Zoë’s 2022 Emmy Predictions – July 22nd

The end of another week means another update to my predictions for the winners of the 74th Primetime Emmy Awards, and although there have been no sizable shake-ups to the races, there have been several key competitors that have started to rise in the rankings, and in a few weeks, they may be strong enough to effectively topple the current frontrunners. Who might they be? Take a look below.

DRAMA SERIES

Outstanding Drama Series

1. Succession
2. Severance (+1)
3. Squid Game (-1)
4. Better Call Saul (+1)
5. Yellowjackets (+1)
6. Ozark (-2)
7. Euphoria
8. Stranger Things

The Severance love is so real, and Apple TV+ is pulling out all the stops to make a serious play for an Outstanding Drama Series win – or, at the very least, a major win somewhere for the sci-fi series. It’s been my belief for awhile that Severance would be a serious contender in this category but instead win another award as a sign of support for the show and then really dominate in its second season. That’s still where I’m at, but if anything can challenge Succession, I think it’ll be this. Other movement this week? The fall of Ozark – which doesn’t seem to be getting as big a finale bump as initially anticipated – and the rise of Better Call Saul (which is getting a finale bump by continually generating buzz in its final season, the un-eligible second part of which is currently airing) and Yellowjackets (which, like Severance, made a strong impact in its first season, but might have to wait until later seasons for greater awards glory).

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

1. Lee Jung-jae – Squid Game
2. Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
3. Jeremy Strong – Succession
4. Brian Cox – Succession
5. Adam Scott – Severance (+1)
6. Jason Bateman – Ozark (-1)

I’m still sticking with Lee Jung-jae in this line-up, though I will say that my top three are very close, and I can see any of them pulling it off in the end, even if I remain somewhat skeptical about Strong winning his second Emmy against such strong (ha) competition. The only major movement is the rise of Adam Scott – benefitting from the Severance bump overall – and the fall of Jason Bateman – coinciding with Ozark‘s waning buzz.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

1. Zendaya – Euphoria
2. Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets (+1)
3. Laura Linney – Ozark (-1)
4. Jodie Comer – Killing Eve
5. Sandra Oh – Killing Eve
6. Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show

Zendaya is gonna be tough to top in this category – the episode she’s submitted this season (“Stand Still Like the Hummingbird”) is essentially an hour-long Emmy clip, and she’s also just one of the hottest starts on Earth right now – but if anyone can do it, I think it’s actually Yellowjackets‘ Melanie Lynskey, and not Ozark‘s Laura Linney, as once presumed. This is no knock against Linney (if anything, it’s more an observation of her show’s lacking buzz this season), but instead a show of strength for Lynskey, who fits the mold for a “surprise” win at the ceremony – an often under-recognized and under-appreciated working actor who is essential to making her series the success it’s become. And, this may be the one place to throw Yellowjackets a bone (given that it did admittedly overperform, even as Euphoria can say the same).

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

1. Matthew Macfadyen – Succession
2. Kieran Culkin – Succession
3. Oh Young-soo – Squid Game
4. John Turturro – Severance (+1)
5. Christopher Walken – Severance (+1)
6. Nicholas Braun – Succession (+1)
7. Park Hae-soo – Squid Game (+1)
8. Billy Crudup – The Morning Show (-4)

I still think this race is between Macfadyen and Culkin (with Macfadyen having the edge, and Squid Game‘s Oh Young-soo being the likeliest non-Succession challenger), but The Morning Show‘s Billy Crudup takes a tumble this week, as his show dramatically underperformed and aired early in the eligibility period, meaning that his nomination was likely not much more than a “namecheck” for a former winner, rendering him incapable of challenging contenders in stronger shows overall.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

1. Julia Garner – Ozark
2. Sarah Snook – Succession
3. Jung Ho-yeon – Squid Game
4. Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul
5. Christina Ricci – Yellowjackets
6. Sydney Sweeney – Euphoria (+1)
7. Patricia Arquette – Severance (-1)
8. J. Smith-Cameron – Succession

Funnily enough, despite Severance‘s rise elsewhere, I’ve actually dropped Patricia Arquette a spot this week, but that’s more due to the strength of the star who leapt over her – two-time Emmy nominee Sydney Sweeney. There are some who think that Sydney Sweeney’s ability to nab two Emmy nods this year (with her nom for The White Lotus being extremely unexpected) means she’s a threat to win this category, a la Zendaya in Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series for Season 1 of Euphoria. I’m not ready to go that far yet, but I will say that she should be taken very seriously as a contender, and she’s one to watch in the weeks to come.

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

1. Ben Stiller – Severance (“The We We Are”)
2. Hwang Dong-hyuk – Squid Game (“Red Light, Green Light”)
3. Mark Mylod – Succession (“All the Bells Say”)
4. Karyn Kusama – Yellowjackets (“Pilot”) (+1)
5. Jason Bateman – Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”) (-1)
6. Lorene Scafaria – Succession (“Too Much Birthday”)
7. Cathy Yan – Succession (“The Disruption”)

A lot of people have Hwang Dong-hyuk at #1 here (and I’m not dismissing that very real possibility at all) but I still can’t shake the feeling that, even if Severance wins nowhere else, this will be its Season 1 consolation prize – and a way to honor a big star in the form of Ben Stiller at the same time. Praise Kier! (The only other major movement this week is the slight fall for Jason Bateman and the slight rise for Yellowjackets‘ Karyn Kusama, due to her show’s strength across-the-board).

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

1. Jesse Armstrong – Succession (“All the Bells Say”)
2. Dan Erickson – Severance (“The We We Are”)
3. Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson – Yellowjackets (“Pilot”) (+1)
4. Thomas Schnauz – Better Call Saul (“Plan and Execution”) (+1)
5. Chris Mundy – Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”) (-2)
6. Hwang Dong-hyuk – Squid Game (“One Lucky Day”)
7. Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle, and Bart Nickerson – Yellowjackets (“F Sharp”)

Ozark‘s “A Hard Way to Go” falls here – in line with its drops in almost every category, save for Supporting Actress in a Drama Series – and Yellowjackets and Better Call Saul benefit, for a pitch-perfect pilot and a stellar mid-season finale, respectively. This race is still Succession‘s to lose – it will be the easiest award for it to win on the night, in all honesty – but as in Outstanding Drama Series, Severance is nipping on its heels.

COMEDY SERIES

Outstanding Comedy Series

1. Abbott Elementary
2. Ted Lasso
3. Hacks
4. Barry
5. Only Murders in the Building
6. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
7. What We Do in the Shadows
8. Curb Your Enthusiasm

Every day seems to bring more good news for Abbott Elementary – its already greenlit second season has just been revealed to be a full 22-episode sophomore order from ABC – and it’s continually the talk of the town. I still don’t buy that Ted Lasso is going to so easily default to a second Outstanding Comedy Series win here, especially for a season that largely wasn’t seen as quite as good as the first, not to mention the fact that it premiered so long ago. Hacks is a dark horse contender here too, though I think many voters mostly view that as an acting/writing play, and Barry is the same (though swap out writing for directing, as you’ll see below). Only Murders in the Building – which is airing its acclaimed second season right now – rounds out our top five, but the competition is too fierce for it to make a play at the top prize.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

1. Bill Hader – Barry
2. Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso
3. Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building
4. Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building
5. Donald Glover – Atlanta
6. Nicholas Hoult – The Great

Another category with no shake-ups between last week and this week, but mostly because Bill Hader’s work in Season 3 of Barry just stands head-and-shoulders above all other performances from lead actors in comedies this season (if you can still even call Barry a “comedy”), and the two-time Emmy winner will likely be welcomed back warmly after three years off with a “comeback” win. Sudeikis is no slouch – he got a lot of meaty dramatic material on this season of Ted Lasso too – but Hader feels so far and ahead of everyone at the moment.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

1. Jean Smart – Hacks
2. Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
3. Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
4. Issa Rae – Insecure (+1)
5. Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant (-1)
6. Elle Fanning – The Great

No one is touching Queen Jean Smart here, but of the three contenders from shows that aren’t nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series, I’ve elevated Issa Rae to fourth place, giving her a bit of a “finale bump” for the final (and fantastically acclaimed) season of Insecure. It also helps that she’s out and about right now promoting her new HBO Max series Rap Sh!t, keeping her in the public eye the month before final voting opens.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

1. Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso (+2)
2. Henry Winkler – Barry (-1)
3. Anthony Carrigan – Barry (-1)
4. Nick Mohammed – Ted Lasso
5. Toheeb Jimoh – Ted Lasso
6. Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
7. Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary
8. Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live

Ted Lasso performed so well with Emmy nominations that I will admit it probably has to win something somewhere, and I find it easiest to award the show here – especially given that many feel Brett Goldstein is quickly becoming the standout performer of the show as a whole (an L.A. Times profile written last year towards the end of Season 2 even stated he was the “only one keeping [the season] afloat”). Winkler and Carrigan are no pushovers – particularly the former, for the fateful part he plays in the finale of Barry Season 3 (as much as many would like Carrigan to finally get his taste of Emmy glory) – but Goldstein is still mightily beloved by both the Television Academy and the mainstream, and his star was elevated a bit this month with a cameo in a certain Marvel movie that just released…

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

1. Janelle James – Abbott Elementary
2. Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso
3. Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary (+1)
4. Hannah Einbinder – Hacks (-1)
5. Sarah Niles – Ted Lasso
6. Juno Temple – Ted Lasso
7. Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
8. Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live

I’m still on the Janelle James train – you’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone who watches Abbott Elementary and doesn’t walk away raving about the talents of the stand-up comedian – but I’ve bumped her co-star and co-nominee Sheryl Lee Ralph up a spot this week as well, dropping Hacks‘ Hannah Einbinder in the process (who, while stellar on that show, can’t help but take a backseat to the supreme Jean Smart from time-to-time). Ralph is an incredible campaigner and another star standout on Abbott, and even if she doesn’t win this year, I feel safe saying that her Barbara will only continue to get more hilarious material in the seasons to come. However, with Ralph’s rise, we also risk vote-splitting occurring between her and James, which could allow Ted Lasso‘s Hannah Waddingham to slide to a second win in this category.

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

1. Bill Hader – Barry (“710N”)
2. Cherien Dabis – Only Murders in the Building (“The Boy from 6B”) (+1)
3. Lucia Aniello – Hacks (“There Will Be Blood”) (-1)
4. MJ Delaney – Ted Lasso (“No Weddings and a Funeral”)
5. Hiro Murai – Atlanta (“New Jazz”)
6. Jamie Babbit – Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”)
7. Mary Lou Belli – The Ms. Pat Show (“Baby Daddy Groundhog Day”)

As I said last week, I don’t think there’s any way Bill Hader loses this award for his daring direction in Barry‘s “710N,” which has a scope and scale that no other contender in this category can compete with. However, I have moved down last year’s winner – Hacks‘ Lucia Aniello – to bump up Cherien Dabis for her work in Only Murders in the Building‘s “The Boy from 6B.” It’s an audacious directorial achievement to film an episode almost entirely from a deaf character’s point-of-view, and even though I don’t think Only Murders in a Building will walk away with any Emmys this year, this is the category where it will come closest, in my opinion.

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

1. Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary (“Pilot”)
2. Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky – Hacks (“The One, the Only”)
3. Jane Becker – Ted Lasso (“No Weddings and a Funeral”)
4. Steve Martin and John Hoffman – Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”)
5. Alec Berg and Bill Hader – Barry (“starting now”)
6. Duffy Boudreau – Barry (“710N”)
7. Stefani Robinson – What We Do in the Shadows (“The Wellness Center”)
8. Sarah Naftalis – What We Do in the Shadows (“The Casino”)

Once again, a race with no movement. I fully concede that the Hacks writing team can repeat their victory from last year here with that superbly written Season 2 finale, “The One, the Only,” but I think Emmy voters are going to be swayed by the opportunity to honor Quinta Brunson specifically for what she’s created with Abbott Elementary, beginning with that tremendous pilot.

LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

1. The White Lotus
2. Dopesick
3. The Dropout
4. Pam and Tommy
5. Inventing Anna

Limited or Anthology Series is still The White Lotus‘ to lose. It seems that some are finally catching up with the show following its impressive Emmy nom haul, and more raves are popping up on social media by the day, showing that it hasn’t lost any of its allure (and bite) in the past year, and given how it’s performed already, it’s likely that Emmy voters feel the same. Dopesick is the clear number two here, since it also had a strong showing in the acting, directing, and writing categories, but The White Lotus remains ahead.

Outstanding Television Movie

1. The Survivor
2. Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers
3. Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas (+1)
4. Ray Donovan: The Movie (-1)
5. Reno 911!: The Hunt for QAnon

The Survivor holds onto its #1 spot in the Outstanding Television Movie category on account of being the biggest “prestige” title in the line-up (and almost the only prestige title in the line-up), but I do give Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas a bump this week for having a bit more of a “fun” factor than the only moderately received Ray Donovan: The Movie (with this “fun” factor also making Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers the chief competitor for The Survivor). Plus, what won last year? Another Christmas special – Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Michael Keaton – Dopesick
2. Sebastian Stan – Pam and Tommy
3. Andrew Garfield – Under the Banner of Heaven
4. Colin Firth – The Staircase
5. Oscar Isaac – Scenes from a Marriage
6. Himesh Patel – Station Eleven

I’m kinda thinking Keaton has this one in the bag, but Pam and Tommy‘s overperformance overall does make me wonder if Sebastian Stan can stage an upset here (or if his co-star, Lily James, is edging towards a win in the next category). Regardless, it really is those two and everyone else, as, with Under the Banner of Heaven and The Staircase failing to break into the Limited or Anthology Series category, Andrew Garfield and Colin Firth are simply “happy to be here.”

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout
2. Lily James – Pam and Tommy
3. Julia Garner – Inventing Anna (+1)
4. Margaret Qualley – Maid (-1)
5. Toni Collette – The Staircase
6. Sarah Paulson – Impeachment: American Crime Story

Amanda Seyfried remains at #1 here – with Lily James right behind her – but I had to put Inventing Anna‘s Julia Garner over Maid‘s Margaret Qualley this week, as there’s no way Inventing Anna could’ve performed how it did – with Garner being beloved as she is (a two-time nominee this year!) – and have Garner not at least place in the top three in this category when all is said and done. Margaret Qualley should be in winning contention for her performance in Maid in this pundit’s opinion, but the show’s stumble across-the-board really took the wind out of her sails, sadly.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Murray Bartlett – The White Lotus
2. Jake Lacy – The White Lotus
3. Seth Rogen – Pam and Tommy
4. Peter Sarsgaard – Dopesick
5. Michael Stuhlbarg – Dopesick
6. Steve Zahn – The White Lotus
7. Will Poulter – Dopesick

No movement here this week – it’s really Murray Bartlett’s race to lose – but I do keep coming back to the fact that Seth Rogen is the only nominee here not in The White Lotus or Dopesick, and wondering if that means anything (in fact, he’s the only Supporting Actor or Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie nominee not in The White Lotus or Dopesick). I still think he’s the third likeliest winner for Pam and Tommy – who is the show named after again? – but this is something interesting to take note of.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus
2. Kaitlyn Dever – Dopesick
3. Alexandra Daddario – The White Lotus
4. Connie Britton – The White Lotus
5. Natasha Rothwell – The White Lotus
6. Mare Winningham – Dopesick
7. Sydney Sweeney – The White Lotus

This should still be Jennifer Coolidge’s “Emmy moment,” but with every passing day, I worry more and more that the overabundance of The White Lotus nominees could spread votes too thin and hurt her chances, allowing Kaitlyn Dever – a huge star-on-the-rise with considerable support of her own – to swoop in and take it. I’ll stick with Coolidge for now, but hey, even if she loses, there’s still Season 2.

Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Mike White – The White Lotus
2. Danny Strong – Dopesick (“The People vs. Purdue Pharma”)
3. Hiro Murai – Station Eleven (“Wheel of Fire”)
4. John Wells – Maid (“Sky Blue”)
5. Francesca Gregorini – The Dropout (“Iron Sisters”)
6. Michael Showalter – The Dropout (“Green Juice”)

I think Mike White is guaranteed another Emmy (see below), so I could see voters choose to spread the love and recognize Danny Strong here for his work in the Dopesick finale, but given how well The White Lotus performed, I have faith White can take this one too. Still, this is the prospective White Lotus win I’m shakiest on.

Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Mike White – The White Lotus
2. Danny Strong – Dopesick (“The People vs. Purdue Pharma”)
3. Elizabeth Meriwether – The Dropout (“I’m in a Hurry”)
4. Molly Smith Metzler – Maid (“Snaps”)
5. Patrick Somerville – Station Eleven (“Unbroken Circle”)
6. Sarah Burgess – Impeachment: American Crime Story (“Man Handled”)

Mike White is winning. Wrap it up. The White Lotus is a writing achievement first-and-foremost, and sharp and smart social satire like this always fares well in writing categories at awards ceremonies. Thanks to all other contenders for playing, but I think we can call this one early.