Zoë’s 2022 Gotham Independent Film Awards Predictions

A little over a month after the nominations were announced, we have now arrived at the morning of the 2022 Gotham Independent Film Awards, which will not only honor the best in independent film and television from this year, but also kick off the 2022-2023 awards season. Alongside awarding titles like TÁR, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Aftersun, the Gotham Film & Media Institute will also recognize actors Adam Sandler and Michelle Williams with the Performer Tribute, the cast of Fire Island with the Ensemble Tribute, director Gina Prince-Bythewood with the Filmmaker Tribute, actor Sidney Poitier with the Icon Tribute (posthumously), executives Jason Cassidy and Peter Kujawski with the Industry Tribute, and entrepreneur Don Katz with the Innovator Tribute. But, without further ado, let’s dive in to our final predictions for the twelve major awards the IFP will hand out tonight, starting with the film side.


Best Feature

Cate Blanchett in TÁR


The Cathedral

Dos Estaciones

Everything Everywhere All at Once


Will Win: TÁR

Could Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

TÁR is the easy favorite in this category, as it received the most nominations overall this year with five, but Everything Everywhere All at Once also has significant heat this year – especially coming off its eight Indie Spirit Awards nominations – so don’t count it out just yet. Another dark horse could be Charlotte Wells’ Aftersun, which earned the second most nominations this year behind TÁR, with four.

Outstanding Lead Performance

Cate Blanchett in TÁR

Cate Blanchett – TÁR

Danielle Deadwyler – Till

Dale Dickey – A Love Song

Colin Farrell – After Yang

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Thandiwe Newton – God’s Country

Aubrey Plaza – Emily the Criminal

Taylor Russell – Bones and All

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: Cate Blanchett – TÁR

Could Win: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

This is a STACKED category, and even though I’m sticking with Cate having the edge for now (both because of TÁR‘s dominance overall and because she has the advantage of being The Frontrunner™ in her acting race at the moment and centering herself in that conversation), I can just as easily see Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s Michelle Yeoh swoop in and take this, as she’s certainly no slouch with critics either. Or is this where Paul Mescal will start demonstrating his strength as an acting contender?

Outstanding Supporting Performance

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Jessie Buckley – Women Talking

Raúl Castillo – The Inspection

Hong Chau – The Whale

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

Nina Hoss – TÁR

Noémie Merlant – TÁR

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mark Rylance – Bones and All

Gabrielle Union – The Inspection

Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Win: Nina Hoss – TÁR

As with Cate Blanchett in Outstanding Lead Performance, being widely seen as the frontrunner in his Oscar race will give Ke Huy Quan a boost here (as well as the fact that Troy Kotsur started his awards sweep at the Gothams last year, and many – myself included – continue to predict him to follow that same path). It’s unlikely any other contender has enough individual passion to topple him, but if I had to choose one, perhaps Nina Hoss is the dark horse runner-up thanks to her critical support and TÁR‘s strength (though she could also split votes with Noémie Merlant).

Best Screenplay

The cast of Women Talking

Lena Dunham – Catherine Called Birdy

Todd Field – TÁR

James Gray – Armageddon Time

Kogonada – After Yang

Sarah Polley – Women Talking

Will Win: Sarah Polley – Women Talking

Could Win: Todd Field – TÁR

Typically, the winners in this category are Best Feature nominees – and oftentimes, even the eventual Best Feature winners – so the fact that Women Talking was “snubbed” there is slightly worrying. However, I feel that the voters will want the film, and Sarah Polley, to go home with something, and since TÁR will likely get its flowers elsewhere, I’m sticking with WT for the time being.

Breakthrough Director

Paul Mescal and Charlotte Wells for Aftersun

Elegance Bratton – The Inspection

Beth de Araújo – Soft & Quiet

Owen Kline – Funny Pages

Antoneta Alamat Kusijanović – Murina

Jane Schoenbrun – We’re All Going to the World’s Fair

Charlotte Wells – Aftersun

Will Win: Charlotte Wells – Aftersun

Could Win: Elegance Bratton – The Inspection

Charlotte Wells helmed the most-nominated film in this line-up, with four nominations for Aftersun to The Inspection‘s three (which made it the second most-nominated film overall too), so I think it’s safe to say she’s likely in the lead at the moment – especially when you take into account the fact that Aftersun also happens to be the most critically acclaimed film of the year. Yeah, she should run away with this one.

Breakthrough Performer

Frankie Corio and Paul Mescal in Aftersun

Anna Cobb – We’re All Going to the World’s Fair

Frankie Corio – Aftersun

Anna Diop – Nanny

Gracija Filipović – Murina

Kali Reis – Catch the Fair One

Will Win: Frankie Corio – Aftersun

Could Win: Anna Diop – Nanny

Since she leads the most-nominated movie in this line-up, I think Aftersun‘s Frankie Corio is the current frontrunner – especially in a category that often favors younger contenders, such as The Witch‘s Anya Taylor-Joy, Call Me by Your Name‘s Timothée Chalamet, Eighth Grade‘s Elsie Fisher, Waves‘ Taylor Russell, and CODA‘s Emilia Jones – but I’m not sleeping on Anna Diop (who is perhaps the “biggest name” in this bunch) or Anna Cobb, whose film picked up another big nomination in Breakthrough Director.

Best Documentary Feature

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

I Didn’t See You There

The Territory

What We Leave Behind

Will Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Could Win: All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is the easy bet here – it’s this year’s Golden Lion winner and a critical darling – but All That Breathes and The Territory have the next biggest buzz and significant social narratives going for them as well, so if voters want to spread the love and honor a doc that hasn’t had its time to shine in the spotlight yet, I could easily see them doing so. I don’t have a strong enough case to switch from All the Beauty, but I do think there’s space for a surprise here.

Best International Feature

Park Hae-il and Tang Wei in Decision to Leave


The Banshees of Inisherin


Decision to Leave


Saint Omer

Will Win: Decision to Leave

Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

This is an embarrassment of riches. I do think Decision to Leave could have the edge given critics’ affinity for Park Chan-wook (and the colossal critical acclaim that film has received), but I wouldn’t count out the equally acclaimed The Banshees of Inisherin, or perhaps even the 2021 Golden Lion winner Happening or this year’s Silver Lion winner Saint Omer. As I said, an embarrassment of riches! But I’m still picking Park.


Breakthrough Series – Short Form

The cast of Abbott Elementary

Abbott Elementary

As We See It


Rap Sh!t

Somebody Somewhere

Will Win: Abbott Elementary

Could Win: As We See It

Abbott Elementary is the talk of the town and is headed into the winter awards as the frontrunner in almost all comedy categories, so I expect the Gothams to follow suit and honor it here as well. However, if there’s an upset, I could see the the revolutionary As We See It – which tackles adult autism in an authentic and moving manner so rarely seen in mainstream entertainment – pull it off.

Breakthrough Series – Long Form

Adam Scott, Zach Cherry, John Turturro, and Britt Lower in Severance



Station Eleven

This Is Going to Hurt


Will Win: Severance

Could Win: Pachinko

I think this is an incredibly close race between Severance and Pachinko – with Yellowjackets as the dark horse – and I’m giving the very slight edge to Severance for now because of how all-consuming the critical acclaim for that show has been, but there’s a part of me that thinks this group may opt to recognize Pachinko, especially since it doesn’t generate anywhere near as much attention as its competition – or as it should.

Breakthrough Nonfiction Series

Nathan Fielder's The Rehearsal

The Andy Warhol Diaries

The Last Movie Stars

Mind Over Murder

The Rehearsal

We Need to Talk About Cosby

Will Win: The Rehearsal

Could Win: We Need to Talk About Cosby

The Rehearsal was a smash hit with both critics and crowds this summer, dominating the social media discourse in a way formerly reserved for HBO’s drama and miniseries juggernauts, so I’d have to say its the favorite for now, but I can also see voters shifting their support to something like We Need to Talk About Cosby instead, as a project like that naturally has more social significance that they may wish to uplift.

Outstanding Performance in a New Series

Melanie Lynskey in Yellowjackets

Bilal Baig – Sort Of

Ayo Edebiri – The Bear

Janelle James – Abbott Elementary

Kim Min-ha – Pachinko

Matilda Lawler – Station Eleven

Britt Lower – Severance

Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets

Zahn McClarnon – Dark Winds

Sue Ann Pien – As We See It

Ben Whishaw – This Is Going to Hurt

Will Win: Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets

Could Win: Janelle James – Abbott Elementary

Melanie Lynskey is so loved by critics – and particularly in this powerhouse part in the equally acclaimed Yellowjackets – that I have a hard time seeing her lose this one, but this is a staggeringly strong group, so I’m still somewhat bracing for a shock. Might Abbott Elementary‘s Janelle James overtake her? Both lost at the Emmys this year, so voters have the opportunity to give either one a public celebration and canonization of their work. This could be tight.

Written by
Though Zoë Rose Bryant has only worked in film criticism for a little under three years - turning a collegiate passion into a full-time career by writing for outlets such as Next Best Picture and Awards Watch - her captivation with cinema has been a lifelong fascination, appreciating film in all its varying forms, from horror movies to heartfelt romantic comedies and everything in between. Born and raised in Omaha, Nebraska, she made the move to Los Angeles in 2021 after graduating college and now spends her days keeping tabs on all things pop culture and attempting to attend every screening under the sun. As a trans critic, she also seeks to champion underrepresented voices in the LGBTQ+ community in film criticism and offer original insight on how gender and sexuality are explored in modern entertainment. You can find Zoë on Twitter, Instagram, and Letterboxd at @ZoeRoseBryant.

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