Hey again fellow awards obsessives, and happy… Saturday? Yes, my apologies that this week’s predictions piece is a day late, but that’s for two reasons. One, the New York Film Critics Circle announced their annual awards yesterday, and I wanted to be able to assess them in this week’s article. Two, I finally saw Damien Chazelle’s beautifully bombastic Babylon last night, and I couldn’t possibly put a piece together without including my thoughts on that potential Oscar titan as well. Additionally, I also caught up with Empire of Light (yay!) and The Whale (nay!) this week, and I’ll be touching on my theories and Hot Takes™ on their awards chances as well. So, without further ado, let’s dive in, starting with NYFCC.
It’s Lydia Tár’s world, and we’re all just living in it. Yes, a few weeks after Lydia Tár started to take over social media thanks to an influx of memes that have begun to imagine her as a real person (following TÁR‘s release on PVOD), TÁR has started taking over awards season as well, rebounding after only winning one of its five nominations at the Gotham Awards (Best Screenplay, for Todd Field) by winning Best Film and Best Actress for Cate Blanchett (who lost out to Till‘s Danielle Deadwyler at the Gotham Awards, which at least gave Deadwyler a much needed campaign boost) at NYFCC. This isn’t the biggest surprise in the world – TÁR is an NYFCC movie through-and-through, incredibly intellectual in a way that many New York critics typically take to – but it will be interesting to see if the film and Blanchett can keep this momentum going through the rest of the critics awards, including with the remaining two groups in the “big three” (LAFCA and NSFC). My gut says “yes,” as TÁR (alongside Searchlight’s The Banshees of Inisherin) seems to be THE critics darling of the year, and now, I might finally be relenting and accepting that Blanchett could be approaching a level of “undeniability” in the Best Actress race. I’ve never not acknowledged that she is widely seen as The Frontrunner™ for the time being – even while buying into the theory that Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s Michelle Yeoh could receive a SAG boost and also be carried along with her film if it’s winning Best Picture – but there’s an equal chance that Blanchett could just be too individually tough to topple this year, especially since she’s TÁR’s best (and only) real chance at an Oscar win, while EEAAO will be covered elsewhere (and even though it may initially seem odd for the acclaimed lead actor of a potential Best Picture winner to not win alongside their film, this same thing to 12 Years a Slave‘s Chiwetel Ejiofor, Birdman‘s Michael Keaton, and The Shape of Water‘s Sally Hawkins, so it’s not impossible).
Elsewhere at NYFCC, Colin Farrell won Best Actor for both The Banshees of Inisherin and After Yang (he’s likely to be the favorite here all season, though I suspect the broader industry will take more to Elvis‘ Austin Butler and his film, as I explained in a piece earlier this week), Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s Ke Huy Quan continued his likely awards sweep in Best Supporting Actor, and Nope‘s Keke Palmer shocked with a Best Supporting Actress win (Is she actually a supporting actress in that film? Eh, who cares when her win rules this much?!). A few very “NYFCC wins” included: Martin McDonagh prevailing in Best Screenplay, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On coming out on top as their unconventional Best Animated Film winner, Aftersun catapulting over its competition in Best First Film, and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed pulling ahead in Best Non-Fiction Film. The shocks were: RRR‘s S.S. Rajamouli winning Best Director, Top Gun: Maverick taking home Best Cinematography, and Poland’s EO pulling ahead in Best International Film. Rajamouli might be one to keep an eye on in Best Director as this year’s “international contender,” but he has tough competition from Decision to Leave‘s Park Chan-wook and BARDO‘s Alejandro González Iñárritu – whose films were actually selected by their countries to be their International Feature Film submissions, unlike RRR – and even Triangle of Sadness‘ Ruben Östlund, whose film is simply more Oscar friendly. I will add though that Top Gun‘s NYFCC win did get me to take it more seriously as Best Cinematography nominee (along with another adjustment I’ll mention in a minute), as it is superbly showy work with a helluva production story in a film that will likely be one of the biggest contenders of the season, and it was done by Oscar winner Claudio Miranda. Doesn’t its path look a little clearer now?
Moving on to the films I screened this week, the first was Sam Mendes’ Empire of Light, which came into the season as a potential frontrunner on the page – a film written/directed by the Oscar-winning Mendes, starring the Oscar-winning Olivia Colman, shot by the Oscar-winning Roger Deakins, edited by the Oscar-winning Lee Smith, and scored by the Oscar-winning Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross that also happens to be a “love letter to cinema,” to boot – but stumbled out of the gate at the fall festivals after it was revealed to be a smaller and simpler love story (that still tried to tackle larger social issues, like care for the mentally ill and racial injustice), and now, ahead of its limited release, it seems like the buzz has all but dissipated entirely. When I started my screener, I had already lowered my expectations substantially, but I found myself pleasantly surprised by this lovely little lark, falling head over heels for Mendes’ delicate direction of this adult-targeted romantic drama. It’s a good old-fashioned prestige picture that doesn’t aspire to change the world, and it doesn’t have to! But I fear that those rotten reviews will continue to keep this one down, especially with Searchlight now throwing all their weight behind The Banshees of Inisherin, which is in much better shape (and actually win-competitive in a few categories too). I do see paths to nominations for Olivia Colman in Best Actress, Roger Deakins in Best Cinematography, and Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross in Best Original Score, but while they’re all doing reliably great work here, I also don’t think it’s as showy or substantial as their best work, so they’re far from sure things, especially given that these categories are some of the most competitive this season. Don’t count Empire of Light out completely – it’s better than it’s been given credit for, the story and style could be catnip for older Oscar voters, and Searchlight knows what it’s doing – but don’t have too high of hopes either.
Now, where do you start with The Whale? I had already begun to switch to Austin Butler in Best Actor this past week after hearing how well-received Elvis had been at Academy screenings – and conversely, how The Whale was becoming even more controversial by the day – but when I was finally able to see it for myself… any faith I had in the film faded instantly. I’ll do my best to keep my own personal thoughts on it and how poorly it depicts its subject matter out of this discussion (if you want to hear that, you can watch my latest YouTube video discussing how and why it didn’t work for me whatsoever), but even from an objective/analytical viewpoint, this film just does not play. Sarah Polley’s Women Talking has been the film most accused of being “stagey” and “contained” this year – even when those “critiques” don’t hold much water when you actually watch the film – but if you think that will hurt her, I don’t see how it doesn’t take The Whale down too, when it’s an even more claustrophobic viewing experience, and one that struggles severely in converting the play its based on into a cinematic offering. Dialogue feels forced, many plot machinations are overly manufactured, and even though those who favor the film have cited its emotionality as a strength, there are just as many who say that the film is unsuccessfully straining for this depth, particularly because of the often unempathetic way it showcases Charlie’s (Brendan Fraser’s character, a 600-pound man confined to his apartment) condition. And if you think this is just me being harsh on the film, let’s look at the numbers, which don’t lie; The Whale is currently sitting at a 71% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 on Metacritic, and I suspect those scores will continue to trend downward as A24 starts screening the film for more critics ahead of its limited release next week, as the most recent reactions have been pretty brutal.
Sure, you can say those at least aren’t rotten scores (yet). And yeah, mixed reviews haven’t stopped the likes of Rami Malek or Joaquin Phoenix from still pulling ahead in their Best Actor races when all was said and done. But Malek and Phoenix starred in films that were not only true-blue cinematic spectacles in every sense of the word, but also huge box office hits, which is something The Whale likely won’t be able to say (in fact, Austin Butler has already claimed the position of being the “people’s choice” this season, after Elvis earned nearly $300 million worldwide and received rave reactions from audiences all summer). And if this sudden shift away from Fraser amongst pundits seems sudden, I think that’s because the Film Twitter Bubble™ surrounding The Whale has yet to burst. These negative reviews are not new – in fact, The Whale has been divisive all season long thus far, with Fraser’s performance constantly praised more than the picture itself – nor are the conversely crowdpleasing responses to Elvis. But, because Brendan Fraser has dominated the Best Actor conversation due to his “career comeback” (which caused him to receive standing ovations at all the fall festivals where The Whale screened), many – myself included – misinterpreted the love for Fraser individually as love for The Whale as well, or love for his performance at the very least, which seemed to be strong enough to supersede whatever you felt for the film. Unfortunately, there’s a real chance that may not be the case, as his film just simply isn’t as strong as those of his competitors (Austin Butler’s Elvis and also Colin Farrell’s The Banshees of Inisherin), and it looks like we’re headed towards a repeat of last year’s Best Actress switch-up, where Spencer‘s Kristen Stewart – another Film Twitter Favorite™ – was hyped up as the frontrunner in her category despite the film she starred in being deemed “divisive” the whole time. I think Fraser will still get his nom – that’s where the love for him will manifest – and I suspect nods for Hong Chau (who is having a helluva year herself, between this, The Menu, and Showing Up) in Best Supporting Actress and the makeup team will still follow, but I don’t think this one has what it takes to win.
Anyway, that’s enough negativity for today. Let’s get into some good news: Babylon is still a big contender. It’s honestly perfect to follow our discussion of The Whale with a deep dive on Babylon, because this is the difference between a divisive movie that doesn’t play (the former) and a divisive movie that does (the latter). Yeah, it helps that Babylon has a bit more pedigree in its cast and crew that will get more eyeballs on it, but this is also an infinitely more visually expansive and entertaining movie that will keep viewers (and voters) engaged with its powerhouse performances and vast production value, no matter how they feel about the (admittedly overlong) runtime or certain twists and turns. Don’t get me wrong – despite my own personal praise for the film (which again, doesn’t factor into my predictions), it’s not perfect, and there are many valid critiques one could hurl at it or writer-director Damien Chazelle. However, while that may mean Chazelle himself misses out on directing or writing nods (I think he’s closer to squeaking into Best Director, though he’ll have to fend off the film’s division and fierce competition all jockeying for those final five spots), there are certain things about the film that just feel undeniably Oscar-worthy, no matter where you fall on it overall. For one, it’s consummately crafted from top-to-bottom; I expect it to run the tables in the Best Production Design and Best Original Score races (Justin Hurwitz came back with a VENGEANCE after being snubbed for First Man), and Best Costume Design could become just as much of a lock (though Elvis is encroaching on the top spot there), while the consuming cinematography and exhilarating editing should also be strong bets for nominations. And additionally, though there’s been some debate in recent weeks, I really fail to see a world in which Margot Robbie isn’t ultimately nominated for Best Actress. As Oscar Central’s Ricky Valero says, she’s simply a “human highlight reel” here, with almost every scene of hers giving her the space to show off all her staggering abilities as an actor, making her the star of the show from beginning to end. If it were up to me, she’d be joined by Diego Calva, who’s absolutely her equal in terms of the power of their screen presences, but he might face more of an uphill battle as a fresh face (though I can still see a world in which he – and yes, perhaps even Brad Pitt – get in alongside her, though she remains the film’s strongest chance at an acting nod).
Other odds and ends this week include:
- Now that I’ve dropped The Whale from my Best Picture predictions, that opened up my tenth spot again, and I decided to fill it with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. I was primarily choosing between that, She Said, and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (while also seeing a semblance of a path for NEON’s Triangle of Sadness), but I haven’t felt the best about not having a Netflix contender in here for awhile – I think their campaigning prowess is too prolific to count them out entirely – and Pinocchio continues to overperform when it comes to industry acclaim, and it should also be a commercial smash when it hits the streaming service this Friday.
- In Best Adapted Screenplay, I replaced The Whale with Living. That film is another that continues to overperform with crowds and critics – thanks to both its quality and Sony Pictures Classics’ killer campaign – and I think that, as more and more watch it for Bill Nighy’s poignant lead performance (that is quickly becoming a shoo-in for a Best Actor nod), they could find a lot to love with the script’s innovative update of Akira Kurosawa’s Ikiru, authored by Nobel Laureate Kazuo Ishiguro.
- Best Animated Feature is a bit of a chaotic category outside of frontrunner Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and runner-up Turning Red, but Puss in Boots: The Last Wish has recently entered the fray with fantastic reviews, and there’s a real world in which DreamWorks Animation gets two contenders in this year, as The Bad Guys was just as critically (and commercially) successful. I’ll also keep Netflix’s/Cartoon Saloon’s My Father’s Dragon in alongside those four, though with Netflix prioritizing Pinocchio, it hasn’t made as much noise as it should be, and it could be in a vulnerable position in the coming weeks.
BEST PICTURE
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
2. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
3. Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
5. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) (+1)
6. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-1)
7. TÁR (Focus Features)
8. Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+2)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) (+1)
ALTERNATES:
11. She Said (Universal Pictures) (+1)
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) (+1)
13. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) (+1)
14. Aftersun (A24) (+1)
15. Decision to Leave (MUBI) (+1)
16. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) (+1)
17. The Whale (A24) (-9)
18. The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)
19. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
20. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
3. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
4. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features)
5. Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI)
ALTERNATES:
6. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
7. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
8. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
9. Alejandro González Iñárritu – BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
10. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
BEST ACTOR
1. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+1)
2. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (+1)
3. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24) (-2)
4. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24)
ALTERNATES:
6. Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
7. Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
8. Hugh Jackman – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
9. Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
10. Adam Sandler – Hustle (Netflix)
BEST ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) (+1)
2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) (-1)
3. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
4. Margot Robbie – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
5. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (UAR/Orion)
ALTERNATES:
6. Olivia Colman – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
7. Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony Pictures Releasing)
8. Viola Davis – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)
9. Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway (Apple TV+)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
4. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (+3)
5. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
ALTERNATES:
6. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) (-2)
7. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-1)
8. Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix)
9. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple TV+)
10. Mark Rylance – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Claire Foy – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
2. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Jessie Buckley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
4. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24)
5. Nina Hoss – TÁR (Focus Features)
ALTERNATES:
6. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
7. Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures)
8. Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
9. Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
10. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
2. Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
3. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features)
5. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
ALTERNATES:
6. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
7. Seth Reiss and Will Tracy – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
8. Charlotte Wells – Aftersun (A24)
9. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI)
10. James Gray – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
2. Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) (+1)
3. Rebecca Lenkiewicz – She Said (Universal Pictures) (+1)
4. Kazuo Ishiguro – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) (+4)
5. David Kajganich – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
ALTERNATES:
6. Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Patrick McHale, and Matthew Robbins – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
8. Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) (+1)
9. Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale (A24) (-7)
10. Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson, and Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Russell Carpenter – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
2. Linus Sandgren – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
3. Janusz Kamiński – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
4. Claudio Miranda – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) (+4)
5. Darius Khondji – BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) (-1)
ALTERNATES:
6. Roger Deakins – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) (-1)
7. Greig Fraser – The Batman (Warner Bros.)
8. James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) (-2)
9. Ben Davis – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Robert Richardson – Emancipation (Apple TV+)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Mary Zophres – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
2. Catherine Martin – Elvis (Warner Bros.)
3. Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)
4. Mark Bridges – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
5. Gersha Phillips – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)
ALTERNATES:
6. Jenny Beavan – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features)
7. Shirley Kurata – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
8. Sandy Powell – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
9. Quita Alfred –Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
10. Alexandra Byrne – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
2. Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
3. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
4. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+1)
5. Tom Cross – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-1)
ALTERNATES:
6. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, and Stephen E. Rivkin – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
7. Christopher Donaldson and Roslyn Kalloo – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
8. Bob Ducsay – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
9. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Sven Budelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING
1. Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston, and Shane Thomas – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+1)
2. Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, and Adrien Morot – The Whale (A24) (-1)
3. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Zoe Tahir – The Batman (Warner Bros.)
4. TBD – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)
5. Jaime Leigh McIntosh and Heba Thorisdottir – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
ALTERNATES:
6. Louisa V. Anthony, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Babalwa Mtshiselwa, and Jamika Wilson – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)
7. TBD – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
8. TBD – Blonde (Netflix)
9. Sarah Rubano – X (A24)
10. TBD – Thor: Love and Thunder (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Justin Hurwitz – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
2. Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (+1)
3. Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) (-1)
4. John Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
5. Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
ALTERNATES:
6. Simon Franglen – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
7. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
8. Michael Giacchino – The Batman (Warner Bros.)
9. Danny Elfman – White Noise (Netflix)
10. Volker Bertelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)
2. “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
3. “Naatu Naatu” – RRR (Sarigama Cinemas)
4. “Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
5. “Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
ALTERNATES:
6. “Nobody Like U” – Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation) (+1)
7. “Song Chord” – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” – White Noise (Netflix)
9. “This Is A Life” – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
10. “(You Made It Feel Like) Home” – Bones and All (UAR/Orion)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Florencia Martin (Production Design) and Anthony Carlino (Set Decoration) – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
2. Catherine Martin (Production Design) and Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration) – Elvis (Warner Bros.)
3. Hannah Beachler (Production Design) and Lisa K. Sessions (Set Decoration) – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)
4. Rick Carter (Production Design) and Karen O’Hara (Set Decoration) – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
5. Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (Production Design) and Vanessa Cole (Set Decoration) – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
ALTERNATES:
6. TBD (Production Design) and TBD (Set Decoration) – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
7. Christian M. Goldbeck (Production Design) and Ernestine Hipper (Set Decoration) – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
8. Akin McKenzie (Production Design) and TBD (Set Decoration) – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)
9. Mark Tildesley (Production Design) and Patricia Cuccia (Set Decoration) – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Rick Heinrichs (Production Design) and Elli Griff (Set Decoration) – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
BEST SOUND
1. Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, and Mark Weingarten – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
2. TBD – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
3. William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson, and Stuart Wilson – The Batman (Warner Bros.)
4. Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, and Wayne Pashley – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+2)
5. Ian Chase, Alexandra Fehrman, Brent Kiser, Stephen Nelson, and Andrew Twite – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
ALTERNATES:
6. Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Steven Morrow, and Andy Nelson – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (+1)
7. TBD – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) (-5)
8. Brian Chumney, Ronald Judkins, Andy Nelson, and Gary Rydstrom – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
9. Paul “Salty” Brincat, Chris Burdon, William Miller, Oliver Tarney, and Rachael Tate – Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios/MGM)
10. TBD – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. TBD – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
2. Benjamin Brewer, Jeff Desom, Ethan Feldbau, and Zak Stoltz – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
3. Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Ryan Tudhope – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
4. TBD – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
5. Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon, and Dominic Tuohy – The Batman (Warner Bros.)
ALTERNATES:
6. TBD – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)
7. TBD – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)
8. Ivan Busquets, Marko Chulev, Abishek Nair, and Steven Nichols – Good Night Oppy (MGM/UAR)
9. Scott R. Fisher, Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, and Sreejith Venugopalan – Nope (Universal Pictures)
10. TBD – Thor: Love and Thunder (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
2. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation)
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation) (+4)
4. My Father’s Dragon (Netflix) (-1)
5. The Bad Guys (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation)
ALTERNATES:
6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)
7. Wendell & Wild (Netflix) (-3)
8. Lightyear (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation)
9. Strange World (Walt Disney/Walt Disney Animation)
10. Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood (Netflix)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios)
2. Navalny (Warner Bros.)
3. Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/NEON)
4. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON)
5. Descendant (Netflix)
ALTERNATES:
6. All that Breathes (Submarine Deluxe)
7. Moonage Daydream (NEON)
8. The Territory (National Geographic Documentary Films)
9. Sr. (Netflix)
10. Sidney (Apple TV+)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
1. Decision to Leave (MUBI) – South Korea
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – Germany
3. BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) – Mexico
4. Close (A24) – Belgium
5. Saint Omer (TBD) – France
ALTERNATES:
6. Joyland (Film Constellation) – Pakistan
7. EO (TBD) – Poland
8. Klondike (TBD) – Ukraine
9. Holy Spider (Utopia) – Denmark
10. Argentina, 1985 (Amazon Studios) – Argentina
WIN/NOMINATION TALLIES
- The Fabelmans (1 win/10 nominations)
- Best Picture (Kristie Macosko Krieger, Tony Kushner, and Steven Spielberg)
- Best Director (Steven Spielberg)
- Best Actress (Michelle Williams)
- Best Supporting Actor (Paul Dano)
- Best Original Screenplay (Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg)
- Best Cinematography (Janusz Kamiński)
- Best Costume Design (Mark Bridges)
- Best Film Editing (Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn)
- Best Original Score (John Williams)
- Best Production Design (Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara)
- Everything Everywhere All at Once (4 wins/8 nominations)
- Best Picture (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, and Jonathan Wang)
- Best Director (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
- Best Actress (Michelle Yeoh)
- Best Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan)
- Best Original Screenplay (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
- Best Film Editing (Paul Rogers)
- Best Sound (Ian Chase, Alexandra Fehrman, Brent Kiser, Stephen Nelson, and Andrew Twite)
- Best Visual Effects (Benjamin Brewer, Jeff Desom, Ethan Feldbau, and Zak Stoltz)
- Babylon (3 wins/8 nominations)
- Best Picture (Olivia Hamilton, Marc Platt, and Matthew Plouffe)
- Best Actress (Margot Robbie)
- Best Cinematography (Linus Sandgren)
- Best Costume Design (Mary Zophres)
- Best Film Editing (Tom Cross)
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Jaime Leigh McIntosh and Heba Thorisdottir)
- Best Original Score (Justin Hurwitz)
- Best Production Design (Anthony Carlino and Florencia Martin)
- Women Talking (2 wins/7 nominations)
- Best Picture (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Frances McDormand)
- Best Director (Sarah Polley)
- Best Supporting Actor (Ben Whishaw)
- Best Supporting Actress (Jessie Buckley)
- Best Supporting Actress (Claire Foy)
- Best Adapted Screenplay (Sarah Polley)
- Best Original Score (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
- Elvis (2 wins/7 nominations)
- Best Picture (Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, and Schuyler Weiss)
- Best Actor (Austin Butler)
- Best Costume Design (Catherine Martin)
- Best Film Editing (Jonathan Redmond and Matt Villa)
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston, and Shane Thomas
- Best Production Design (Bev Dunn, Catherine Martin, and Karen Murphy)
- Best Sound (Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, and Wayne Pashley)
- The Banshees of Inisherin (0 wins/7 nominations)
- Best Picture (Graham Broadbent, Pete Czerin, and Martin McDonagh)
- Best Actor (Colin Farrell)
- Best Supporting Actor (Brendan Gleeson)
- Best Supporting Actor (Barry Keoghan)
- Best Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon)
- Best Original Screenplay (Martin McDonagh)
- Best Original Score (Carter Burwell)
- Top Gun: Maverick (1 win/6 nominations)
- Best Picture (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, David Ellison, and Christopher McQuarrie)
- Best Cinematography (Claudio Miranda)
- Best Film Editing (Eddie Hamilton)
- Best Original Song (“Hold My Hand”)
- Best Sound (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, and Mark Weingarten)
- Best Visual Effects (Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Ryan Tudhope)
- Avatar: The Way of Water (2 wins/5 nominations)
- Best Picture (James Cameron and Jon Landau)
- Best Cinematography (Russell Carpenter)
- Best Production Design (Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole, and Ben Procter)
- Best Sound (TBD)
- Best Visual Effects (TBD)
- TÁR (1 win/5 nominations)
- Best Picture (Todd Field, Scott Lambert, and Alexandra Milchan)
- Best Director (Todd Field)
- Best Actress (Cate Blanchett)
- Best Supporting Actress (Nina Hoss)
- Best Original Screenplay (Todd Field)
- Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (1 win/5 nominations)
- Best Picture (Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Lisa Henson, and Gary Ungar)
- Best Animated Feature (Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Lisa Henson, and Gary Ungar)
- Best Original Score (Alexandre Desplat)
- Best Original Song (“Ciao Papa”)
- Best Visual Effects (TBD)
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (1 win/4 nominations)
- Best Costume Design (Ruth E. Carter)
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling (TBD)
- Best Original Song (“Lift Me Up”)
- Best Production Design (TBD)
- The Whale (0 wins/3 nominations)
- Best Actor (Brendan Fraser)
- Best Supporting Actress (Hong Chau)
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, and Adrien Morot)
- The Batman (0 wins/3 nominations)
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Zoe Tahir)
- Best Sound (William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson, and Stuart Wilson)
- Best Visual Effects (Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon, and Dominic Tuohy)
- Decision to Leave (1 win/2 nominations)
- Best Director (Park Chan-wook)
- Best International Feature Film
- Living (0 wins/2 nominations)
- Best Actor (Bill Nighy)
- Best Adapted Screenplay (Kazuo Ishiguro)
- BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (0 wins/2 nominations)
- Best Cinematography (Darius Khondji)
- Best International Feature Film
- Till (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Actress (Danielle Deadwyler)
- Triangle of Sadness (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Original Screenplay (Ruben Östlund)
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Adapted Screenplay (Rian Johnson)
- She Said (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Adapted Screenplay (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
- Bones and All (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Adapted Screenplay (David Kajganich)
- The Woman King (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Costume Design (Gersha Phillips)
- RRR (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Original Song (“Naatu Naatu”)
- Tell It Like a Woman (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Original Song (“Applause”)
- Turning Red (0 wins/2 nominations)
- Best Animated Feature (Lindsey Collins and Domee Shi)
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Animated Feature (Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, Jordan Peele, Win Rosenfeld, and Henry Selick)
- My Father’s Dragon (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Animated Feature (Bonnie Curtis, Julie Lynn, Nora Twomey, and Paul Young)
- The Bad Guys (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Animated Feature (Rebecca Huntley, Pierre Perifel, and Damon Ross)
- Good Night Oppy (1 win/1 nomination)
- Best Documentary Feature
- Navalny (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Documentary Feature
- Fire of Love (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Documentary Feature
- All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Documentary Feature
- Descendant (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best Documentary Feature
- All Quiet on the Western Front (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best International Feature Film
- Close (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best International Feature Film
- Saint Omer (0 wins/1 nomination)
- Best International Feature Film
