Oscar season is here!
The summer movie season is now over, with a domination from “Barbenheimer.” The Telluride, Venice, and Toronto festivals have just ended, where Poor Things provided the most electricity among the fests. The New York Film Festival is around the corner, followed by end-of-season surprises in November and December (The Color Purple and Napoleon are big question marks). It’s an exciting time to be a movie fan as Oscar season is heating up and great movies are releasing left and right.
As of now, September 17th, I predict Oscar night will be dominated by Poor Things, Oppenheimer, The Color Purple (unless it significantly underwhelms), Barbie, and Killers of the Flower Moon in terms of nomination amounts, ranging from nine to eleven nominations each. Maestro and The Holdovers are looking strong too as I have each of them currently running with six nominations each. The buzz is really alive with all of these films.
Currently, I believe it will be a Poor Things vs. Oppenheimer showdown in terms of most wins and for what is getting the top prize of Best Picture. I have Poor Things walking away with four wins and Oppenheimer with seven wins, including Best Director and Best Picture. Christopher Nolan has the “it’s his time” narrative and it doesn’t hurt that Oppenheimer has become the highest-grossing biopic ever.
Here are all of my Oscar predictions as of now, minus the short film categories. The *** indicates who I think will be the winner in each category. I also include nomination and win totals at the bottom.
Side note: Yes, Barbie might be campaigning in Original Screenplay, but I believe the Academy will shift it to Adapted Screenplay since it is clearly based off of a previous property. This has happened before with other films, such as Moonlight (2016).
Best Picture
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
***Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Other Possibilities:
American Fiction
Napoleon
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Director
Alexander Payne – The Holdovers
***Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig – Barbie
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Other Possibilities:
Celine Song – Past Lives
Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Best Actress
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
***Emma Stone – Poor Things
Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple
Greta Lee – Past Lives
Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall
Other Possibilities:
Annette Bening – Nyad
Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla
Margot Robbie – Barbie
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
***Colman Domingo – Rustin
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Other Possibilities:
Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers
Barry Keoghan – Saltburn
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
***Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Penelope Cruz – Ferrari
Other Possibilities:
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Julianne Moore – May December
Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple
Best Supporting Actor
Colman Domingo – The Color Purple
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
***Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Other Possibilities:
Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers
John Magaro – Past Lives
Willem Dafoe – Poor Things
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
***Poor Things
Other Possibilities:
All of Us Strangers
The Color Purple
The Zone of Interest
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
***Past Lives
Other Possibilities:
Dream Scenario
Rustin
Saltburn
Best Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
***Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Other Possibilities:
The Color Purple
Napoleon
Saltburn
Best Costume Design
Barbie
The Color Purple
Napoleon
***Poor Things
Wonka
Other Possibilities:
The Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Best Editing
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
***Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Other Possibilities:
Barbie
Ferrari
Maestro
Best Production Design
Asteroid City
***Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Wonka
Other Possibilities:
The Color Purple
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nuggets
Elemental
***Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Wish
Other Possibilities:
Nimona
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Barbie
The Color Purple
Maestro
***Poor Things
Rustin
Other Possibilities:
The Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Napoleon
Wonka
Best Sound
The Color Purple
The Creator
***Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Zone of Interest
Other Possibilities:
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Rebel Moon
Best Visual Effects
***The Creator
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
The Little Mermaid
The Marvels
Rebel Moon
Other Possibilities:
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Original Score
The Boy and the Heron
The Color Purple
***Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Other Possibilities:
Elemental
Past Lives
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Best Original Song
“Better Place” – Trolls Band Together
***“I’m Just Ken” – Barbie
“Peaches” – The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Untitled Original Song – The Color Purple
“What Was I Made For?” – Barbie
Other Possibilities:
“All Love is Love” – Dicks: The Musical
“Am I Dreaming” – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
“Road to Freedom” – Rustin
Best Documentary Feature
American Symphony
***Beyond Utopia
The Eternal Memory
The Pigeon Tunnel
Stamped from the Beginning
Other Possibilities:
Anselm
Little Richard: I Am Everything
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Best International Feature
About Dry Grasses – Turkey
***Anatomy of a Fall – France
Perfect Days – Japan
The Teachers’ Lounge – Germany
The Zone of Interest – United Kingdom
Other Possibilities:
Fallen Leaves – Finland
La Chimera – Italy
Omen – Belgium
Total Nomination and Win Counts:
Poor Things – 11 nominations, winning 4
Oppenheimer – 10 nominations, winning 7
The Color Purple – 10 nominations, winning 0
Barbie – 9 nominations, winning 2
Killers of the Flower Moon – 9 nominations, winning 1
The Holdovers – 6 nominations, winning 0
Maestro – 6 nominations, winning 0
Anatomy of a Fall – 4 nominations, winning 1
Past Lives – 3 nominations, winning 1
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – 3 nominations, winning 1
The Zone of Interest – 3 nominations, winning 0
Rustin – 2 nominations, winning 1
The Creator – 2 nominations, winning 1
The Boy and the Heron – 2 nominations, winning 0
Wonka – 2 nominations, winning 0
Beyond Utopia – 1 nomination, winning 1
Ferrari – 1 nomination, winning 0
American Fiction – 1 nomination, winning 0
May December – 1 nomination, winning 0
El Conde – 1 nomination, winning 0
Napoleon – 1 nomination, winning 0
Asteroid City – 1 nomination, winning 0
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nuggets – 1 nomination, winning 0
Elemental – 1 nomination, winning 0
Wish – 1 nomination, winning 0
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – 1 nomination, winning 0
The Little Mermaid – 1 nomination, winning 0
The Marvels – 1 nomination, winning 0
Rebel Moon – 1 nomination, winning 0
The Super Mario Bros. Movie – 1 nomination, winning 0
Trolls Band Together – 1 nomination, winning 0
American Symphony – 1 nomination, winning 0
The Eternal Memory – 1 nomination, winning 0
The Pigeon Tunnel – 1 nomination, winning 0
Stamped from the Beginning – 1 nomination, winning 0
About Dry Grasses – 1 nomination, winning 0
Perfect Days – 1 nomination, winning 0
The Teachers’ Lounge – 1 nomination, winning 0
