How Successful Will ‘The Bear’ Be This Awards Season?

Every year, when the Emmy nominations are announced, awards season enthusiasts take to Twitter to question the shocking snubs or unexpected nominations for contenders that seemed to crop up at the last minute, and one omission that left a few Emmy followers particularly puzzled was The Bear’s – the universally acclaimed FX/Hulu series centered around the inner workings of a raucous Chicago restaurant. The show has been continually impressing critics for weeks since its June 23rd premiere – earning a rare 100% on Rotten Tomatoes (with a 8.6/10 average rating) and a 86 on Metacritic – and it’s become a staggering word-of-mouth success on social media too, delighting new viewers day by day. So what gives, Television Academy?

The answer is simpler than expected, but one that those who primarily follow other awards races (like the Oscars) might not know: the Emmys eligibility window was actually June 1, 2021 to May 31, 2022, so The Bear won’t be considered for Emmy recognition until nomination voting for the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards opens up next summer. However, despite the initial relief this information might bring, worry soon sets in when one realizes that this means that The Bear will have to stay at the top of voters’ minds until next June. To put it in Oscar terms, expecting The Bear to land major Emmy nominations next year is like expecting a movie released at the end of January to still have a showing at the Academy Awards the following March.

But, with all that being said, I actually don’t think it’s impossible for The Bear to pass this endurance test, and I’ll tell you why: that aforementioned astounding word-of-mouth. No one expected The Bear to be as good as – or as acclaimed as – it is. Not even FX and Hulu, who probably would’ve given the show a more Emmy-friendly release date if they realized what they had on their hands. And yet, against all odds, it triumphed to become what many are now designating as “the surprise hit of the summer” – and that’s a label built to last. Every day, someone new is discovering the show, taking to social media to join in the chorus of commendation for what showrunner Christopher Storer and his cast have created here, and it’s hard to imagine why this hype train would slow down all of a sudden.

And here’s the other feather in The Bear’s cap – the winter awards. Yes, while next year’s Emmys might feel far away right now, the Golden Globe Awards, Critics’ Choice Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards, Producers Guild of America Awards, Directors Guild of America Awards, Writers Guild of America Awards and more are not, as we’re already halfway through 2022, and I’d feel comfortable saying that The Bear is at the top of the list of the most successful drama series in contention this year (if not #1), and no matter what else premieres between now and December, I have a hard time seeing these groups blank the show completely, given how The Bear excels in almost every area of filmmaking.

Let’s just look at its competition so far. The strongest 2022 drama series that The Bear will go up against at these winter awards include (alphabetically): Better Call Saul, The Boys, Euphoria, The Handmaid’s Tale (which has its Season 5 premiere on September 14), Ozark, Severance, Stranger Things, This Is Us, and Yellowstone (which has its Season 5 premiere on November 13). Note that, of course, there’s always the chance another “surprise hit” like The Bear comes out of nowhere, but as of July 2022, this is the list we’re working with (and given how little we know about Game of Thrones spin-off House of the Dragon at the moment, I’ll be omitting that from this discussion, at least for now, and the same goes for The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power, which could be more spectacle than awards play).

Of these nine, I’d first feel inclined to potentially label Euphoria and This Is Us as lower-tier contenders – the former for its early-in-the-year run (January 9-February 27) and failure to connect with the broader industry in its first season (though the Emmys’ embrace of the series may show that support has increased), and the latter for the Emmys’ fierce dismissal of its final season, which could be a shared belief amongst all guilds. However, those other seven are strong competitors and should be taken seriously. Breaking things down by each ceremony, here’s what The Bear’s awards future looks like.

Golden Globe Awards

The Golden Globes only nominate five shows in their Best Television Series – Drama category, but that isn’t even The Bear’s biggest struggle here. No, that would be the fact that, despite having specific “Best Lead Performance in a Television Series” categories for actors and actresses in dramas and comedies, the Golden Globes don’t split their supporting categories up the same way. Instead, these supporting categories are a sort of “catch all” for performances in a series (drama or comedy), miniseries, or television film, and they still only have five nominees, which does not bode well for supporting standouts on The Bear like Ayo Edebiri or Ebon Moss-Bachrach. (Note: some could argue that Ayo Edebiri’s Sydney is the female lead of The Bear, but given that we aren’t aware of her category placement yet, this article operates under the assumption that she’ll be campaigned supporting this time out, singling Jeremy Allen White out as the sole lead of the show and giving Edebiri a stronger chance at netting noms this season and beyond).

All of this is to say that, while The Bear can land a Drama Series nomination, it’s by no means a sure thing as it goes head-to-head with some of the strongest existing series out right now. Taking a look at the Golden Globes history of The Bear’s competitors, we see that:

• • Better Call Saul has never been nominated for Best Television Series – Drama, but Bob Odenkirk has been nominated in Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama four times (most recently for his last season).
  • The Boys has never been nominated for any Golden Globes.
  • Euphoria has never been nominated for any Golden Globes.
  • The Handmaid’s Tale has been nominated for Best Television Series – Drama one time (but not since its first season) and won once, Elisabeth Moss has been nominated for Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama three times (most recently for last season) and won once, Ann Dowd has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or Television Film once (but not since her first season) and won once, and Yvonne Strahovski has been nominated for a Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or Television Film once (but not since her second season).
  • Ozark has been nominated for Best Television Series – Drama once (most recently for its last season), Jason Bateman has been nominated for Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama three times (most recently for his last season), Laura Linney has been nominated for Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama once (most recently for her last season), and Julia Garner has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or Television Film once (most recently for her last season).
  • Severance has never been nominated for any Golden Globes (as it’s in its first season).
  • Stranger Things has been nominated for Best Television Series – Drama twice (but not for its last season), Winona Ryder has been nominated for Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama once (but not since her first season), and David Harbour has been nominated for Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries, or Television Film once (but not since his second season).
  • This Is Us has been nominated for Best Television Series – Drama twice (but not since its second season), Mandy Moore has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or Television Film once (but not since her first season), Chrissy Metz has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries, or Television Film twice (but not since her second season), and Sterling K. Brown has been nominated for Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama once (but not since his second season) and won once.
  • Yellowstone has never been nominated for any Golden Globes.

The one thing in The Bear’s favor with the HFPA? They love anointing a new series, honoring Lovecraft Country, Ratched, Emily in Paris in 2021; The Morning Show and The Politician in 2020; Bodyguard, Homecoming, and Kidding in 2019, and so on and so forth. The Bear may not have some of the big names found in those shows (Sarah Paulson, Jennifer Aniston, Julia Roberts, Jim Carrey, etc.), but it’s still a huge hit by almost every conceivable metric (and already renewed for Season 2), so the HFPA may want to hop on this train before any other awards group. At the moment, I’d probably feel most comfortable predicting the show for a Best Television Series – Drama nomination (alongside The Handmaid’s Tale, Ozark, Severance, and Stranger Things) and a Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama nomination for Jeremy Allen White, while skeptical – but still semi-hopeful – for supporting recognition for Edebiri and Moss-Bachrach.

Critics’ Choice Awards

Thankfully for The Bear, the Critics’ Choice Awards not only have more nominees per category (typically eight for Best Drama Series, and six for each acting category), but they also feature supporting acting categories for every type of series – drama, comedy, and limited. I feel supremely confident in The Bear’s success here then, especially given that critics are the ones who have been leading the positive discourse for the show since day one, and I would expect it to pick up nominations for Best Drama Series, Best Actor in a Drama Series (for White), Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series (for Moss-Bachrach), and Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series (for Edebiri). But, to have the fullest view of the field, here are how its competitors have fared at the Critics Choice Awards:

• • Better Call Saul has been nominated for Best Drama Series three times (most recently for its last season), Bob Odenkirk has been nominated for Best Actor in a Drama Series five times (most recently for his last season) and won twice, Jonathan Banks has been nominated for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series two times (most recently for its last season) and won once, Michael McKean has been nominated for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series two times (but not since his fourth season), and Rhea Seehorn has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series two times (most recently for her last season).
  • The Boys has only ever been nominated for the Critics’ Choice Super Awards in 2021 (where it won Best Superhero Series, Best Actor in a Superhero Series for Antony Starr, Best Actress in a Superhero Series for Aya Cash, and Best Villain in a Series for Antony Starr).
  • Euphoria has only ever been nominated for Best Actress in a Drama Series, for Zendaya in Season 1.
  • The Handmaid’s Tale has been nominated for Best Drama Series once (for its first season) and won once, Elisabeth Moss has been nominated for Best Actress in a Drama Series twice (but not for her last season) and won once, Ann Dowd has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series once (but not since Season 1) and won once, and Yvonne Strahovski has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series once (but not for her last season).
  • Ozark has been nominated for Best Drama Series once (most recently for its last season), Jason Bateman has been nominated for Best Actor in a Drama Series once (most recently for his last season), Laura Linney has been nominated for Best Actress in a Drama Series once (most recently for her last season), Tom Pelphrey has been nominated for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series once (most recently for his last season), Julia Garner has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series twice (most recently for her last season), and Janet McTeer has has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series once (most recently for her last season).
  • Severance has never been nominated for any Critics’ Choice Awards (as it’s in its first season).
  • Stranger Things has been nominated for Best Drama Series twice (but not for its last season), and David Harbour has been nominated for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series once (but not for his last season) and won once.
  • This Is Us has been nominated for Best Drama Series five times (most recently for its last season), Sterling K. Brown has been nominated for Best Actor in a Drama Series four times (most recently for his last season) and won once, Milo Ventimiglia has been nominated for Best Actor in a Drama Series once (but not since his third season), Asante Blackk has been nominated for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series once (but not since his fourth season), Justin Hartley has been nominated for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series four times (most recently for his last season), Chrissy Metz has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series once (but not since her first season), and Susan Kelechi Watson has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series twice (most recently for her last season)
  • Yellowstone has never been nominated for any Critics’ Choice Awards.

Screen Actors Guild Awards

Here’s perhaps where I’m most confident in The Bear’s pre-Emmy awards chances. In almost every review, its ensemble is continually cited as one of the strongest seen in any show on air right now, and I truly feel that it would be a SAG voter’s dream cast – one where, despite Jeremy Allen White leading things so tremendously, every actor gets their time to shine, including not just Edebiri and Moss-Bachrach, but also Liza Colón-Zayas, Lionel Boyce, Abby Elliott, Oliver Platt, and more. When it comes to solo acting plays, White has the edge in his category as “the lead” of the show, and since SAG doesn’t differentiate between leads and supporting players in their TV acting categories, that could put Edebiri and Moss-Bachrach at a disadvantage, depending on who they’re up against. But, to be sure, it’s important to see how their closest competitors have fared in the past, and what actors from those shows have ever gotten in.

• • Better Call Saul has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series twice (most recently for its last season), and Bob Odenkirk has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series four times (most recently for his last season).
  • The Boys has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series once (most recently for its last season).
  • Euphoria has never been nominated for any Screen Actors Guild Awards.
  • The Handmaid’s Tale has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series four times (most recently for its last season), Joseph Fiennes has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series once (but not since his third season), and Elisabeth Moss has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series four times (most recently for her last season).
  • Ozark has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series twice (most recently for its last season), Jason Bateman has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series three times and won twice (most recently for his last season), Laura Linney has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series three times (most recently for her last season), and Julia Garner has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series two times (most recently for her last season).
  • Severance has never been nominated for any Screen Actors Guild Awards (as it’s in its first season).
  • Stranger Things has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series three times (most recently for its last season) and won once, David Harbour has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series twice (most recently for his last season), Millie Bobby Brown has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series two times (but not for her last season), Winona Ryder has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series once (but not for her last two seasons), and the show has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series twice (most recently for its last season).
  • This Is Us has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series twice (but not since its third season) and won twice, and Sterling K. Brown has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series five times (most recently for his last season) and won once.
  • Yellowstone has been nominated for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series once (most recently for its last season).

If I had to bet on how The Bear would factor into next year’s Screen Actors Guild Award nominations this far out, I’d say it’s in the top seven likeliest contenders to nab an Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series nod (alongside Better Call Saul, The Handmaid’s Tale, Ozark, Severance, Stranger Things, and Yellowstone), but I’m not ready to say it’s for sure in yet. However, I do believe Jeremy Allen White can crack Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series (alongside potentially Jason Bateman, David Harbour, Bob Odenkirk, and Adam Scott), and I also see a world where Ayo Edebiri breaks into Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series (along with Julia Garner, Laura Linney, Elisabeth Moss, and Zendaya).

Producers Guild of America Awards

At the Producers Guild of America Awards, only five shows will be nominated for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television, so it’s important to evaluate how The Bear’s competitors have performed before to know which shows the PGA prefers, and which are vulnerable.

• Better Call Saul has been nominated for Best Episodic Drama four times, most recently for its last season.
• The Boys has never been nominated for any Producers Guild of America Awards.
• Euphoria has never been nominated for any Producers Guild of America Awards.
• The Handmaid’s Tale has been nominated for Best Episodic Drama three times – most recently for its last season – and won once.
• Ozark has been nominated for Best Episodic Drama two times, most recently for its last season
• Severance has never been nominated for any Producers Guild of America Awards (as it’s in its first season).
• Stranger Things has been nominated for Best Episodic Drama two times – but not for its last season – and won once.
• This Is Us has been nominated for Best Episodic Drama once, but only for its third season.
• Yellowstone has been nominated for Best Episodic Drama once, most recently for its last season.

My gut tells me that the top seven likeliest nominees for Best Episodic Drama are the same as the top seven for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series at the Screen Actors Guild Awards (The Bear, Better Call Saul, The Handmaid’s Tale, Ozark, Severance, Stranger Things, and Yellowstone). I do feel that, along with Severance, The Bear is a “new show” that has made enough of an impact with critics and with the industry to be taken seriously alongside these prior nominees, but it’s far too soon to say whether it can overtake any yet and for sure secure a spot in the final five.

Directors Guild of America Awards

There are only five spots in the line-up for the Directors Guild of America Award for Outstanding Directing – Drama Series, and a series can take up more than one spot (just this past year, Succession earned all five nominations for itself), which makes it a bit harder for The Bear to break in. With that being said, showrunner Christopher Storer’s direction in Episode 7, “Review,” is already receiving astronomical acclaim and attention for the audacious one-take he pulls off, and that’s a narrative that could certainly take him all the way to the DGA Awards next winter. Before we slot him in for sure though, let’s see what he’s up against based on how his competitors have done previously:

• • Better Call Saul has earned one Directors Guild of America Award nomination, most recently for its last season.
  • The Boys has earned zero Directors Guild of America Award nominations.
  • Euphoria has earned zero Directors Guild of America Award nominations.
  • The Handmaid’s Tale has earned one Directors Guild of America Award nomination – but only for its first season – and won once.
  • Ozark has earned two Directors Guild of America Award nominations, most recently for its last season.
  • Severance has never been nominated for any Directors Guild of America Awards (as it’s in its first season).
  • Stranger Things has earned two Directors Guild of America Award nominations, but none for its last season.
  • This Is Us has earned zero Directors Guild of America Award nominations.
  • Yellowstone has earned zero Directors Guild of America Award nominations.

At this point in time, I could see a line-up comprised of:

• Jason Bateman – Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”)
• Vince Gilligan/Peter Gould – Better Call Saul (“TBD”)
• Shawn Levy – Stranger Things (“Chapter Four: Dear Billy”)
• Ben Stiller – Severance (“The We We Are”)
• Christopher Storer – The Bear (“Review”)

Writers Guild of America Awards

The writing on The Bear is equally as praised as its acting, directing, and editing, and given that the Writers Guild of America Awards also have a category specifically designated for “New Series,” the show feels like a shoo-in there. But can it break into the tighter Drama Series or Episodic Drama fields? It’s got a fighting chance thanks to the sheer quality of its scripts, but its competitors are certainly no slouches either.

• Better Call Saul has earned five Drama Series nominations (most recently for its last season), nine Episodic Drama nominations (most recently for its last season) and two wins, and one New Series nomination.
• The Boys has earned one Drama Series nomination, most recently for its last season.
• Euphoria has earned one Episodic Drama nomination, most recently for a special in between its first and second seasons.
• The Handmaid’s Tale has earned four Drama Series nominations – most recently for its last season – and won once, two Episodic Drama nominations, and one New Series nomination (which it won).
• Ozark has earned one Drama Series nomination (most recently for its last season), two Episodic Drama nominations (most recently for its last season), and one New Series nomination.
• Severance has never been nominated for any Writers Guild of America Awards (as it’s in its first season).
• Stranger Things has earned two Drama Series nominations (but none for its last season) and one New Series nomination.
• This Is Us has earned four Episodic Drama nominations and won once (most recently for its last season), and one New Series nomination.
• Yellowstone has never been nominated for any Writers Guild of America Awards.

As stated above, New Series feels like the easiest category at the WGAs for The Bear to crack (along with fellow new drama series Severance, most likely), while I could also see it break into Drama Series (alongside Better Call Saul, The Handmaid’s Tale, Ozark, and Severance), and I wouldn’t rule out Episodic Drama either, depending on what episode(s) they submit (my recommendation would be the richly written season finale, “Braciole,” which features many moving monologues and tremendous twists that exemplify the show’s phenomenal plotting).

Other Ceremonies and the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards

While these deep dives explore the biggest and most publicized awards ceremonies in the industry, there are numerous other guilds “below-the-line” that could honor The Bear as well (the American Cinema Editors, the Art Directors Guild, the Cinema Audio Society, the Costume Designers Guild, the Set Decorators Society of America, etc.), and noms from all or even just a few of these guilds would further help keep The Bear in Emmy voters’ minds come next summer.

And what is possible for The Bear at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards? Well, first let’s discuss what it’ll be up against. Euphoria, Ozark, Severance, and This Is Us will be out of the picture, while the second halves of Better Call Saul Season 6 and Stranger Things Season 4 will be eligible (but it’s hard to tell if Emmy voters will even bother with recognizing “half” a season, especially after both aired so early), and The Boys Season 3, The Handmaid’s Tale Season 5, and Yellowstone Season 5 will all be recognized as well. As for shows that didn’t factor into the winter awards? Well, Succession Season 4 is expected to premiere in time to be eligible for next year’s Emmys, while Yellowjackets Season 2 plans to begin production in August, meaning we could also see it premiere in Spring 2023. And, HBO’s The Last of Us is tentatively eyeing an “early 2023” release date right now, so it could definitely crash the Outstanding Drama Series category too. (And I have more faith in this spectacle-driven show possessing an equally impactful story than House of the Dragon or The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power).

Obviously, so much can – and will – change between now and summer 2023, but if we want to make a long-range guess at how or where The Bear could fit into an Outstanding Drama Series line-up at the Emmys, I’d wager it could look like this:

• The Bear (Season 1)
• Better Call Saul (Season 6 – Part 2)
• The Boys (Season 3)
• The Handmaid’s Tale (Season 5)
• House of the Dragon (Season 1)
• The Last of Us (Season 1)
• Succession (Season 4)
• Yellowjackets (Season 2)

And when it comes to the acting categories, I do have faith Jeremy Allen White – on the heels of nominations from prior groups and guilds – could land an Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series nomination (alongside Brian Cox, Bob Odenkirk, Jeremy Strong, and perhaps even Pedro Pascal and Antony Starr too), and Ayo Edebiri and Ebon Moss-Bachrach would have strong shots at nabbing supporting nods here, given that those categories have even more spots available than the lead categories – and watch out for Jon Bernthal in Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series.

So much of this article is pure speculation on my part, as it’s almost impossible to be sure of all the shows that will premiere between now and the end of the year – or now and the end of May 2023 – but what isn’t speculation is the fact that The Bear is already one of the most beloved and most-watched shows of 2022, and that buzz isn’t going away any time soon (and if the equally acclaimed The White Lotus can last from July 2021 to July 2022 this past Emmy season, why can’t The Bear next year?). Should the industry do their part and properly recognize it at the winter awards at the end of 2022 and into early 2023, it will continue to build up a strong case for its 2023 Emmys campaign, and from there, the sky’s the limit.