Zoë’s 2023 Academy Awards Predictions – December 17th

What a week, huh? I purposely didn’t update my Oscar predictions last Friday or Saturday because I knew we had so much more information coming this week, but now, it might arguably be too much (but we’ll make do). The 8th and the 9th brought us the announcement of the National Board of Review Awards and the American Film Institute’s Top 10 Films (and TV Shows), respectively, and that following Monday, we learned of the nominations for the 80th Golden Globes, and that following Wednesday, the nominations for the 28th Critics Choice Awards were also made public. What were the biggest developments to arise from all these announcements? Well, for one, Everything Everywhere All at Once isn’t going anywhere, and in fact, it’s leading the nominations at several groups, including the Critics Choice Awards (it narrowly trailed The Banshees of Inisherin at the Golden Globe Awards with six nominations to that film’s eight, but both bested The Fabelmans, suggesting that the impending Best Picture battle might be between these two instead). Elsewhere, Babylon managed to make a name for itself with major awards bodies despite initially mixed reactions – earning five nominations from the Golden Globe Awards and nine from the Critics Choice Awards (the third highest overall) – and James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water continued to assert its dominance and make clear that the master had “done it again,” and that his Pandora pictures should no longer be underestimated. But, because there’s simply so much to discuss with how much this race has shifted, I’ve decided to break my updates down category by category to give you all a more in-depth read of how I’m seeing these races. So, without further ado, let’s get into it.


BEST PICTURE

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – NBR, AFI, GG, CC, HCA

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (+2) – NBR, GG, CC, HCA

3. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) (-1) – NBR, AFI, GG, CC, HCA

4. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) (+1) – NBR, AFI, GG, CC, HCA

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) (+4) – NBR, AFI, GG, CC, HCA

6. Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+2) – AFI, GG, CC, HCA

7. TÁR (Focus Features) – AFI, GG, CC, HCA

8. Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (-5) – NBR, AFI, CC, HCA

9. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-3) – GG, CC

10. RRR (Variance Films) (NEW) – NBR, CC, HCA

ALTERNATES:

11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) (+1) – NBR, GG, CC

12. The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) (+6) – NBR, AFI, HCA

13. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG

14. She Said (Universal Pictures) (-3) – AFI

15. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) (-5)

16. Aftersun (A24) (-2) – NBR

17. Living (Sony Pictures Classics) (NEW)

18. Decision to Leave (MUBI) (-3)

19. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) (+1)

20. The Whale (A24) (-3)

The biggest news to come out of all these announcements in regards to the Best Picture race was the solidification of our top five films in Best Picture, as Avatar: The Way of WaterThe Banshees of InisherinEverything Everywhere All at OnceThe Fabelmans, and Top Gun: Maverick were the only films to receive mentions from NBR, AFI, the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, and the Hollywood Critics Association. Elvis and TÁR aren’t too far behind – only missing NBR – but since they sport a Best Actor frontrunner and Best Actress frontrunner respectively, they’re staying afloat regardless. A film that took a hit everywhere was, sadly, Sarah Polley’s Women Talking, especially after being nearly blanked by the Globes with nominations only in Best Screenplay and Best Original Score. And even at the Critics Choice Awards, it continued to struggle somewhat, only getting one of its acting contenders (Jessie Buckley) nominated, and in a category (Best Supporting Actress) where it had once been shortlisted for two. This hit, along with its waning passion elsewhere, has caused it to drop in multiple categories this week.

Babylon, which many still seem to count out in spite of its ability to nab major nominations from major precursors (and in spite of the possibility of its healthy future nomination haul at the Oscars, where it’s win competitive in 2-3 categories), rebounded after missing mentions at NBR and AFI, though it’s likely still a bottom-tier Best Picture contender on account of its continued misses in the Best Director and Best Original Screenplay categories. As for that 10th spot? This week, I’m going with S.S. Rajamouli’s RRR, which has showed growing strength ever since Rajamouli shocked by winning the NYFCC’s Best Director award, as now, the film also has two Golden Globe Awards nominations and five Critics Choice Award nominations under its belt (including in crucial categories at the latter ceremony, like Best Picture and Best Director). Its closest competitors for that 10th spot are Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (which itself nabbed two Golden Globe Awards nominations and six at Critics Choice, including for key categories like Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay, after earning a NBR mention the week before) and The Woman King (an NBR and AFI favorite that only earned one Golden Globe Award nomination for lead Viola Davis but four at Critics Choice, including for Davis and director Gina Prince-Bythewood, yet may struggle to secure a path for itself at the Oscars), but I think RRR has more passion at the moment.

Still, I think that, ultimately the Best Picture race is coming down to the films with the strongest chances of acting and writing wins, and that’s Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of InisherinThe Fabelmans is undoubtedly a top three contender if for no other reason than for Steven Spielberg’s continued dominance in the Best Director category, but it’s struggling to secure winning narratives anywhere else, while EEAAO has both Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan earning frontrunner status, and The Banshees of Inisherin has two compelling acting win contenders too in the form of Colin Farrell (Austin Butler’s biggest challenger) and Kerry Condon (who can take advantage of a chaotic Best Supporting Actress category). Additionally, both are going head-to-head in Best Original Screenplay, but, as you’ll see later, I think EEAAO has the edge there for the time being (I’m looking at this of a repeat of Get Out vs. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, McDonagh’s last film, where the genre-bending feature with supplemental social commentary was seen as the more “creative” choice and won out), and I suspect that to be the turning point for Best Picture.


BEST DIRECTOR

Steven Spielberg directing The Fabelmans

1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA

2. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG, CC, HCA

3. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) (+5) – GG, CC, HCA

4. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) – CC, HCA

5. S.S. Rajamouli – RRR (Variance Films) (NEW) – CC, HCA

ALTERNATES:

6. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (+1) – GG, CC, HCA

7. Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI) (-2) – HCA

8. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-2) – CC

9. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (-6) – CC, HCA

10. Baz Luhrmann – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (NEW) – GG, CC, HCA

Cameron’s in, Polley’s out, and Spielberg’s still on top. As much as it pain me to push Sarah Polley out of the top five, it’s clear that there’s something going on with Women Talking where it’s struggling to connect with broader audiences of awards voters (I have a few theories…), and thus far, Polley has only been able to nab nominations in Best Director categories where there are ten nominees. And when you account for the ascension of Avatar: The Way of Water‘s James Cameron – an Oscar-winning legend to this branch, who has once again ushered in a technological revolution with this sequel – it makes things a little more crowded. I still have the race between Spielberg and Daniels (and while some continue to count the latter out, I refuse to do so, given their ability to show up at ceremonies like the Golden Globes where they were similarly doubted before and the fact that they’re helming a super artistically showy Best Picture frontrunner), but I do think Spielberg will, at the very least, get a win here, as his narrative is just too tantalizing to pass up, and Daniels can receive their due elsewhere (Best Original Screenplay).

Martin McDonagh hasn’t missed a beat thus far, but in spite of Banshees‘ Best Picture strength, I actually think he’s still vulnerable for a Best Director nomination with The Academy’s directors’ branch, as he was with Three Billboards. It’s not the biggest director’s showcase (it’s more of an acting/writing piece), and while some are suggesting Cameron is the shocking miss, he seems to me more like the West Side Story Steven Spielberg of this year – a legendary director doing supremely showy work whom we initially count out because we say “they’ve seen this before!” (either in regards to WSS being a remake or The Way of Water being a sequel), but, in the end, they’re safe because of who they are and what they’ve done (and I similarly refuse to knock out TÁR‘s Todd Field, as he’s such a quintessential Best Director save). And who do I think McDonagh is missing out for? Well, I can’t not have some international representation here after that’s been a consistent trend for the past five years, and while we once thought Decision to Leave‘s Park Chan-wook would nab that spot (especially for helming the Best International Feature frontrunner), I’m selecting S.S. Rajamouli, following RRR‘s newfound Best Picture strength.


BEST ACTOR

Austin Butler in Elvis

1. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – GG, CC, HCA

2. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA

3. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24) – GG, CC, HCA

4. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, CC

5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) – CC, HCA

ALTERNATES:

6. Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA

7. Hugh Jackman – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) (+1) – GG

8. Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – GG

9. Jeremy Pope – The Inspection (A24) (NEW) – GG

10. Adam Sandler – Hustle (Netflix)

Not much movement in Best Actor this week, aside from the solidification of Elvis‘ Austin Butler and The Banshees of Inisherin‘s Colin Farrell as our top two (especially following the continued fall of Brendan Fraser’s The Whale, which is receiving even more mixed reviews now in limited release and eroding nominations left-and-right), and I still believe Butler will come out on top. I know Farrell will easily win the Golden Globe and has a path to win at BAFTA (though they don’t always go for the “hometown favorite,” as Bohemian Rhapsody‘s Rami Malek and King Richard‘s Will Smith can attest), but riddle me this: why is Elvis – a film that was a huge hit and the highest grossing non-blockbuster contender in the race overall – doing this well if Butler isn’t the frontrunner to win? It just wouldn’t make much sense to me. Voters clearly love the movie, as has already been oft-reported, and Butler is also a much more stereotypical Best Actor winner than Farrell in spite of the latter’s critics sweep, giving a showy and transformative turn in a biopic.

This feels to me like a repeat of The Theory of Everything‘s Eddie Redmayne and Birdman‘s Michael Keaton in 2014. Both were on their first nominations, with the former giving a showy and transformative turn in a biopic as Stephen Hawking, while Keaton was in a much stronger movie overall (and the eventual Best Picture winner) and banking on an “overdue” narrative to take him to the win, especially after sweeping with critics. However, in the end, while that narrative and the critics push and his film’s strength made him a lock for a nomination, it was the young gun giving the more traditionally baity performance who prevailed in the end. And his age was no issue whatsoever, as some have suspected Butler’s might be (Redmayne was 33 when he won, Butler would be 31). If they like the film and the performance that much – and they’ve already proven they do with Elvis – it just doesn’t matter. Elvis is close to being a top five Best Picture contender with how it’s performed thus far and how it’s projected to perform at the Oscars, and I just don’t know why there’d be that much love for it if there also wasn’t enough for Butler to win.


BEST ACTRESS

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) (+1) – GG, CC, HCA

2. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) (-1) – GG, CC, HCA

3. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA

4. Margot Robbie – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – GG, CC

5. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (UAR/Orion) – CC, HCA

ALTERNATES:

6. Viola Davis – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) (+2) – GG, CC, HCA

7. Olivia Colman – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) (-1) – GG

8. Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony Pictures Releasing) (-1)

9. Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Searchlight Pictures) – GG

10. Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway (Apple TV+)

Yes, after one week of weakness – and after having Michelle Yeoh as my frontrunner since late September, no less – I’ve switched back to Yeoh as my Best Actress frontrunner once more, on the account of both EEAAO‘s increasing strength and her own, as she is, frankly, campaigning her ass off and having A Moment™, with many rallying around her as the best chance to award an Asian actress in the Best Actress category that we’ve ever had, on top of the fact that her performance in EEAAO is already simply stupefying, and she has earned this recognition after years of under-appreciation by The Academy. Blanchett remains a strong competitor, and she’ll win some precursors (the Drama Golden Globe for sure, and perhaps the BAFTA too), but Yeoh has more momentum right now. The Fabelmans‘ Michelle Williams seems to be safe at #3 – she’s not as win-competitive as Yeoh or Blanchett but not really at risk for a snub right now either – while I do believe Babylon‘s ability to stay in the race thus far will keep Margot Robbie in the thick of it, and her powerhouse performance also speaks for itself.

Some have her out in favor of having both Till‘s Danielle Deadwyler *and* The Woman King‘s Viola Davis in, but I’m worried they’re actually duking it out for the same spot. After Deadwyler missed a Golden Globe nomination – in a drama-specific category – she’s gonna need to make almost every single precursor to come to make a strong case for an eventual Best Actress nomination, while Davis has shown to be consistently stronger than her film, but if The Woman King falls to sturdier contenders overall, she could fall with it (i.e. if the film doesn’t end up breaking into Best Picture, while something like Babylon still does). It’s early days, so it’s too soon to say for sure who’s in and out when it comes to these bottom three, but I do believe these six women are the ones who are most competitive for Best Actress attention at the moment, as few other contenders have really made a major impression thus far (Empire of Light‘s Olivia Colman got a Golden Globe nod, but that’s it, and her film is falling).


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG, CC, HCA

2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA

3. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (+2) – GG, CC, HCA

4. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (+3) – GG

5. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) (-2) – CC

ALTERNATES:

6. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CC

7. Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix) (+1) – GG

8. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple TV+) (+1) – CC, HCA

9. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (-5) – HCA

10. Mark Rylance – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)

This award is Ke Huy Quan’s for the taking, and both Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan (!) are getting in with him – that’s what this last week told us. It’s not The Fabelmans getting two Best Supporting Actor contenders in, but more likely, The Banshees of Inisherin, especially after Paul Dano’s shocking Golden Globe snub. Who was it in favor of? Why that’d be Babylon‘s Brad Pitt, who, despite weathering PR woes at the moment relating to his ongoing legal feud with ex Angelina Jolie (and her abuse allegations), nabbed a nom with relatively little pushback, suggesting that the same could happen at future ceremonies with few in the industry batting an eye. He missed out on a Critics Choice nomination, but I suspect SAG could come calling for him (he’s a big star, Babylon is an actor’s showcase, etc.), perhaps in the place of another favorite. Another name I expect to see at SAG is Eddie Redmayne’s, who looks to be the Jared Leto/Ben Affleck of this year in Best Supporting Actor – a lone nominee for a movie not making much noise elsewhere (The Little Things for Leto, The Tender Bar for Affleck, and The Good Nurse for Redmayne) who nevertheless gets in at some precursors before being blanked at the Oscars on account of the low profile of his film, in favor of a Best Picture coattail typically (Judd Hirsch?).


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

1. Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) (NEW) GG, CC, HCA

2. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA

3. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) (+3) – GG, CC, HCA

4. Jessie Buckley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (-1) – CC

5. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) (+5) – CC, HCA

ALTERNATES:

6. Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) (+2) – GG

7. Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) (+2) – CC

8. Nina Hoss – TÁR (Focus Features) (-3)

9. Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures) (-2) – GG

10. Claire Foy – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (-9)

I have no clue what’s happening here, and if anyone else tells you they do, they’re lying. The only three contenders to receive nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and the Hollywood Critics Association are The Banshees of Inisherin‘s Kerry Condon, Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s Jamie Lee Curtis, and… Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s Angela Bassett?! Yup, it looks like Disney’s massive awards push for her – and the actress’ own undeniable overdue narrative – has made Angela Bassett a mainstay in this race, and I don’t think that support will stop any time soon, as she seems like a sure thing to snag a SAG nom (the first Black Panther won Best Ensemble there, and they love genre films and of course, big stars). A lot have Kerry Condon at #1 right now – for being a strong scene-stealer in one of the biggest Best Picture contenders in this race – or even Jamie Lee Curtis (as she has her own awards narrative, and could easily win the Golden Globe), but I’m not so sure. With Condon, she may be too small a name still to all of a sudden be an Oscar winner over some starrier competition (past “unknowns” who won on one of their first major roles like Lupita Nyong’o or Ariana DeBose were more undeniable sweepers), and with Curtis, she seems to be the least likeliest of EEAAO‘s acting bids to prevail – and it’d be a weird look if she did say, before Michelle Yeoh.

I acknowledge that Bassett’s film is not as strong as Banshees or EEAAO, but it’s not nothing either (it’s on track for 4-5 nominations), and it’s not like Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is hurting for visibility. In addition, I think she has just as strong a shot at winning the Globe as Jamie Lee Curtis – she’s also a big star, and it says a lot that she became the first actor to ever be nominated for a Golden Globe for a Marvel movie, signifying the passion this performance has. And if Bassett gets to give a speech anywhere (say, maybe at SAG, if the Golden Globes don’t pan out?), it’s sure to bring the house down, potentially kickstarting her career coronation. It’s nowhere near a lock just yet, but because there’s so much we still don’t know about this category, I feel most comfortable just going out on a limb, especially because I do think there’s some evidence to support this prediction. Elsewhere, my former frontrunner, Claire Foy, has fallen to #10 after failing to show up at the Golden Globes or Critics Choice, and I think her co-star, Jessie Buckley, could take her place in this line-up instead, benefitting off a better arc in the film and the afterglow from her nomination last year (she did get in at Critics Choice, after all). Lastly, I have Stephanie Hsu coat-tailing Jamie Lee Curtis – and EEAAO‘s strength overall – after showing up at Critics Choice and several key critics groups, though Triangle of Sadness‘ Dolly de Leon – now a Golden Globe nominee – is nipping on her heels.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, and Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG, CC, HCA

2. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (+1) – GG, CC, HCA

3. Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) (-1) – GG, CC, HCA

4. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) – GG, CC, HCA

5. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)

ALTERNATES:

6. Charlotte Wells – Aftersun (A24) (+2) – CC

7. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-1)

8. Seth Reiss and Will Tracy – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures) (-1) – HCA

9. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI)

10. James Gray – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)

As mentioned earlier, I believe our 1/2/3 here is the same as it is in Best Picture – Everything Everywhere All at OnceThe Banshees of Inisherin, and The Fabelmans. If you have one of those other two films winning, chances are, you have them winning here too. But I think that, at the end of the day, the unbridled creativity found in EEAAO will have voters regarding it as the most “original” screenplay, much as they’ve done in the past for genre-bending picks with supplemental social relevance a la Django Unchained, Her, Get OutParasite, and Promising Young Woman. Elsewhere, TÁR still seems secure for a nomination here, and while I do believe Triangle of Sadness could be our yearly lone nominee based on NEON’s backing and the script’s own audacious strengths, Charlotte Wells’ Aftersun is creeping up the chart after a surprise Critics Choice nomination.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The cast of Women Talking

1. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – GG, CC, HCA

2. Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CC, HCA

3. Rebecca Lenkiewicz – She Said (Universal Pictures) – CC, HCA

4. Kazuo Ishiguro – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – CC

5. Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) (+3)

ALTERNATES:

6. David Kajganich – Bones and All (MGM/UAR) (-1)

7. Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix) (-1)

8. Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale (A24) (+1) – CC, HCA

9. Guillermo del Toro, Patrick McHale, and Matthew Robbins – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) (-2) – HCA

10. Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson, and Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

Despite it cratering in other categories, Sarah Polley’s Women Talking remains on top here, and I suspect it’s going to follow the path of 2017’s Call Me by Your Name. What was once a Best Picture frontrunner takes a tumble as a result of its own division and other pictures earning more passion ahead of it, and it ultimately ends up with four nominations – Picture/Actor/Adapted Screenplay/Original Song for CMBYN, and Picture/Supporting Actress/Adapted Screenplay/Original Score for Women Talking – and still wins in Adapted Screenplay, partially because it’s in a field with next-to-no other Best Picture contenders, so it has the heat by default. I just really can’t think of anything that would challenge it, especially because I don’t yet see Glass Onion as a surefire Best Picture player, and She Said has also fallen off significantly. I do think Sony Picture Classics’ campaign for Living has started to secure it a spot here, as I began to predict a few weeks ago, and those seem to be the undeniable top four right now, but while most have The Whale in that fifth spot, I think it will continue to fall off as the critical reception grows more mixed. And though I see the case for a lone nominee like Bones and All or White Noise, I’m going to take a leap and say Top Gun: Maverick might get in here, on account of its growing strength across-the-board. It is a genuinely sharply scripted sequel, and hey, Christopher McQuarrie is an Oscar winner after all.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Avatar: The Way of Water

1. Russell Carpenter – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CC, HCA

2. Claudio Miranda – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) (+2) – CC, HCA

3. Linus Sandgren – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-1) – CC

4. Janusz Kamiński – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) (-1) – CC, HCA

5. Roger Deakins – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) (+1) – CC

ALTERNATES:

6. Greig Fraser – The Batman (Warner Bros.) (+1) – HCA

7. Darius Khondji – Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) (-2)

8. James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

9. Ben Davis – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

10. Larkin Seiple – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) (NEW) – HCA

The race here looks to be between the visual epic Avatar: The Way of Water and current critics favorite Top Gun: Maverick, but I suspect Avatar‘s strength in more tech categories (including Best Director and Best Visual Effects) will give it the edge, along with the fact that it’s the bigger/showier work between the two. Babylon and The Fabelmans seem poised for positions near the middle of the pack – not contending for the win but showy enough to not be snubbed – while I put Empire of Light in that fifth spot ahead of the still-competitive likes of The Batman and Bardo, partially because it’s been showing up consistently in several important places (such as Critics Choice) and also because you just can’t ever count out Deakins.


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Austin Butler in Elvis

1. Catherine Martin – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+1) – CC, HCA

2. Mary Zophres – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-1) – CC, HCA

3. Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CC, HCA

4. Gersha Phillips – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) (+1) – CC, HCA

5. Jenny Beavan – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features) (+1) – HCA

ALTERNATES:

6. Mark Bridges – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) (-2)

7. Shirley Kurata – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CC

8. Sandy Powell – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)

9. Jenny Eagan Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) (NEW) – CC

10. Linda Muir – The Northman (Focus Features) (NEW)

As Babylon takes a bit of a hit from its mixed critical reception, I think it will lose some ground in several categories, with Costume Design being one of them (especially because I already have it pegged to win two other Oscars). Not only is the work not quite as showy as say, its production design or its score, but also, Elvis‘ Catherine Martin – a two-time winner here – is not to be underestimated, especially for a bombastic biopic with loads of colorful and creative costumes to show off (and as the film rises, it’s likely that it may contend more heavily for wins outside of Best Actor and Best Makeup and Hairstyling, too). Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and The Woman King are showing up everywhere they need to – and there’s simply so much work in both films that they’re almost impossible to ignore – while The Fabelmans‘ costume design, despite being the work of two-time Oscar winner (and four-time nominee) Mark Bridges, surprisingly missed a Critics Choice nomination even in a field of six, and it hasn’t been popping up with many other awards bodies either. It’s not undeniably showy work, so as the film begins to fall overall, it’s not inconceivable that it could lose ground in some categories that once seemed like “gimmes.” In its place, I’ve put Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris right now, which is a movie about fashion and seems tailor-made for a lone Best Costume Design nomination, especially since it was done by last year’s winner Jenny Beavan.


BEST FILM EDITING

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CC, HCA

2. Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA

3. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+1) – CC

4. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, and Stephen E. Rivkin – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) (+2) – CC

5. Tom Cross – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – CC

ALTERNATES:

6. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) (-3)

7. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (+2)

8. A. Sreekar Prasad – RRR (Variance Films) (NEW) – HCA

9. Bob Ducsay – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) (-1) – HCA

10. Christopher Donaldson and Roslyn Kalloo – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (-3)

The Best Film Editing category usually aligns closely with the Best Sound category (and even moreso, now that there’s only one), so looking there can help influence your predictions here, but there are also just a few obvious nominees this year that can’t be ignored. The race is mostly between Everything Everywhere All at Once (which features some of the most imaginative editing maybe ever) and Top Gun: Maverick (which is all but assured for that Best Sound win already, making it hard to bet against given the two categories’ interconnectivity), but Elvis – which itself features supremely showy editing and is likely a shoo-in for a Best Sound nomination – shouldn’t be counted out, and Avatar is also another surefire contender if for no other reason than the ambition of its action filmmaking. The Fabelmans was once firmly in this five, but after a shocking miss at the Critics Choice Awards (again, in a field of six) and some others at key critics groups, it could be the one surprising “snub” we get every year for a major Best Picture contender (RomaOnce Upon a Time in HollywoodMankBelfast, etc.), especially as the film falls elsewhere. That allows the divisive – but exhilaratingly edited – Babylon to be safe, for now.


BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING

Austin Butler in Elvis

1. Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston, and Shane Thomas – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CC, HCA

2. Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, and Adrien Morot – The Whale (A24) – CC, HCA

3. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Zoe Tahir – The Batman (Warner Bros.) – CC, HCA

4. Camille Friend and Joel Harlow – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CC, HCA

5. Michelle Chung and Anissa Salazar – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) (NEW) – CC, HCA

ALTERNATES:

6. Jaime Leigh McIntosh and Heba Thorisdottir – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-1) – CC

7. Louisa V. Anthony, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Babalwa Mtshiselwa, and Jamika Wilson – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) (-1)

8. Heike Merker – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) (-1)

9. Tina Roesler Kerwin and Jaime Leigh McIntosh – Blonde (Netflix) (-1)

10. Sarah Rubano – X (A24) (-1)

This category so often ties with an acting win that it almost feels like a cheat to predict Elvis for the trophy after switching to Austin Butler in Best Actor, but it makes a lot of sense as, the work on Tom Hanks aside, the makeup in the film is pretty fantastic and pretty “obvious,” which is the type that tends to win here. The Whale and The Batman are right behind, while Black Panther – thanks to more makeup work in Wakanda Forever – should get in this time, and I swapped out Babylon for Everything Everywhere All at Once, with the latter having “more” to show off, appearing as a stronger contender overall, and making it into this category at ceremonies where it wasn’t expected to.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Justin Hurwitz – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA

2. Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – GG, CC, HCA

3. Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – GG, CC, HCA

4. John Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CC

5. Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, HCA

ALTERNATES:

6. Michael Giacchino – The Batman (Warner Bros.) (+2) – CC, HCA

7. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

8. Simon Franglen – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) (-2)

9. Terence Blanchard – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) (NEW)

10. Ludwig Göransson – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) (NEW)

The division surrounding Babylon will not hurt it here, simply because Justin Hurwitz’s score for Babylon is, well, that much of a banger. It’s by far and away the “most” score in contention this year, and typically, that’s what wins. Women Talking‘s Hildur Guðnadóttir and Pinocchio‘s Alexandre Desplat still seem like the next surest things, while The Fabelmans‘ John Williams will get in simply because of who he is (even if that score is a little sparse), and though The Banshees of Inisherin‘s Carter Burwell was snubbed by the Critics Choice Awards, he still looks like the likeliest contender to round out this quintet, unless the branch wants to be cool and throw The Batman a bone.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Naatu Naatu” – RRR (Sarigama Cinemas) (+2) – GG, CC

2. “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – GG, CC

3. “Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) (-2) – GG, CC

4. “Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – GG, CC

5. “Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman (Samuel Goldwyn Films)

ALTERNATES:

6. “Carolina” – Where the Crawdads Sing (Sony Pictures Releasing) (NEW) – GG, CC

7. “New Body Rhumba” – White Noise (Netflix) (+1) – CC

8. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) (NEW)

9. “Nobody Like U” – Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation) (-3)

10. “This Is A Life” – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) (-1)

Five songs have made both the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards line-ups for Best Original Song – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s “Lift Me Up,” Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio‘s “Ciao Papa,” RRR‘s “Naatu Naatu,” Top Gun: Maverick‘s “Hold My Hand,” and Where the Crawdads Sing‘s “Carolina” – while CCA had six spots, so White Noise‘s “New Body Rhumba” got in there too. I don’t think “Carolina” makes it all the way to the Oscars (it’s one of the highest profile songs in contention because of Taylor Swift’s involvement, but The Academy’s songwriting branch will be pickier), and I think Diane Warren (who’s back this year with Tell It Like A Woman‘s “Applause”) can’t be counted out, so I’ve subbed her in for Swift. As for the win, I think it’s between the two songs that have the most traction outside of the awards race – Rihanna’s “Lift Me Up” and Lady Gaga’s “Hold My Hand” – and “Naatu Naatu.” However, on account of RRR‘s recent rise and “Naatu Naatu” standing out more as a scene actually in that movie (as opposed to an end credits song), I’ll give it the edge for now.


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Margot Robbie and the cast of Babylon in Babylon

1. Florencia Martin (Production Design) and Anthony Carlino (Set Decoration) – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA

2. Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (Production Design) and Vanessa Cole (Set Decoration) – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) (+3) – CC, HCA

3. Catherine Martin (Production Design) and Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration) – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (-1) – CC, HCA

4. Hannah Beachler (Production Design) and Lisa Sessions Morgan (Set Decoration) – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) (-1) – CC, HCA

5. Rick Carter (Production Design) and Karen O’Hara (Set Decoration) – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) (-1) – CC

ALTERNATES:

6. Jason Kisvarday (Production Design) and Kelsi Ephraim (Set Decoration) – Everything Everywhere All at Once (Netflix) (NEW) – CC

7. Akin McKenzie (Production Design) and Birrie Le Roux (Set Decoration) – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) (+1)

8. Christian M. Goldbeck (Production Design) and Ernestine Hipper (Set Decoration) – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) (-1)

9. Molly Hughes (Production Design) and Emma Rudkin (Set Decoration) – Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios) (NEW)

10. Mark Tildesley (Production Design) and Patricia Cuccia (Set Decoration) – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) (-1)

Avatar: The Way of Water is challenging Babylon for the crown right now, but I can see more voters favoring Babylon‘s physical production design over Avatar‘s digital environments, especially since recreations of Hollywood’s Golden Age have historically done very well here (Once Upon a Time in HollywoodMank, etc.). Elvis – the latest from two-time Oscar winner Catherine Martin – and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – the sequel to a winner in this category – should both be safe for nominations too, while I think The Fabelmans also has enough of a personal narrative to stay in the final five in this category (recreating Spielberg’s childhood homes and whatnot), but Everything Everywhere All at Once has been doing very well for itself lately, so watch out.


BEST SOUND

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

1. Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, and Mark Weingarten – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – HCA

2. Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers, and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – HCA

3. Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, and Wayne Pashley – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+1) – HCA

4. William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson, and Stuart Wilson – The Batman (Warner Bros.) (-1) – HCA

5. Ian Chase, Alexandra Fehrman, Brent Kiser, Stephen Nelson, and Andrew Twite – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

ALTERNATES:

6. Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil, and Markus Stemler – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) (+1)

7. Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Steven Morrow, and Andy Nelson – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-1)

8. Brian Chumney, Ronald Judkins, Andy Nelson, and Gary Rydstrom – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

9. Paul “Salty” Brincat, Chris Burdon, William Miller, Oliver Tarney, and Rachael Tate – Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios/MGM)

10. Johnnie Burn and Jose Antonio Garcia – Nope (Universal Pictures)

We all know this is Top Gun‘s for the taking, and everyone else is fighting for scraps. Avatar, Elvis, and The Batman seem like near-sure-things for nominations behind it, while Everything Everywhere All at Once should really be getting in here if it wants a claim to that Best Film Editing Oscar, but watch out for All Quiet on the Western Front (which, as a war film, should be something these voters will eat up, but isn’t being campaigned as heavily as it should be) and Babylon (which is literally about sound).


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Sam Worthington as Jake Sully in Avatar: The Way of Water

1. Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri, and Eric Saindon – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CC, HCA

2. Benjamin Brewer, Jeff Desom, Ethan Feldbau, and Zak Stoltz – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CC, HCA

3. Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Ryan Tudhope – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA

4. Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon, and Dominic Tuohy – The Batman (Warner Bros.) (+1) – CC

5. V. Srinivas Mohan – RRR (Variance Films) (NEW) – CC, HCA

ALTERNATES:

6. Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick, and Chris White – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) (+1) – CC

7. Theo Bialek, Chris Corbould, Janek Sirrs, and Erik Winquist – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) (-1)

8. Scott R. Fisher, Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, and Sreejith Venugopalan – Nope (Universal Pictures) (+1)

9. Ivan Busquets, Marko Chulev, Abishek Nair, and Steven Nichols – Good Night Oppy (MGM/UAR) (-1)

10. Pete Dionne, Luke Millar, Jake Morrison, and Dan Oliver – Thor: Love and Thunder (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

It’s Avatar‘s. Moving on.

(All jokes aside, beyond Avatar‘s locked win, I think Best Picture contenders Everything Everywhere All at Once and Top Gun: Maverick are likely right behind it, and then we get into a bit murkier territory, with remaining Critics Choice Award nominees The BatmanBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever all duking it out for two spots – and other blockbusters like Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Nope waiting in the wings. I’ll give The Batman, for its beautiful blend of practical and visual effects, and RRR, for its recent rise across-the-board, the edge for now, but neither are as “in” as the top three.)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – GG, CC, HCA

2. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation) – GG, CC, HCA

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation) – GG, CC, HCA

4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24) (+2) – GG, CC, HCA

5. Wendell & Wild (Netflix) (+2) – CC

ALTERNATES:

6. Inu-Oh (GKIDS) (NEW) – GG

7. The Bad Guys (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation) (-2) – HCA

8. My Father’s Dragon (Netflix) (-4)

9. Lightyear (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation) (-1)

10. Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood (Netflix)

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio remains the frontrunner here, but since it’s not quite the critics sweeper some thought it would be (as Marcel the Shell with Shoes On has been surprisingly nipping at its heels), it’s not as teflon as once assumed. It should still be out ahead – as even the populist contenders, Pixar’s Turning Red and DreamWorks’ Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, aren’t absurdly strong or anything – though it’s something to consider anyway. That fifth spot remains tough to crack, but I’ll go with Critics Choice nominee Wendell & Wild, as I can buy Netflix getting two contenders in, especially with Henry Selick behind the latter.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Navalny

1. Navalny (Warner Bros.) (+1)

2. Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/NEON) (+1)

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) (+1)

4. All That Breathes (Submarine Deluxe) (+2)

5. Descendant (Netflix)

ALTERNATES:

6. Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios) (-5)

7. Moonage Daydream (NEON)

8. The Territory (National Geographic Documentary Films)

9. Sr. (Netflix)

10. Sidney (Apple TV+)

Good Night Oppy‘s recent PGA miss – in favor of All That BreathesDescendantFire of LoveNavalnyNothing Compares, and The Territory – is a huge hit that knocks it off my past frontrunner position for it and out of the category entirely, allowing Navalny to once again take the top spot for its political relevance, though the tender Fire of Love is right behind it, and I won’t be counting out Golden Lion winner All the Beauty and the Bloodshed either. All That Breathes, meanwhile, continues to strengthen its case for a nomination.


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Park Hae-il and Tang Wei in Decision to Leave

1. Decision to Leave (MUBI) – South Korea – GG, CC, HCA

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – Germany – GG, CC, HCA

3. Close (A24) – Belgium (+1) – GG, CC, HCA

4. Argentina, 1985 (Amazon Studios) – Argentina (+6) – GG, CC, HCA

5. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) – Mexico (-2) – CC

ALTERNATES:

6. Saint Omer (TBD) – France (-1)

7. EO (TBD) – Poland

8. The Quiet Girl (Break Out Pictures) – Ireland (NEW)

9. Joyland (Film Constellation) – Pakistan (-3)

10. Holy Spider (Utopia) – Denmark (-1)

If India had submitted RRR here, it’d be winning in a landslide. As it stands, Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave is our current frontrunner, but not an undeniable one, as I can see cases for All Quiet on the Western Front and Close – the next highest contenders – too. Argentina, 1985 also had a strong showing this week with nominations at both the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards, while Bardo, which only showed up at Critics Choice, is on thin ice, but I have some confidence that the branch might save it. If they don’t, Saint OmerEO, and The Quiet Girl are the likeliest films to take its place.


WIN/NOMINATION TALLIES

  • Everything Everywhere All at Once (5 wins/11 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, and Jonathan Wang)
    • Best Director (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
    • Best Actress (Michelle Yeoh)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Stephanie Hsu)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
    • Best Film Editing (Paul Rogers)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Michelle Chung and Anissa Salazar)
    • Best Sound (Ian Chase, Alexandra Fehrman, Brent Kiser, Stephen Nelson, and Andrew Twite)
    • Best Visual Effects (Benjamin Brewer, Jeff Desom, Ethan Feldbau, and Zak Stoltz)
  • The Fabelmans (1 win/8 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Kristie Macosko Krieger, Tony Kushner, and Steven Spielberg)
    • Best Director (Steven Spielberg)
    • Best Actress (Michelle Williams)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Paul Dano)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg)
    • Best Cinematography (Janusz Kamiński)
    • Best Original Score (John Williams)
    • Best Production Design (Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara)
  • Elvis (3 wins/7 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, and Schuyler Weiss)
    • Best Actor (Austin Butler)
    • Best Costume Design (Catherine Martin)
    • Best Film Editing (Jonathan Redmond and Matt Villa)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston, and Shane Thomas
    • Best Production Design (Bev Dunn, Catherine Martin, and Karen Murphy)
    • Best Sound (Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, and Wayne Pashley)
  • Babylon (2 wins/7 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Olivia Hamilton, Marc Platt, and Matthew Plouffe)
    • Best Actress (Margot Robbie)
    • Best Cinematography (Linus Sandgren)
    • Best Costume Design (Mary Zophres)
    • Best Film Editing (Tom Cross)
    • Best Original Score (Justin Hurwitz)
    • Best Production Design (Anthony Carlino and Florencia Martin)
  • The Banshees of Inisherin (0 wins/7 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Graham Broadbent, Pete Czerin, and Martin McDonagh)
    • Best Actor (Colin Farrell)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Brendan Gleeson)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Barry Keoghan)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Martin McDonagh)
    • Best Original Score (Carter Burwell)
  • Avatar: The Way of Water (2 wins/7 nominations)
    • Best Picture (James Cameron and Jon Landau)
    • Best Director (James Cameron)
    • Best Cinematography (Russell Carpenter)
    • Best Film Editing (David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, and Stephen Rivkin)
    • Best Production Design (Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole, and Ben Procter)
    • Best Sound (Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers, and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle)
    • Best Visual Effects (Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri, and Eric Saindon)
  • Top Gun: Maverick (1 win/7 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, David Ellison, and Christopher McQuarrie)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer)
    • Best Cinematography (Claudio Miranda)
    • Best Film Editing (Eddie Hamilton)
    • Best Original Song (“Hold My Hand”)
    • Best Sound (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, and Mark Weingarten)
    • Best Visual Effects (Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Ryan Tudhope)
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (1 win/5 nominations)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Angela Bassett)
    • Best Costume Design (Ruth E. Carter)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Camille Friend and Joel Harlow)
    • Best Original Song (“Lift Me Up”)
    • Best Production Design (Hannah Beachler and Lisa Sessions Morgan)
  • Women Talking (1 win/4 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Frances McDormand)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Jessie Buckley)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Sarah Polley)
    • Best Original Score (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
  • RRR (1 win/4 nominations)
    • Best Picture (D.V.V. Danayya)
    • Best Director (S.S. Rajamouli)
    • Best Original Song (“Naatu Naatu”)
    • Best Visual Effects (V. Srinivas Mohan)
  • TÁR (0 wins/4 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Todd Field, Scott Lambert, and Alexandra Milchan)
    • Best Director (Todd Field)
    • Best Actress (Cate Blanchett)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Todd Field)
  • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (1 win/3 nominations)
    • Best Animated Feature (Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Lisa Henson, and Gary Ungar)
    • Best Original Score (Alexandre Desplat)
    • Best Original Song (“Ciao Papa”)
  • The Batman (0 wins/3 nominations)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Zoe Tahir)
    • Best Sound (William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson, and Stuart Wilson)
    • Best Visual Effects (Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon, and Dominic Tuohy)
  • Living (0 wins/2 nominations)
    • Best Actor (Bill Nighy)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Kazuo Ishiguro)
  • The Whale (0 wins/2 nominations)
    • Best Actor (Brendan Fraser)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, and Adrien Morot)
  • Aftersun (0 wins/1 nominations)
    • Best Actor (Paul Mescal)
  • Till (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Actress (Danielle Deadwyler)
  • Triangle of Sadness (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Ruben Östlund)
  • Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Rian Johnson)
  • She Said (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
  • Empire of Light (0 wins/1 nominations)
    • Best Cinematography (Roger Deakins)
  • The Woman King (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Costume Design (Gersha Phillips)
  • Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Costume Design (Jenny Beavan)
  • Tell It Like a Woman (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Original Song (“Applause”)
  • Turning Red (0 wins/2 nominations)
    • Best Animated Feature (Lindsey Collins and Domee Shi)
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature (Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, Jordan Peele, Win Rosenfeld, and Henry Selick)
  • Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature (Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, and Paul Mezey)
  • Wendell & Wild (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature (Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, Jordan Peele, Win Rosenfeld, and Henry Selick)
  • Navalny (1 win/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Fire of Love (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • All That Breathes (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Descendant (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Decision to Leave (1 win/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • All Quiet on the Western Front (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • Close (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • Argentina, 1985 (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
Written by
Though Zoë Rose Bryant has only worked in film criticism for a little under three years - turning a collegiate passion into a full-time career by writing for outlets such as Next Best Picture and Awards Watch - her captivation with cinema has been a lifelong fascination, appreciating film in all its varying forms, from horror movies to heartfelt romantic comedies and everything in between. Born and raised in Omaha, Nebraska, she made the move to Los Angeles in 2021 after graduating college and now spends her days keeping tabs on all things pop culture and attempting to attend every screening under the sun. As a trans critic, she also seeks to champion underrepresented voices in the LGBTQ+ community in film criticism and offer original insight on how gender and sexuality are explored in modern entertainment. You can find Zoë on Twitter, Instagram, and Letterboxd at @ZoeRoseBryant.

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