Zoë’s 2022 Emmy Predictions – July 29th

While you won’t see any significant shake-ups In any of the Drama, Comedy, or Limited Series races this week (save for a slight shuffle in Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series, to account for a boost of love for Better Call Saul as it currently airs its final season), I have added Variety Series/Specials to my predictions for the first time, while additionally assessing their directing and writing races as well. In the weeks that come, look for us to also explore the Guest Acting races, along with Animated and Competition/Reality programs.

DRAMA SERIES

Outstanding Drama Series

1. Succession
2. Severance
3. Squid Game
4. Better Call Saul
5. Yellowjackets
6. Ozark
7. Euphoria
8. Stranger Things

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

1. Lee Jung-jae – Squid Game
2. Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
3. Jeremy Strong – Succession
4. Brian Cox – Succession
5. Adam Scott – Severance
6. Jason Bateman – Ozark

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

1. Zendaya – Euphoria
2. Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets
3. Laura Linney – Ozark
4. Jodie Comer – Killing Eve
5. Sandra Oh – Killing Eve
6. Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

1. Matthew Macfadyen – Succession
2. Kieran Culkin – Succession
3. Oh Young-soo – Squid Game
4. John Turturro – Severance
5. Christopher Walken – Severance
6. Nicholas Braun – Succession
7. Park Hae-soo – Squid Game
8. Billy Crudup – The Morning Show

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

1. Julia Garner – Ozark
2. Sarah Snook – Succession
3. Jung Ho-yeon – Squid Game
4. Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul
5. Christina Ricci – Yellowjackets
6. Sydney Sweeney – Euphoria
7. Patricia Arquette – Severance
8. J. Smith-Cameron – Succession

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

1. Ben Stiller – Severance (“The We We Are”)
2. Hwang Dong-hyuk – Squid Game (“Red Light, Green Light”)
3. Mark Mylod – Succession (“All the Bells Say”)
4. Karyn Kusama – Yellowjackets (“Pilot”)
5. Jason Bateman – Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”)
6. Lorene Scafaria – Succession (“Too Much Birthday”)
7. Cathy Yan – Succession (“The Disruption”)

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

1. Jesse Armstrong – Succession (“All the Bells Say”)
2. Dan Erickson – Severance (“The We We Are”)
3. Thomas Schnauz – Better Call Saul (“Plan and Execution”) (+1)
4. Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson – Yellowjackets (“Pilot”) (-1)
5. Chris Mundy – Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”)
6. Hwang Dong-hyuk – Squid Game (“One Lucky Day”)
7. Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle, and Bart Nickerson – Yellowjackets (“F Sharp”)

COMEDY SERIES

Outstanding Comedy Series

1. Abbott Elementary
2. Ted Lasso
3. Hacks
4. Barry
5. Only Murders in the Building
6. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
7. What We Do in the Shadows
8. Curb Your Enthusiasm

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

1. Bill Hader – Barry
2. Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso
3. Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building
4. Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building
5. Donald Glover – Atlanta
6. Nicholas Hoult – The Great

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

1. Jean Smart – Hacks
2. Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
3. Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
4. Issa Rae – Insecure
5. Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant
6. Elle Fanning – The Great

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

1. Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso
2. Henry Winkler – Barry
3. Anthony Carrigan – Barry
4. Nick Mohammed – Ted Lasso
5. Toheeb Jimoh – Ted Lasso
6. Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
7. Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary
8. Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

1. Janelle James – Abbott Elementary
2. Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso
3. Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary
4. Hannah Einbinder – Hacks
5. Sarah Niles – Ted Lasso
6. Juno Temple – Ted Lasso
7. Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
8. Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

1. Bill Hader – Barry (“710N”)
2. Cherien Dabis – Only Murders in the Building (“The Boy from 6B”)
3. Lucia Aniello – Hacks (“There Will Be Blood”)
4. MJ Delaney – Ted Lasso (“No Weddings and a Funeral”)
5. Hiro Murai – Atlanta (“New Jazz”)
6. Jamie Babbit – Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”)
7. Mary Lou Belli – The Ms. Pat Show (“Baby Daddy Groundhog Day”)

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

1. Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary (“Pilot”)
2. Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky – Hacks (“The One, the Only”)
3. Jane Becker – Ted Lasso (“No Weddings and a Funeral”)
4. Steve Martin and John Hoffman – Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”)
5. Alec Berg and Bill Hader – Barry (“starting now”)
6. Duffy Boudreau – Barry (“710N”)
7. Stefani Robinson – What We Do in the Shadows (“The Wellness Center”)
8. Sarah Naftalis – What We Do in the Shadows (“The Casino”)

LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

1. The White Lotus
2. Dopesick
3. The Dropout
4. Pam and Tommy
5. Inventing Anna

Outstanding Television Movie

1. The Survivor
2. Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers
3. Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas
4. Ray Donovan: The Movie
5. Reno 911!: The Hunt for QAnon

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Michael Keaton – Dopesick
2. Sebastian Stan – Pam and Tommy
3. Andrew Garfield – Under the Banner of Heaven
4. Colin Firth – The Staircase
5. Oscar Isaac – Scenes from a Marriage
6. Himesh Patel – Station Eleven

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout
2. Lily James – Pam and Tommy
3. Julia Garner – Inventing Anna
4. Margaret Qualley – Maid
5. Toni Collette – The Staircase
6. Sarah Paulson – Impeachment: American Crime Story

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Murray Bartlett – The White Lotus
2. Jake Lacy – The White Lotus
3. Seth Rogen – Pam and Tommy
4. Peter Sarsgaard – Dopesick
5. Michael Stuhlbarg – Dopesick
6. Steve Zahn – The White Lotus
7. Will Poulter – Dopesick

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus
2. Kaitlyn Dever – Dopesick
3. Alexandra Daddario – The White Lotus
4. Connie Britton – The White Lotus
5. Natasha Rothwell – The White Lotus
6. Mare Winningham – Dopesick
7. Sydney Sweeney – The White Lotus

Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Mike White – The White Lotus
2. Danny Strong – Dopesick (“The People vs. Purdue Pharma”)
3. Hiro Murai – Station Eleven (“Wheel of Fire”)
4. John Wells – Maid (“Sky Blue”)
5. Francesca Gregorini – The Dropout (“Iron Sisters”)
6. Michael Showalter – The Dropout (“Green Juice”)

Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Mike White – The White Lotus
2. Danny Strong – Dopesick (“The People vs. Purdue Pharma”)
3. Elizabeth Meriwether – The Dropout (“I’m in a Hurry”)
4. Molly Smith Metzler – Maid (“Snaps”)
5. Patrick Somerville – Station Eleven (“Unbroken Circle”)
6. Sarah Burgess – Impeachment: American Crime Story (“Man Handled”)

VARIETY SERIES/SPECIAL

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

1. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
2. Late Show with Stephen Colbert
3. The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
4. Jimmy KimmeI Live
5. Late Night with Seth Meyers

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver has won this award every year since 2016, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. It’s continually one of the most watched and buzzed about shows in this line-up, and Oliver hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down yet. If anyone were to upset, it could be Stephen Colbert, who himself has won twice in the Outstanding Variety Series categories, but we wouldn’t bet on it. (But yay for Seth Meyers for finally getting on the board!)

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

1. Saturday Night Live
2. A Black Lady Sketch Show

Much like Last Week Tonight with John Oliver in the Outstanding Variety Talk Series category, Saturday Night Live has dominated Outstanding Variety Sketch Series since 2017, and it’s earned a whopping 27 Outstanding Variety Series nominations throughout its entire run. As much as we’d love to see A Black Lady Sketch Show get its chance to stand in the spotlight, this seems to be Saturday Night Live‘s for the taking.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series

1. Don Roy King and Liz Patrick – Saturday Night Live (“Host: Billie Eilish”)
2. Paul Pennolino and Christopher Werner – Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (“Union Busting”)
3. Jim Hoskinson – The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (“Artistic Musical Performance by Chance the Rapper; Monologue: Ukraine & Russian War, January 6 Committee Evidence on Trump & Donald Jr.; Guest Beanie Feldstein”)
4. Alexander J. Vietmeier – Late Night with Seth Meyers (“Episode 1252”)
5. Bridger Stokes – A Black Lady Sketch Show (“Save my Edges, I’m a Donor!”)

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series can sometimes be a tough category to predict, given that directing for a variety series isn’t always as outwardly “obvious” as it is in narrative programs, but we’ll give the edge to Saturday Night Live for “Host: Billie Eilish,” since it was the most dynamic production of this bunch. (Plus, Saturday Night Live has won this category since 2017, after a five year win streak from 2010 to 2014 as well).

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series

1. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
2. Late Show with Stephen Colbert
3. The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
4. Saturday Night Live
5. A Black Lady Sketch Show

Another Emmy for John Oliver! Just as he’s dominated Outstanding Variety Talk Series, Oliver and his writing team have won Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series since 2016, and I see little reason to assume that any of his competitors will upset him this time around, especially as he likely takes home yet another Outstanding Variety Talk Series trophy, too.

Outstanding Variety Special (Live)

1. Live in Front of a Studio Audience: The Facts of Life and Diff’rent Strokes
2. The Tony Awards Present: Broadway’s Back!
3. The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar, and 50 Cent
4. The 64th Annual Grammy Awards
5. The Oscars

These Live in Front of a Studio Audience television specials have won Outstanding Variety Special (Live) twice before (in 2019 for Live in Front of a Studio Audience: Norman Lear’s All in the Family and The Jeffersons and in 2020 for Live in Front of a Studio Audience: All in the Family and Good Times), so I’ll give the edge to The Facts of Life and Diff’rent Strokes for now. However, I could just as easily see the equally acclaimed The Tony Awards Present: Broadway’s Back! or The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show take this, but I’m completely counting out this year’s chaotic Oscar telecast.

Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

1. Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special
2. Dave Chappelle: The Closer
3. Adele One Night Only
4. One Last Time: An Evening with Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga
5. Harry Potter 20th Anniversary: Return to Hogwarts

I’m predicting that Emmy voters will cast their ballots for Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special in the Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) category as a way to honor the late comedian one last time, but I’m keeping my eye on Dave Chappelle: The Closer, given that that comedian’s controversies didn’t prevent him from taking home the Emmy in 2020 for his special Sticks & Stones. Adele One Night Only could be another enticing option for voters if they sidestep the comedy specials entirely, though.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special

1. Bo Burnham – Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel
2. Hamish Hamilton – The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar, and 50 Cent
3. Norm Macdonald and Jeff Tomsic – Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special
4. Stan Lathan – Dave Chappelle: The Closer
5. Paul Dugdale – Adele One Night Only

Bo Burnham just won this catgory last year for his Netflix special Inside, and we expect him to pick up a second Emmy in a row for his work directing Jerrod Carmichael’s Rothaniel, with his contributions being just as praised as the title comedian’s tender writing. Hamish Hamilton is no slouch for helming this year’s Pepsi Super Bowl Halftime Show though, while love for Norm Macdonald could net him another win here, but we’re sticking with Burnham for now.

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special

1. Jerrod Carmichael – Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel
2. Norm Macdonald – Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special
3. Nicole Byer – Nicole Byer: BBW
4. Ali Wong – Ali Wong: Don Wong
5. Ian Berger, Devin Delliquanti, Jennifer Flanz, Jordan Klepper, Zhubin Parang, and Scott Sherman – Jordan Klepper Fingers the Globe

Despite Rothaniel‘s absurd snub in the Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) category, I believe Emmy voters will “atone” for its omission elsewhere by honoring Jerrod Carmichael here (and hey, he’ll be succeeding Rothaniel‘s director Bo Burnham, who won this award last year). Once again, Norm Macdonald is one to watch out for, given that this year is their last chance to vote for him anywhere, but we think that the writing in the riveting Rothaniel speaks for itself, and it’s a special that really says something about the world we’re living in today, particularly in how it relates to modern LGBTQ+ issues and addresses the intersectionality of race and sexuality.