austin Butler – Elvis
Bill Nighy – Living
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
On the Cusp: Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness
Hong Chau – The Whale
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
On the Cusp: Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Jessie Buckley – Women Talking
Best Supporting Actor
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
On the Cusp: Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans, Brad Pitt – Babylon
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Living
She Said
The Whale
Women Talking
On the Cusp: Glass Onion
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
On the Cusp: Aftersun
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Empire of Light
Top Gun: Maverick
On the Cusp: The Fabelmans, Bardo
Best Costume Design
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Babylon
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
The Woman King
On the Cusp: Corsage
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
On the Cusp: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
On the Cusp: Crimes of the Future
Best Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Fabelmans
On the Cusp: The Batman
Best Original Score
The Banshees of Inisherin
Babylon
The Fabelmans
Pinocchio
Women Talking
On the Cusp: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Song
“Carolina” – Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa” – Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” – RRR
On the Cusp: “Stand Up” – Till
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
On the Cusp: Babylon
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Top Gun: Maverick
On the Cusp: Jurassic World: Dominion
Best Animated Feature
The Bad Guys
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Pinocchio
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
On the Cusp: Wendell & Wild
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
Navalny
The Territory
On the Cusp: Descendant, Moonage Daydream
Best International Film
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
Decision to Leave
EO
On the Cusp: Bardo
Best Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
New Moon
Save Ralph
On the Cusp: My Year of Dicks
Best Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers
The Flagmakers
How Do You Measure a Year?
Nuisance Bear
38 at the Garden
On the Cusp: Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices From a Plantation Prison
Best Live Action Short
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Nakam
The Red Suitcase
On the Cusp: Warsha
Nomination Prediction Tally (Films With More Than 1 Nomination Predicted):
The Banshees of Inisherin – 9
The Fabelmans – 8
Elvis – 7
Everything Everywhere All at Once – 7
All Quiet on the Western Front – 6
Babylon – 6
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – 6
Top Gun: Maverick – 6
Avatar: The Way of Water – 5
The Whale – 5
Tár – 4
The Batman – 3
Pinocchio – 3
Living – 2
Triangle of Sadness – 2
The Woman King – 2
Women Talking – 2
