New Oscar Predictions With a First Look at the Documentary Feature Race

With the Gotham Award nominations out last week, the season is fully underway. Over the next week, several countries will announce their official submissions for International Feature, and studios will submit their animated and documentary features, original scores and songs. All of this is in preparation for the shortlists which will be announced in early December.

 

Best Picture

There haven’t been any big changes here. Things are still tracking for Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast, which has delighted and charmed fall festival-goers. But it’s rare for the early frontrunner to last until the end, so it remains to be seen how academy members embrace other contenders. The strongest competitor seems to be The Power of the Dog, which is gaining the right type of momentum. But with the conversation around Dune this weekend, Villeneuve’s latest sci fi epic can’t be ignored. It could be on track to become this year’s Mad Max: Fury Road, with a lot of tech noms that lead into recognition for the director and the film as a whole.

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  2. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  3. “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  4. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  5. “C’mon C’mon” (A24)
  6. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple Original Films)
  7. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix)
  8. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
  9. “Flee” (Neon)
  10. “CODA” (Apple)

Runners Up:

11. “House of Gucci” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
12. “Spencer” (Neon)
13. “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
14. “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
15. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
16. “Cyrano” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
17. “A Hero” (Amazon Studios)
18. “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
19. “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures)
20. “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  2. Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  3. Denis Villeneuve, “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  4. Reinaldo Marcus Green, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
  5. Joel Coen, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)

Runners Up:

6. Pedro Almodóvar, “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
8. Lin-Manuel Miranda, “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix)
9. Mike Mills, “C’mon C’mon” (A24)
10. Ridley Scott, “House of Gucci” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  2. Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  3. Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
  4. Peter Dinklage, “Cyrano” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
  5. Nicolas Cage, “Pig” (Neon)

Runners Up:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, “C’mon C’mon” (A24)
7. Clifton Collins, Jr., “Jockey” (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
9. Andrew Garfield, “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix)
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)

Best Actress

  1. Kristen Stewart, “Spencer” (Neon)
  2. Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
  3. Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
  4. Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
  5. Frances McDormand, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)

Runners Up:

6. Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
7. Tessa Thompson, “Passing” (Netflix)
8. Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
9. Emilia Jones, “CODA” (Apple)
10. Jennifer Hudson, “Respect” (Netflix)

TENDER BAR

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Ben Affleck, “The Tender Bar” (Amazon Studios)
  2. Jamie Dornan, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  3. Ciaran Hinds, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  4. Bradley Cooper, “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
  5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)

Runners Up:

6. Idris Elba, “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix)
7. J.K. Simmons, “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
8. Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
9. Corey Hawkins, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
10. Jason Isaacs, “Mass” (Bleecker Street)

THE POWER OF THE DOG : KIRSTEN DUNST as ROSE GORDON in THE POWER OF THE DOG. Cr. KIRSTY GRIFFIN/COURTESY OF NETFLIX

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  2. Ann Dowd, “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
  3. Caitriona Balfe, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  4. Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  5. Judi Dench, “Belfast” (Focus Features)

Runners Up:

6. Ruth Negga, “Passing” (Netflix)
7. Marlee Matlin, “CODA” (Apple)
8. Martha Plimpton, “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
9. Dakota Johnson, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
10. Regina King, “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “C’mon C’mon” (A24); Mike Mills
  2. “Belfast” (Focus Features); Kenneth Branagh
  3. “Licorice Pizza” (UA Releasing/MGM); Paul Thomas Anderson
  4. “King Richard” (Warner Bros); Zach Baylin
  5. “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix); Jeymes Samuel, Boaz Yakin

Runners Up:

6. “A Hero” (Amazon Studios); Asghar Farhadi
7. “Mass” (Bleecker Street); Fran Kranz
8. “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon); Aaron Sorkin
9. “Spencer” (Neon); Steven Knight
10. “Bergman Island” (IFC Films); Mia Hansen-Løve

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix); Jane Campion
  2. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple); Joel Coen
  3. “Dune” (Warner Bros); Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth
  4. “The Tender Bar” (Amazon Studios); William Monahan
  5. “CODA” (Apple); Sian Heder

Runners Up:

6. “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix); Maggie Gyllenhaal
7. “Passing” (Netflix); Rebecca Hall
8. “House of Gucci” (United Artists/MGM); Becky Johnston, Roberto Bentivegna
9. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix); Steven Levenson
10. “The Green Knight” (A24); David Lowery

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Flee” (Neon)
  2. “The Mitchells vs. The Machines” (Netflix)
  3. “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures)
  4. “Belle” (GKIDS)
  5. “Ron’s Gone Wrong” (20th Century Studios)

Runners Up:

6. “Luca” (Disney/Pixar)
7. “Raya and the Last Dragon” (Walt Disney Pictures)
8. “The Summit of the Gods” (Netflix)
9. “Vivo” (Netflix)
10. “Cryptozoo” (Magnolia Pictures)

Best Documentary Feature Film

With Flee possibly nominated in all four “feature film” categories (animated, international, documentary and Best Picture), it’s best shot is either going to be in animated or right here. The team behind the Oscar-winning film, Free Solo, is back with the story that gripped the entire world and may just edge out it’s toughest competition. Documentary Feature is typically one of the toughest to predict, though, and it’s one where early frontrunners often don’t even make the final cut. (Think Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Perfect Strangers, and Jane.) Elsewhere, Liz Garbus brings us a film that is both beautiful and could garner some sentimental votes from those who grew up with Jacques Cousteau. Quest Love’s Summer of Soul is a well-received celebration of culture and a vital volume in the history of music, America, and the 1960s. And the very personal and often self-deprecatingly humorous Introducing, Selma Blair is sure to captivate viewers. Will it be enough to secure a place with the Academy? The shortlist of 15 titles will be announced in December.

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “The Rescue” (National Geographic); dir. Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
  2. “Flee” (Neon); dir. Jonas Poher Rasmussen
  3. “Becoming Cousteau” (National Geographic); dir. Liz Garbus
  4. “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (Searchlight Pictures); dir. Quest Love
  5. “Introducing, Selma Blair” (Discovery+); dir. Rachel Fleit

Runners Up:

6. “Who We Are: A Chronicle of Racism in America” (Sony Pictures Classics); dir. Emily Kunstler, Sarah Kunstler
7. “Procession” (Netflix); dir. Robert Greene
8. “The Velvet Underground” (Apple Original Films); dir. Todd Haynes
9. “Julia” (Sony Pictures Classics); dir. Julie Cohen, Betsy West
10. “Francesco” (Discovery+); dir. Evgeny Afineevsky

 

Best International Feature Film

Be sure to check out the latest submissions from each country and territory here.

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “The Worst Person in the World” (Neon) — Norway, dir. Joaquim Trier
  2. “A Hero” (Amazon Studios) — Iran, dir. Asghar Farhadi
  3. “Flee” (Neon/Participant) — Denmark, dir. Jonas Poher Rasmussen
  4. “Memoria” (Neon) — Columbia, dir. Apichatpong Weerasethakul
  5. “Compartment No. 6” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Finland, dir. Juho Kuosmanen

Runners Up:

6. “Lamb” (A24) — Iceland, dir. Valdimar Jóhannsson
7. “Leave No Traces” (TBD) — Poland, dir. Jan P. Matuszyński
8. “Titane” (Neon) — France, dir. Julia Ducournau
9. “I’m Your Man” (Bleecker Street) — Germany, dir. Maria Schrader
10.  “Escape from Mogadishu” (Well Go USA) — South Korea, dir. Seung-wan Ryoo

Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros); Greig Fraser
  2. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix); Ari Wegner
  3. “Belfast” (Focus Features); Haris Zambarloukos
  4. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple); Bruno Delbonnel
  5. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures); Dan Laustsen

Runners Up:

6. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios); Janusz Kaminski
7. “C’mon C’mon” (A24); Robbie Ryan
8. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM); Michael Bauman and Paul Thomas Anderson
9. “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM); Seamus McGarvey
10. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix); Alice Brooks

Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Spencer” (Neon); Jacqueline Durran
  2. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24); Mary Zophres
  3. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures); Luis Sequeira
  4. “Belfast” (Focus Features); Charlotte Walter
  5. “Dune” (Warner Bros); Jacqueline West, Bob Morgan

Runners Up:

6. “House of Gucci” (United Artists/MGM); Janty Yates
7. “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM); Massimo Cantini Parrini
8. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM); Mark Bridges
9. “Last Night in Soho” (Focus Features); Odile Dicks-Mireaux
10. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios); Paul Tazewell

Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros); Joe Walker
  2. “Belfast” (Focus Features); Úna Ní Dhonghaíle
  3. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix); Peter Sciberras
  4. “King Richard” (Warner Bros); Pamela Martin
  5. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix); Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum

Runners Up:

6. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures); Cam McLauchlin
7. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple); Lucian Johnston
8. “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix); Hank Corwin
9. “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics); Teresa Font
10. “C’mon C’mon” (A24); Jennifer Vecchiarello

Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
  2. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  3. “Spencer” (Neon)
  4. “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  5. “House of Gucci” (United Artists/MGM)

Runners Up:

6. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM)
7. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
8. “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
9. “Last Night in Soho” (Focus Features)
10. “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures)

Music – Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Jonny Greenwood, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  2. Hans Zimmer, “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  3. Carter Burwell, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
  4. Nicholas Britell, “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
  5. Kris Bowers, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)

Runners Up:

6. Jonny Greenwood, “Spencer” (Neon)
7. Jonny Greenwood, “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM)
8. Alexandre Desplat, “Nightmare Alley”
9. Alberto Iglesias, “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
10. Alexandre Desplat, “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures)

Music – Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Down to Joy” from “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  2. “Guns Go Bang” from “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix)
  3. “No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die” (MGM)
  4. “Be Alive” from “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  5. “Every Letter” from “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM)

Runners Up:

6. “Beyond the Shore” from “CODA” (Apple)
7. “So May We Start” from “Annette” (Amazon Studios)
8. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from “Respect” (MGM)
9. “The Anonymous Ones” from “Dear Evan Hansen” (Universal Pictures)
10. “Columbia, Mi Encanto” from “Encanto” (Walt Disney Animation)

Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  2. “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  3. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
  4. “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM)
  5. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)

Runners Up:

6. “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures)
7 “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM)
8. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
9. “House of Gucci” (United Artists/MGM)
10. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)

Sound

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  2. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  3. “The Matrix: Resurrections” (Warner Bros)
  4. “Eternals” (Marvel)
  5. “Belfast” (Focus Features)

Runners Up:

6. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix)
7. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
8. “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM)
9. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
10. “The Last Duel” (20th Century Studios)

Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  2. “Eternals” (Marvel)
  3. “The Matrix: Resurrections” (Warner Bros)
  4. “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (Marvel)
  5. “Godzilla vs. Kong” (Warner Bros)

Runners Up:

6. “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (Marvel)
7. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
8. “A Quiet Place II” (Paramount Pictures
9. “The Tomorrow War” (Amazon Studios)
10. “The Suicide Squad” (Warner Bros)

Best Animated Short Film

Coming soon!

Documentary Short Subject

Coming soon!

Short Film – Live Action

Coming soon!

The 94th Academy Awards will be held Sunday, March 26, 2022.

Written by
Karen Peterson is the Awards Editor for We Live Entertainment. She previously worked as the Assistant Editor at Awards Circuit, now owned by Variety. Her work can also be found at Citizen Dame and at the Watch and Talk podcast. Her non-awards season hobbies include Angels baseball, taking pictures of other peoples' pets, and tweeting about The Bachelor franchise.

Your Vote

0 0

Lost Password

Please enter your username or email address. You will receive a link to create a new password via email.

Sign Up