Oscars 2022: Oscar Predictions as of 10/18 With a First Look at International Feature

Now that the year’s Oscar contenders are making their way out in the world, we see the inevitable shift in enthusiasm for certain presumed leaders. Where months ago prognosticators envisioned a big year for Ridley Scott and House of Gucci, for example, now it seems everyone is talking about Kenneth Branagh’s crowd-pleasing Belfast. Where Wes Anderson once seemed to be headed back to the Dolby with The French Dispatch, that film is all but forgotten as audiences clamor for something new and different.

With just a little over two months to go in the awards year, it will be interesting to watch where studios focus the most energy on their competing properties. Will Warner Bros. go all-in on Dune, or will they give King Richard a share of the attention? How will Neon manage four International Feature selections, and is Disney going to make an impact in the Animated Feature race with so many new and unique offerings to draw away the spotlight? These early months are the best part of Oscar season. Everything is still possible and anything can happen if you only dare to imagine it.

With all that in mind, here are our predictions for the 94th Academy Awards in (almost) all categories for the Week of October 18, 2021:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  2. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple Original Films)
  3. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  4. “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  5. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  6. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
  7. “C’mon C’mon” (A24)
  8. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix)
  9. “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
  10. “Flee” (Neon)

Runners Up:

11. “House of Gucci” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
12. “CODA” (Apple)
13. “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
14. “Spencer” (Neon)
15. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
16. “Cyrano” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
17. “A Hero” (Amazon Studios)
18. “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
19. “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures)
20. “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  2. Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  3. Joel Coen, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
  4. Denis Villeneuve, “Dune” (Warner Bros.)
  5. Reinaldo Marcus Green, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)

Runners Up:

6. Pablo Larrain, “Spencer” (Neon)
7. Pedro Almodóvar, “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
9. Lin-Manuel Miranda, “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix)
10. Mike Mills, “C’mon C’mon” (A24)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  2. Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
  3. Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  4. Peter Dinklage, “Cyrano” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
  5. Nicolas Cage, “Pig” (Neon)

Runners Up:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, “C’mon C’mon” (A24)
7. Clifton Collins, Jr., “Jockey” (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
9. Andrew Garfield, “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix)
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)

Best Actress

  1. Kristen Stewart, “Spencer” (Neon)
  2. Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
  3. Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
  4. Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  5. Frances McDormand, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)

Runners Up:

6. Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
7. Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
9. Emilia Jones, “CODA” (Apple)
10. Jennifer Hudson, “Respect” (Netflix)

 

TENDER BAR

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Ben Affleck, “The Tender Bar” (Amazon Studios)
  2. Jamie Dornan, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  3. Ciaran Hinds, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  4. Bradley Cooper, “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists Releasing/MGM)
  5. Jason Isaacs, “Mass” (Bleecker Street)

Runners Up:

6. Corey Hawkins, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
7. Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
8. J.K. Simmons, “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
9. Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
10. Jeffrey Wright, “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures)

 

(L-R) Jamie Dornan and Caitriona Balfe in BELFAST — Courtesy of Focus Features

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Caitriona Balfe, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  2. Ann Dowd, “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
  3. Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  4. Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  5. Judi Dench, “Belfast” (Focus Features)

Runners Up:

6. Martha Plimpton, “Mass” (Bleecker Street)
7. Marlee Matlin, “CODA” (Apple)
8. Dakota Johnson, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix)
9. Ruth Negga, “Passing” (Netflix)
10. Regina King, “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix)

Joaquin Phoenix, Woody Norman (L-R) Photo by: Tobin Yellan

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “C’mon C’mon” (A24); Mike Mills
  2. “Belfast” (Focus Features); Kenneth Branagh
  3. “Licorice Pizza” (UA Releasing/MGM); Paul Thomas Anderson
  4. “King Richard” (Warner Bros); Zach Baylin
  5. “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix); Jeymes Samuel, Boaz Yakin

Runners Up:

6. “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix); Adam McKay, David Sirota
7. “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon); Aaron Sorkin
8. “Spencer” (Neon); Steven Knight
9. “Bergman Island” (IFC Films); Mia Hansen-Løve
10. “A Hero” (Amazon Studios); Asghar Farhadi

THE POWER OF THE DOG: BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH as PHIL BURBANK in THE POWER OF THE DOG. Cr. KIRSTY GRIFFIN/COURTESY OF NETFLIX

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix); Jane Campion
  2. “The Tender Bar” (Amazon Studios); William Monahan
  3. “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix); Maggie Gyllenhaal
  4. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple); Joel Coen
  5. “Passing” (Netflix); Rebecca Hall

Runners Up:

6. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures); Guillermo del Toro, Kim Morgan
7. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix); Steven Levenson
8. “The Green Knight” (A24); David Lowery
9. “CODA” (Apple); Sian Heder
10. “House of Gucci” (United Artists/MGM); Becky Johnston, Roberto Bentivegna

Image from FLEE — Courtesy of Neon

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Flee” (Neon)
  2. “The Mitchells vs. The Machines” (Netflix)
  3. “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures)
  4. “Belle” (GKIDS)
  5. “The Summit of the Gods” (Netflix)

Runners Up:

6. “Ron’s Gone Wrong” (20th Century Studios)
7. “Luca” (Disney/Pixar)
8. “Raya and the Last Dragon” (Walt Disney Pictures)
9. “Vivo” (Netflix)
10. “Cryptozoo” (Magnolia Pictures)

Image from THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD — Courtesy of Neon

Best International Feature Film

Be sure to check out the latest submissions from each country and territory here.

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “The Worst Person in the World” (Neon) — Norway, dir. Joaquim Trier
  2. “A Hero” (Amazon Studios) — Iran, dir. Asghar Farhadi
  3. “Flee” (Neon/Participant) — Denmark, dir. Jonas Poher Rasmussen
  4. “Memoria” (Neon) — Columbia, dir. Apichatpong Weerasethakul
  5. “Lamb” (A24) — Iceland, dir. Valdimar Jóhannsson

Runners Up:

6. “Compartment No. 6” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Finland, dir. Juho Kuosmanen
7. “Leave No Traces” (TBD) — Poland, dir. Jan P. Matuszyński
8. “Titane” (Neon) — France, dir. Julia Ducournau
9. “I’m Your Man” (Bleecker Street) — Germany, dir. Maria Schrader
10.  “Escape from Mogadishu” (Well Go USA) — South Korea, dir. Seung-wan Ryoo

Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros); Greig Fraser
  2. “Belfast” (Focus Features); Haris Zambarloukos
  3. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple); Bruno Delbonnel
  4. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix); Ari Wegner
  5. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios); Janusz Kaminski

Runners Up:

6. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures); Dan Laustsen
7. “C’mon C’mon” (A24); Robbie Ryan
8. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM); Michael Bauman and Paul Thomas Anderson
9. “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM); Seamus McGarvey
10. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix); Alice Brooks

Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Spencer” (Neon); Jacqueline Durran
  2. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24); Mary Zophres)
  3. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures); Luis Sequeira
  4. “Belfast” (Focus Features); Charlotte Walter
  5. “Dune” (Warner Bros); Jacqueline West

Runners Up:

6. “House of Gucci” (United Artists/MGM); Janty Yates
7. “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM); Massimo Cantini Parrini
8. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM); Mark Bridges
9. “Last Night in Soho” (Focus Features); Odile Dicks-Mireaux
10. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios); Paul Tazewell

Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros); Joe Walker
  2. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix); Peter Sciberras
  3. “Belfast” (Focus Features); Úna Ní Dhonghaíle
  4. “King Richard” (Warner Bros); Pamela Martin
  5. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix); Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum

Runners Up:

6. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures); Cam McLauchlin
7. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple); Lucian Johnston
8. “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix); Hank Corwin
9. “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics); Teresa Font
10. “C’mon C’mon” (A24); Jennifer Vecchiarello

Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
  2. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  3. “Spencer” (Neon)
  4. “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
  5. “King Richard” (Warner Bros)

Runners Up:

6. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM)
7. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
8. “House of Gucci” (United Artists/MGM)
9. “Last Night in Soho” (Focus Features)
10. “Respect” (United Artists/MGM)

Music – Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

  1. Jonny Greenwood, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  2. Hans Zimmer, “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  3. Carter Burwell, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
  4. Nicholas Britell, “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
  5. Kris Bowers, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)

Runners Up:

6. Jonny Greenwood, “Spencer” (Neon)
7. Jonny Greenwood, “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM)
8. Alexandre Desplat, “Nightmare Alley”
9. Alberto Iglesias, “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
10. Alexandre Desplat, “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures)

Music – Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Down to Joy” from “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  2. “No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die” (MGM)
  3. “Be Alive” from “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
  4. “Every Letter” from “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM)
  5. “Somehow You Do” from “Four Good Days” (Vertical Entertainment)

Runners Up:

6. “Beyond the Shore” from “CODA” (Apple)
7. “So May We Start” from “Annette” (Amazon Studios)
8. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from “Respect” (MGM)
9. “The Anonymous Ones” from “Dear Evan Hansen” (Universal Pictures)
10. “Columbia, Mi Encanto” from “Encanto” (Walt Disney Animation)

Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  2. “Belfast” (Focus Features)
  3. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
  4. “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM)
  5. “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures)

Runners Up:

6. “Licorice Pizza” (United Artists/MGM)
7. “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (A24/Apple)
8. “House of Gucci” (United Artists/MGM)
9. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
10. “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)

Sound

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  2. “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  3. “The Matrix: Resurrections” (Warner Bros)
  4. “Eternals” (Marvel)
  5. “Belfast” (Focus Features)

Runners Up:

6. “tick, tick…Boom!” (Netflix)
7. “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
8. “Cyrano” (United Artists/MGM)
9. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
10. “The Last Duel” (20th Century Studios)

Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

  1. “Dune” (Warner Bros)
  2. “Eternals” (Marvel)
  3. “The Matrix: Resurrections” (Warner Bros)
  4. “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (Marvel)
  5. “Godzilla vs. Kong” (Warner Bros)

Runners Up:

6. “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (Marvel)
7. “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
8. “A Quiet Place II” (Paramount Pictures
9. “The Tomorrow War” (Amazon Studios)
10. “The Suicide Squad” (Warner Bros)

Best Documentary Feature Film

Coming soon!

Best Animated Short Film

Coming soon!

Documentary Short Subject

Coming soon!

Short Film – Live Action

Coming soon!

The 94th Academy Awards will be held Sunday, March 26, 2022.

Written by
Karen Peterson is the Awards Editor for We Live Entertainment. She previously worked as the Assistant Editor at Awards Circuit, now owned by Variety. Her work can also be found at Citizen Dame and at the Watch and Talk podcast. Her non-awards season hobbies include Angels baseball, taking pictures of other peoples' pets, and tweeting about The Bachelor franchise.

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