Since I already gave my first look at the potential nominations for the film categories at the 80th Golden Globes earlier this week, it’s time to give the TV categories the same treatment, and boy is there a lot here to discuss. Some may dismiss the TV categories because they’re not always as flashy or “high-profile” (yuck) as the films in contention, but doing so dismisses some of the most original and innovative art being developed in our industry in this day and age, from the twisty sci-fi social satire Severance to the blistering (and bewildering) black comedy Barry and so much more.
As a result, some of these races are stacked. The aforementioned Severance will have to fend off The Crown in Drama Series, while the Supporting races are always a struggle to predict since they can include contenders from multiple types of series (though it’s slightly easier this year since the Supporting awards were split between comedy/drama and miniseries), and don’t even get me started on the three-way race for the Best Actress in a Drama Series award between Elizabeth Debicki, Zendaya, and Imelda Staunton. But, enough biding our time – let’s just jump right in and see what awaits us in all of these hotly anticipated match-ups.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Better Call Saul
House of the Dragon
As mentioned above, I think the race for the win in Best Television Series – Drama will come down between the stellar first season of Severance and the sure-to-be-buzzy fifth season of The Crown, which will cover the fallout caused by the separation of Prince Charles and Princess Diana (any Diana property is bound to be big these days). House of the Dragon should also show up following its massive success this fall (and the HFPA were always fans of Game of Thrones as well), while Better Call Saul could also contend – despite never being nominated here before (though Bob Odenkirk himself has been four times) – due to the deafening acclaim for its sixth and final season. Lastly, I’ll grab Stranger Things for its blockbuster fourth season which captured the cultural zeitgeist in a way few shows ever have. Ozark is also a possibility – and it’s been nominated once here last season – but the divisive response to its finale could hurt it.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Only Murders in the Building
ALT: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
I think this is Abbott Elementary‘s for the taking, in all honesty (it probably would’ve won Outstanding Comedy Series at the Emmys if Ted Lasso wasn’t there, and it’ll have the advantage of not just contending here for its first season, but for the first half of its second as well), though former nominees (and former winners, in the first show’s case) like Hacks, Barry, and Only Murders in the Building will be up there as well, even if the win momentum is with Abbott. I also expect Hulu hit The Bear to make an appearance for its widely adored freshman season that became a word-of-mouth sensation this summer, while The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel could also contend, but airing so early in the year (and lacking much buzz) may keep it on the outside looking in.
BEST MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM
Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Welcome to Chippendales
The White Lotus: Sicily*
ALT: Pam and Tommy
Oddly enough, the first season of The White Lotus wasn’t even nominated for this category last year. Methinks the Golden Globes will seek to right that wrong with Sicily, and I have all the faith in the world that this second season from showrunner Mike White will be just as good – if not better – than the first. Look for The Dropout to also appear – buoyed by its baity lead performance – while Netflix’s recent ratings behemoth Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story could also pop into the top five thanks to its own awards-worthy lead actor (and its mainstream crossover appeal). The Taron Egerton-led Black Bird made quite a splash on Apple TV+ this summer too and should be circling a nom, while I’m additionally keeping my eye on Kumail Nanjiani’s male stripper crime saga Welcome to Chippendales, which could get in at the expense of another buzzy title from Hulu, Pam and Tommy.
BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Jason Bateman – Ozark
Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul*
Jonathan Pryce – The Crown
Adam Scott – Severance
Dominic West – The Crown
ALT: Paddy Considine – House of the Dragon
Even though he lost the Emmy to Lee Jung-jae, I suspect that the winter awards will be far kinder to Bob Odenkirk for his performance in the final season of Better Call Saul, and it’ll all start with the Golden Globes. Unless Jonathan Pryce or Dominic West are just undeniable for The Crown, I don’t know if anyone else has a strong enough combo of “performance + narrative” to take Odenkirk down. Look for Ozark‘s Jason Bateman and Severance‘s Adam Scott to fill the category out, though I’d also keep my eye out for Paddy Considine in House of the Dragon, who is easily one of the MVPs of the HBO show so far.
BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Bill Hader – Barry*
Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White – The Bear
Ramy Youssef – Ramy
ALT: Donald Glover – Atlanta
Bill Hader can breath a sigh of relief since Jason Sudeikis can’t be nominated here, because that should allow him to sail to an easy win for his towering performance in the third season of Barry – the only upset I could see is perhaps from Jeremy Allen White for The Bear, because it’s an equally powerful performance that delivers on both the dramatic and comedic fronts, and the Globes love to anoint a “fresh face,” but I’ll stick with Hader for now. The Only Murders boys (Steve Martin and Martin Short) should also nab easy noms here, while that fifth spot is a toss-up between Ramy Youssef and Donald Glover. Both are two time nominees (and one-time winners), so I think it’ll come down to whose show is stronger at this point in the season. Maybe Glover gets a boost from Atlanta‘s finals season, but it also feels like buzz has dwindled significantly on the show, so perhaps Ramy rises above with its premiere this Friday.
BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM
Taron Egerton – Black Bird
Colin Firth – The Staircase
Kumail Nanjiani – Welcome to Chippendales
Evan Peters – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story*
Sebastian Stan – Pam and Tommy
ALT: Andrew Garfield – Under the Banner of Heaven
Evan Peters’ bone-chilling portrayal of Jeffrey Dahmer in Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story feels tailor-made for awards attention. No matter what online controversies the show must weather, this is a true-blue actor’s showcase through and through, and I suspect he could become the frontrunner for this category for all of the winter awards. Black Bird‘s Taron Egerton and Welcome to Chippendales‘ Kumail Nanjiani should also be strong contenders – with or without their shows receiving corresponding miniseries nominations (though it’d certainly help) – while Pam and Tommy‘s Sebastian Stan and The Staircase‘s Colin Firth will represent the early year miniseries crop, and Under the Banner of Heaven‘s Andrew Garfield could also take one out to make it into the final line-up (though his show sadly feels like the least buzziest of these three).
BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown*
Laura Linney – Ozark
Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale
Imelda Staunton – The Crown
Zendaya – Euphoria
ALT: Britt Lower – Severance
There’s an argument to be made that Zendaya could steamroll through the winter awards as well after her second Emmy win – it’s one helluva performance and Euphoria‘s popularity has increased significantly since the first season (when she was snubbed at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards) – but I think Elizabeth Debicki is gonna give her a run for her money (to say nothing of Imelda Staunton’s equally tantalizing campaign for playing the late Queen Elizabeth). Debicki will be bringing Princess Diana back to life for some of her most iconic (and tragic) moments, and I think it could be a performance too baity to ignore. Look for past faves Elisabeth Moss and Laura Linney to also score easy nods, while Severance‘s Britt Lower is really the only actress I think that could upset this five, though even that’s a long shot.
BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
Hannah Einbinder – Hacks
Selena Gomez – Only Murders in the Building
Jean Smart – Hacks*
ALT: Christina Applegate – Dead to Me
Jean Smart is still the frontrunner here for her stellar second season of Hacks, but don’t count out Quinta Brunson either, who likely came close to winning the Emmy and could benefit from a bump for Abbott Elementary across the board. Hannah Einbinder was nominated here last year for Hacks, so I’ll keep her here again instead of shifting her to Supporting, while Rachel Brosnahan should be another easy nom for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel even if it falters elsewhere. I think Selena Gomez can also get in as a result of combined goodwill for both her first and second seasons on Only Murders in the Building (and she gave an even stronger performance the second time around), though Dead to Me‘s Christina Applegate and The Flight Attendant‘s Kaley Cuoco could also be surprise sole nominees for their shows – especially the former, given that it’s her show’s final season.
BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM
Toni Collette – The Staircase
Julia Garner – Inventing Anna
Lily James – Pam and Tommy
Julia Roberts – Gaslit
Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout*
ALT: Anne Hathaway – WeCrashed
Amanda Seyfried should continue her awards sweep for The Dropout at the Golden Globes, while I expect Pam and Tommy‘s Lily James and yes, even Inventing Anna‘s Julia Garner, to join her, due to the fact that they have two of the showiest performances in contention and will benefit from their prior Emmy buzz, too. Toni Collette could also get a boost from that – especially if she coattails co-star Colin Firth – while I look to Golden Globes’ perennial favorite Julia Roberts to net a nom here as well for Showtime’s Gaslit, even if she couldn’t make the cut at the Emmys. It’s a relatively light field this year, so I’m not sure who else has a legitimate chance of cracking the final five, but Anne Hathaway (as another big name in this bunch) could contend for WeCrashed.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL/COMEDY OR DRAMA
Matt Smith – House of the Dragon*
John Turturro – Severance
Christopher Walken – Severance
Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler – Barry
ALT: Ebon Mass-Bachrach – The Bear
Yay, they made the Supporting categories a little less crowded this year! (Though we still have to deal with comedy and drama in this one). I think Matt Smith is almost a shoo-in for his brilliant and buzzy performance as Daemon on House of the Dragon – he’s the actor I’m most confident in receiving individual recognition – and he could very well be the frontrunner in an open field like this. Henry Winkler was once again incredibly acclaimed on this season of Barry, and he has a scorcher of a final scene, so slot him in too, while John Turturro is a major acting standout on Severance (and was also an Emmy nominee) so he could show up as well, along with co-star (and co Emmy nominee) Christopher Walken. Lastly, Tyler James Williams could benefit from Abbott love overall, and he’s another contender who can claim an Emmy nomination as a feather in his cap. It’s tough to say who my one alt would be – there are many other worthy performances in contention – but maybe Ebon Mass-Bachrach benefits from The Bear love.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL/COMEDY OR DRAMA
Patricia Arquette – Severance
Julia Garner – Ozark
Janelle James – Abbott Elementary
Lesley Manville – The Crown
Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary*
ALT: Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul
Emmy winner Sheryl Lee Ralph will head into the winter awards as the frontrunner in this category (as she should), but I also wouldn’t count out three-time Emmy winner Julia Garner – since this will be the last time the HFPA could honor her. Lesley Manville will also be up there for playing Princess Margaret on this season of The Crown, while three-time Golden Globe winner Patricia Arquette can contend for her Emmy-nominated work on Severance, especially if the show overperforms. There’s room for another Abbott fave, Janelle James, and she has such a beloved performance amongst the show’s supporters that I see her doing quite well with voters, while Rhea Seehorn is another one to watch out for (despite not ever being nominated here for Better Call Saul, she had her Emmy breakthrough this year).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM
F. Murray Abraham – The White Lotus: Sicily
Naveen Andrews – The Dropout
Murray Bartlett – Welcome to Chippendales
Paul Walter Hauser – Black Bird*
Seth Rogen – Pam and Tommy
ALT: Dan Stevens – Welcome to Chippendales
Paul Walter Hauser received raves – the best reviews of his career, in fact – as a simple-minded serial killer on Black Bird, and given the baity subject matter associated with the role, I have to assume he could be our frontrunner here (much like Evan Peters in Lead). Pam and Tommy‘s Seth Rogen can benefit from being a big name in a much buzzed about series (and he was already Emmy nominated), while Naveen Andrew was inexplicably ignored by the Television Academy, but plays such a crucial part in The Dropout – and complements Amanda Seyfried’s performance so well – that I expect him to show up, too. Then, sight unseen, I’ll grab F. Murray Abraham for The White Lotus: Sicily (I admittedly don’t know much about this role, but Gold Derby seems high on him, and he’s an incredibly acclaimed actor) and recent Emmy winner Murray Bartlett for Welcome to Chippendales (though he could be swapped out for Dan Stevens in the same show – or maybe both get in?).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM
Analeigh Ashford – Welcome to Chippendales
Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus: Sicily
Juliette Lewis – Welcome to Chippendales
Niecy Nash – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story*
Aubrey Plaza – The White Lotus: Sicily
ALT: Laurie Metcalf – The Dropout
Niecy Nash has generated almost just as much acclaim for her performance in Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story as Evan Peters has (and even those who don’t like the show seem to like her), so I have to say she’s probably ahead right now, especially with no one else to compete with from her own show, like other contenders will have to – along with how great an honor this would be to “award” all her work in TV over the years. Jennifer Coolidge is right up there though – the HFPA didn’t give her the win last year, so will they circle back? – though it remains to be seen how big her role is on this season of The White Lotus, and what if Aubrey Plaza is the standout instead? I’ve filled out the line-up with two big names from Welcome to Chippendales – Analeigh Ashford and Juliette Lewis – though we also know very little about their roles/performances yet, so don’t be surprised if another big name like The Dropout‘s Laurie Metcalf takes one of their places.