New Oscar Predictions for November 1: ‘House of Gucci’ Arrives Fashionably Late

We made it to November 1! There is a lot happening this month as guilds and critics groups start opening up their nominations and some start to announce their winners. A few big films will be hitting theaters, too, with Belfast, Spencer, and King Richard all looking to light up the silver screen. And after last week’s unveiling of the new trailer for House of Gucci, the excitement for Ridley Scott’s family murder drama is high. We had to make some room for it in a few key categories. As will be a frequent reminder all season long, predictions are not preferences. Just because I say that something *might* happen doesn’t mean I’m hoping for it. With that in mind, let’s take a look at this week’s predictions.

Best Picture

Until there is a reason to think otherwise, Belfast is still in the top spot. We’ll see if that changes when it makes it’s official premiere next week. With films like Passing and Mass drawing a lot of attention in recent days, could they be on the verge of breaking into the lineup? Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci finally gave us a new trailer a few days ago and the response was overwhelming. If the finished product lives up to the hype, Scott could just find himself with another Best Picture nominee for the first time since The Martian in 2015.

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  2. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  3. “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  4. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  5. “C’mon C’mon” (A24)
  6. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple Original Films)
  7. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix)
  8. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
  9. “Flee” (Neon)
  10. “CODA” (Apple Original Films)

Runners Up:

11. “House of Gucci” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
12. “Spencer” (Neon)
13. “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
14. “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
15. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
16. “Cyrano” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
17. “A Hero” (Amazon Studios)
18. “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
19. “Passing” (Netflix)
20. “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)

Best Director

We haven’t made any changes here as we still need to see how a few films are received by the industry. There’s definitely room for movement and a few directors may emerge, but until we know more, this will suffice.

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  2. Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  3. Denis Villeneuve, “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  4. Reinaldo Marcus Green, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
  5. Joel Coen, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)

Runners Up:

6. Pedro Almodóvar, “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
8. Lin-Manuel Miranda, “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix)
9. Mike Mills, “C’mon C’mon” (A24)
10. Ridley Scott, “House of Gucci” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)

Best Actor

The buzz has all but completely died for Cyrano, so Dinklage has moved down a bit to make way for Clifton Collins Jr. whose work in Jockey is sparking a lot of conversation, particularly after his interview with Variety’s Clayton Davis. It still looks like Will Smith’s year, and he’s certainly doing the right things in terms of campaigning so far, but nothing is sure in November.

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  2. Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  3. Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
  4. Clifton Collins, Jr., “Jockey” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  5. Nicolas Cage, “Pig” (Neon)

Runners Up:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, “C’mon C’mon” (A24)
7. Peter Dinklage, “Cyrano” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
8. Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
9. Andrew Garfield, “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix)
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)

Best Actress

Some changes here in order, but edge still goes to Stewart. We’ve shifted some things as just about all talk of The Eyes of Tammy Faye has ceased. Jessica Chastain is going to really need to put herself out there to stay in the conversation, even with her transformative work, because Penélope Cruz and Tessa Thompson are both right there at the door.

  1. Kristen Stewart, “Spencer” (Neon)
  2. Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
  3. Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
  4. Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
  5. Frances McDormand, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)

Runners Up:

6. Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
7. Tessa Thompson, “Passing” (Netflix)
8. Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
9. Emilia Jones, “CODA” (Apple)
10. Jennifer Hudson, “Respect” (Netflix)

Best Supporting Actor

We’ve made a few moves here in Supporting Actor, which feels like one of the most fluid of the races. After the wild enthusiasm over the new House of Gucci trailer last week, and considering how often acting performances are tied in to makeup artistry, we have moved Jared Leto into the predictions. Remember, predictions are not preferences, and while there are some great actors we would really like to champion here, this space is for looking at what the Academy is likely to do. And if the excitement over Gucci holds, look for one of the actors to get swept up in moment. I’ve also moved up the men from Belfast. If it’s our Best Picture winner, it makes sense for it to take at least one acting prize too.

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Ciaran Hinds, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  2. Jamie Dornan, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  3. Ben Affleck, “The Tender Bar” (Amazon Studios)
  4. Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  5. Jared Leto, “House of Gucci” (UA/MGM)

Runners Up:

6. Idris Elba, “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix)
7. Corey Hawkins, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
8. Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
9. Jason Isaacs, “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
10. Bradley Cooper, “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)

THE POWER OF THE DOG : KIRSTEN DUNST as ROSE GORDON in THE POWER OF THE DOG. Cr. KIRSTY GRIFFIN/COURTESY OF NETFLIX

Best Supporting Actress

Caitriona Balfe is coming up fast, but Netflix is going to do whatever it takes to win an acting statuette this year, and Supporting Actress seems their surest path. While many are ready to give this one to Balfe, I still think long overlooked Kirsten Dunst could be taking home her first Oscar.

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  2. Caitriona Balfe, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  3. Judi Dench, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  4. Ann Dowd, “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
  5. Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)

Runners Up:

6. Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
7. Marlee Matlin, “CODA” (Apple)
8. Ruth Negga, “Passing” (Netflix)
9. Martha Plimpton, “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
10. Regina King, “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “C’mon C’mon” (A24); Mike Mills
  2. “Belfast” (Focus Features); Kenneth Branagh
  3. “Licorice Pizza” (UA Releasing/MGM); Paul Thomas Anderson
  4. “King Richard” (Warner Bros); Zach Baylin
  5. “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix); Jeymes Samuel, Boaz Yakin

Runners Up:

6. “A Hero” (Amazon Studios); Asghar Farhadi
7. “Mass” (Bleecker Street); Fran Kranz
8. “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon); Aaron Sorkin
9. “Spencer” (Neon); Steven Knight
10. “Bergman Island” (IFC Films); Mia Hansen-Løve

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix); Jane Campion
  2. “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix); Maggie Gyllenhaal
  3. “The Tender Bar” (Amazon Studios); William Monahan
  4. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple); Joel Coen
  5. “CODA” (Apple); Sian Heder

Runners Up:

6. “Dune” (Warner Bros); Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth
7. “Passing” (Netflix); Rebecca Hall
8. “House of Gucci” (United Artists/MGM); Becky Johnston, Roberto Bentivegna
9. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix); Steven Levenson
10. “The Green Knight” (A24); David Lowery

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Flee” (Neon)
  2. “The Mitchells vs. The Machines” (Netflix)
  3. “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures)
  4. “Belle” (GKIDS)
  5. “Luca” (Disney/Pixar)

Runners Up:

6.”Ron’s Gone Wrong” (20th Century Studios)
7. “Raya and the Last Dragon” (Walt Disney Pictures)
8. “The Summit of the Gods” (Netflix)
9. “Vivo” (Netflix)
10. “Cryptozoo” (Magnolia Pictures)

Best Documentary Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “The Rescue” (National Geographic); dir. Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
  2. “Flee” (Neon); dir. Jonas Poher Rasmussen
  3. “Becoming Cousteau” (National Geographic); dir. Liz Garbus
  4. “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (Searchlight Pictures); dir. Quest Love
  5. “Introducing, Selma Blair” (Discovery+); dir. Rachel Fleit

Runners Up:

6. “Who We Are: A Chronicle of Racism in America” (Sony Pictures Classics); dir. Emily Kunstler, Sarah Kunstler
7. “Procession” (Netflix); dir. Robert Greene
8. “The Velvet Underground” (Apple Original Films); dir. Todd Haynes
9. “Julia” (Sony Pictures Classics); dir. Julie Cohen, Betsy West
10. “Francesco” (Discovery+); dir. Evgeny Afineevsky

 

Best International Feature Film

Be sure to check out the latest submissions from each country and territory here.

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “The Worst Person in the World” (Neon) — Norway, dir. Joaquim Trier
  2. “Flee” (Neon/Participant) — Denmark, dir. Jonas Poher Rasmussen
  3. “A Hero” (Amazon Studios) — Iran, dir. Asghar Farhadi
  4. “Memoria” (Neon) — Columbia, dir. Apichatpong Weerasethakul
  5. “Compartment No. 6” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Finland, dir. Juho Kuosmanen

Runners Up:

6. “Lamb” (A24) — Iceland, dir. Valdimar Jóhannsson
7. “Leave No Traces” (TBD) — Poland, dir. Jan P. Matuszyński
8. “Titane” (Neon) — France, dir. Julia Ducournau
9. “I’m Your Man” (Bleecker Street) — Germany, dir. Maria Schrader
10.  “Escape from Mogadishu” (Well Go USA) — South Korea, dir. Seung-wan Ryoo

Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros); Greig Fraser
  2. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix); Ari Wegner
  3. “Belfast” (Focus Features); Haris Zambarloukos
  4. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple); Bruno Delbonnel
  5. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures); Dan Laustsen

Runners Up:

6. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios); Janusz Kaminski
7. “C’mon C’mon” (A24); Robbie Ryan
8. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM); Michael Bauman and Paul Thomas Anderson
9. “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM); Seamus McGarvey
10. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix); Alice Brooks

Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Spencer” (Neon); Jacqueline Durran
  2. “House of Gucci” (United Artists/MGM); Janty Yates
  3. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures); Luis Sequeira
  4. “Belfast” (Focus Features); Charlotte Walter
  5. “Dune” (Warner Bros); Jacqueline West, Bob Morgan

Runners Up:

6. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24); Mary Zophres
7. “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM); Massimo Cantini Parrini
8. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM); Mark Bridges
9. “Last Night in Soho” (Focus Features); Odile Dicks-Mireaux
10. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios); Paul Tazewell

Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros); Joe Walker
  2. “Belfast” (Focus Features); Úna Ní Dhonghaíle
  3. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix); Peter Sciberras
  4. “King Richard” (Warner Bros); Pamela Martin
  5. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix); Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum

Runners Up:

6. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures); Cam McLauchlin
7. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple); Lucian Johnston
8. “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix); Hank Corwin
9. “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics); Teresa Font
10. “C’mon C’mon” (A24); Jennifer Vecchiarello

 

Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “House of Gucci” (United Artists/MGM)
  2. “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
  3. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  4. “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  5. “Spencer” (Neon)

Runners Up:

6. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM)
7. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
8. “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
9. “Last Night in Soho” (Focus Features)
10. “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures)

Music – Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Jonny Greenwood, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  2. Hans Zimmer, “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  3. Carter Burwell, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
  4. Nicholas Britell, “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
  5. Kris Bowers, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)

Runners Up:

6. Jonny Greenwood, “Spencer” (Neon)
7. Jonny Greenwood, “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM)
8. Alexandre Desplat, “Nightmare Alley”
9. Alberto Iglesias, “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
10. Alexandre Desplat, “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures)

Music – Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Down to Joy” from “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  2. “Guns Go Bang” from “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix)
  3. “No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die” (MGM)
  4. “Be Alive” from “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  5. “Every Letter” from “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM)

Runners Up:

6. “Beyond the Shore” from “CODA” (Apple)
7. “So May We Start” from “Annette” (Amazon Studios)
8. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from “Respect” (MGM)
9. “The Anonymous Ones” from “Dear Evan Hansen” (Universal Pictures)
10. “Columbia, Mi Encanto” from “Encanto” (Walt Disney Animation)

Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  2. “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  3. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
  4. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  5. “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM)

Runners Up:

6. “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures)
7. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM)
8. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
9. “House of Gucci” (United Artists/MGM)
10. “Last Night in Soho” (Searchlight Pictures)

Sound

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  2. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  3. “The Matrix: Resurrections” (Warner Bros)
  4. “Eternals” (Marvel)
  5. “Belfast” (Focus Features)

Runners Up:

6. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix)
7. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
8. “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM)
9. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
10. “The Last Duel” (20th Century Studios)

Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  2. “Eternals” (Marvel)
  3. “The Matrix: Resurrections” (Warner Bros)
  4. “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (Marvel)
  5. “Godzilla vs. Kong” (Warner Bros)

Runners Up:

6. “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (Marvel)
7. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
8. “A Quiet Place II” (Paramount Pictures
9. “The Tomorrow War” (Amazon Studios)
10. “The Suicide Squad” (Warner Bros)

Best Animated Short Film

Coming soon!

Documentary Short Subject

Coming soon!

Short Film – Live Action

Coming soon!

The 94th Academy Awards will be held Sunday, March 26, 2022.

Written by
Karen Peterson is the Awards Editor for We Live Entertainment. She previously worked as the Assistant Editor at Awards Circuit, now owned by Variety. Her work can also be found at Citizen Dame and at the Watch and Talk podcast. Her non-awards season hobbies include Angels baseball, taking pictures of other peoples' pets, and tweeting about The Bachelor franchise.

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