Zoë’s 2023 Academy Awards Predictions – January 14th

Long time no see, huh?

I know, I know – I haven’t done an “official” Oscar prediction update since December 23rd. But in my defense, it was the end of the year! For a little while there, nothing was happening. And now? EVERYTHING has happened.

In the past two weeks, almost all of the major guilds have weighed in on this awards season – including SAG (Screen Actors Guild), DGA (Directors Guild of America), PGA (Producers Guild of America), ASC (American Society of Cinematographers), CDG (Costume Designers Guild), MUAHS (Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists), ADG (Art Directors Guild), SDSA (Set Decorators Society of America), CAS (Cinema Audio Society), MPSE (Motion Picture Sound Editors), HMMA (Hollywood Music in Media Awards), and SCL (Society of Composers and Lyricists) – and now, we’re only waiting on VES (Visual Effects Society – January 17th), WGA (Writers Guild of America – January 25th), and ACE (American Cinema Editors – February 1st) to finish things off. Oh yeah, and there might have been these things called the BAFTA longlists released last Friday and some ceremony called the Golden Globes on Tuesday.

Jokes aside, when it comes to the BAFTA longlists, I do heavily consider every snub and surprise (and you’ll see longlist mentions noted below), but I’ll care most about what actually gets in in the end – and it’s also important to remember that BAFTA is the voting body that diverges most from the broader consensus every year, always throwing some curveballs our way. Sometimes, these curveballs are indicative of previously hidden international support for a certain contender. Other times? They lead us astray. Don’t ignore them completely, but they alone don’t mean a movie is in or out of the race (though when it comes to films like Babylon and Women Talking that are missing everywhere, their BAFTA longlists snubs certainly contribute to the narrative that they’re crumbling quickly).

And with the Golden Globes, while wins at this ceremony undeniably give contenders their first (televised) chance to make a public case for themselves and their campaign and gain momentum in a massive way, it’s also important to remember that the real race has actually only just started, and there’s more than enough time for a film that lost here to make up ground (case in point, CODA went home empty handed last year). This is to say that, while the narrative out of the GGs was that the Best Picture race is now between The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin and Steven Spielberg was safe in Best Director after all, I’d pump the brakes and not be so quick to say Everything Everywhere All at Once is “out” (especially before SAG) or that Steven Spielberg has no reason to sweat in the weeks to come.

But, that’s enough of an introduction. I know you all follow this as religiously as I do, so this is nothing new. Let’s just get right into it and see how much these categories have changed.


BEST PICTURE

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – NBR, AFI, GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG, PGA

2. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – NBR, AFI, GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG, PGA (+1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – NBR, AFI, GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG, PGA (-1)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – NBR*, AFI, GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, PGA

5. Elvis (Warner Bros.) – AFI, GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, PGA (+1)

6. TÁR (Focus Features) – AFI, GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, PGA (+1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – NBR, AFI, GG, CC, HCA, PGA (-2)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Longlist (+4)

9. The Whale (A24) – PGA (+11)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – PGA (+4)

ALTERNATES:

11. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG, BAFTA Longlist (+2)

12. Aftersun (A24) – NBR, BAFTA Longlist (+6)

13. Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – NBR, AFI, CC, HCA, SAG (-5)

14. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – GG, CC, SAG (-5)

15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – NBR, GG, CC, PGA (-4)

16. RRR (Variance Films) – NBR, CC, HCA (-6)

17. The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) – NBR, AFI, HCA (-2)

18. Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA Longlist (+1)

19. She Said (Universal Pictures) – AFI (-3)

20. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) (-3)

If it wasn’t already clear, this race is between Everything Everywhere All at OnceThe Fabelmans, and The Banshees of Inisherin – the only three films to receive mentions from NBR, AFI, the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, the Hollywood Critics Association, BAFTA, SAG (in the ensemble category), and PGA. Top Gun: Maverick is right behind at #4, hitting all these groups except for SAG, but without the support of the actors – or really any above-the-line branches (though director Joseph Kosinski’s DGA nod was a nice boost) – that Best Picture trophy likely remains out of reach. And then it’s Elvis vs. TÁR for the fifth spot, with both earning mentions from AFI, the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, the Hollywood Critics Association, BAFTA, and PGA (and an additional DGA nod for TÁR), but Elvis‘ larger potential nom haul makes me give it the edge for now. After that, Avatar: The Way of Water is probably safe at seventh despite a BAFTA longlist snub last week.

And here’s where things start to get tricky. I feel semi-confident in All Quiet on the Western Front at #8 given how it performed on both the Oscar shortlists and the BAFTA longlists, how many nominations it can nab, and how it’s quickly become the Best International Feature frontrunner, though a PGA nod would’ve made me feel even better. However, I’m certainly way more confident in it than I am in any films I’d slot in 9th or 10th. As a result of The Whale‘s growing nomination haul (with Hong Chau becoming stronger in the Best Supporting Actress race and the film holding ground in Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Makeup and Hairstyling) and its surprise PGA nod (very interesting for a small-scale single-location indie), I think it’s back in the thick of it, while I moved Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to #10 right behind it.

Do I feel good about having three sequels in Best Picture? No, but Wakanda Forever‘s PGA nom, which came on the heels of Angela Bassett’s big Golden Globes victory (making her the Best Supporting Actress frontrunner) and the film’s solidification of its place in 4-5 crafts categories, got me to pay attention, and I’m not sure I can predict a film to get this many nominations and not make it into Best Picture. Especially when this puts it on par with the first Black Panther and this one even has an acting contender (and potential winner). I’m not dead set on it yet, but the Best Picture line-up does usually feature eight to nine PGA nominees, and I’m at nine, so it’s not crazy either.

And honestly? I feel far less confident in essentially every other alternative. Babylon and Women Talking, despite (welcomed) surprise SAG noms, have fumbled the bag everywhere else and see their nomination hauls dwindle by the day (and it should be noted that SAG noms without corresponding PGA noms usually don’t mean much for a film’s Oscar chances). Glass Onion failed to show up at SAG – which should’ve been an easy get – while The Woman King missed that and PGA. RRR bombed on the BAFTA longlists (though some may say that’s due to the film’s subject matter). And on and on and on.

So, aside from The Whale and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, the main other two films I’m considering for #9 and #10 in Best Picture are two films that did very well on the BAFTA longlists – two potential international faves. There’s Triangle of Sadness, which has a solid Best Picture path if it can remain in the top five in Best Original Screenplay and also snag a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Dolly de Leon (though I would’ve liked to see her show up at SAG), and then there’s Aftersun, which sees its support grow by the day, and I’ve already had Paul Mescal in Best Actor for a few weeks now (though since I’ve put The Whale in Best Picture, I’m hesitant to say both films get in, as that would give me three A24 films in the line-up when you take EEAAO into account too, and that’s an incredibly rare feat, especially for an indie distributor).

When it comes to the winner, I still don’t see much of a reason to move from Everything Everywhere All at Once. I acknowledge the win potential for The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin, though I fail to see what the former is competitive for aside from Best Director (more on that in a moment) and the latter is losing ground in Best Actor to Austin Butler and the resurgent Brendan Fraser and Best Supporting Actress to the indomitable Angela Bassett, leaving Best Original Screenplay as its best (and maybe only) bet for a win. Meanwhile, EEAAO is win competitive in Best Actress, it’s the frontrunner by far and away in Best Supporting Actor, it’s strongly challenging Banshees in Best Original Screenplay (and will win WGA, where Banshees is ineligible), and it’s in a tight race with Top Gun for the Best Film Editing trophy.

There are just more paths EEAAO has to #1, and that’s without taking into account its very probable SAG victory in the coming months too – a ceremony that turned the tides for future Best Picture winners Parasite and CODA, and I suspect the same thing will happen for EEAAO. Am I worried about it losing Best Comedy/Musical and Best Screenplay to Banshees at the Golden Globes? Not at all. I always acknowledged that was a possibility (and even predicted the latter), and I actually think this was the best thing to happen to it. It did well enough (winning two major acting awards and allowing Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan to make two stirring speeches at a televised event) without overperforming and bearing the brunt of “frontrunner fatigue.” It’s in this for the long haul.


BEST DIRECTOR

The Daniels

1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, DGA (+1)

2. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG*, CC, HCA, DGA (-1)

3. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, DGA (+1)

4. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, DGA (+2)

5. Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Longlist (NEW)

ALTERNATES:

6. Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist (+1)

7. Charlotte Wells – Aftersun (A24) – BAFTA Longlist (NEW)

8. Baz Luhrmann – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist (+2)

9. Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA Longlist, DGA (NEW)

10. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – GG, CC, HCA (-7)

Almost ever year, this category lines up 4/5 with DGA. This year, the DGA nominees were Daniels, Todd Field, Joseph Kosinski, Martin McDonagh, and Steven Spielberg – and of those five, I suspect Kosinski is the weakest, given that he hasn’t shown up anywhere else and that Top Gun might be a bit too populist for the notoriously “artsy” Directors Branch. They’ll likely replace him with an international fave, and the hopefuls for that distinction are All Quiet on the Western Front‘s Edward Berger, Decision to Leave‘s Park Chan-wook, and Aftersun‘s Charlotte Wells. Park is the biggest name of this bunch – and long overdue for Oscar recognition – but since I have All Quiet in Best Picture (and winning International Feature Film), I’ll slot him in. Though maybe the “name” wins out here. Or perhaps both get in?

As for the win, I’ve recently made the switch to Daniels, as I do believe they’ll be walking home with Oscars at the end of the night, but I’ve just changed which category those Oscars will come from. Why, you might ask? Well, they’re by far and away the critical frontrunners (Spielberg has only won with NBR, a group that hasn’t correctly “called” the Best Director winner since The Departed‘s Martin Scorsese in 2006), but that’s not all – Steven Spielberg also couldn’t manage a BAFTA longlist mention last week in a group of sixteen potential nominees. That’s… really bad, and even worse for a film that’s been falling fast over the past month, missing nominations and mentions that should be “gimmes.” It stopped the bleeding somewhat with its two Golden Globes, but it wouldn’t be the first time the Globes went with the “wrong” Drama/Director combo (The Social Network/David Fincher, Boyhood/Richard Linklater, 1917/Sam Mendes, etc.), and he makes sense as their “safe” consensus choice.

But I’m just not sure he has the hype and momentum to actually go all the way, aside from being… “Steven Spielberg.” Again, it doesn’t help that this is the only category where The Fabelmans is actually win competitive. Are we in for another year of a lone Best Director winner? Can The Fabelmans win Picture just with Best Director as its other Oscar? I think that, even if Spielberg wins a few more precursors (Critics Choice, DGA, etc.), the consistently growing passion for EEAAO and Daniels’ potential Best Director victory at BAFTA (again, where Spielberg wasn’t even longlisted) will put them over the edge in the end, especially if the film ends up as the Best Picture winner as I’ve been predicting since the spring.


BEST ACTOR

Austin Butler in Elvis

1. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

2. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG (+1)

3. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG (-1)

4. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, CC, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

ALTERNATES:

6. Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

7. Adam Sandler – Hustle (Netflix) – SAG (+3)

8. Jeremy Pope – The Inspection (A24) – GG (+1)

9. Hugh Jackman – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG (-2)

10. Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – GG (-2)

Now that I’ve put The Whale back in Best Picture, I’ll consider Brendan Fraser a bit more as a challenger to Elvis‘ Austin Butler (even though Butler beat Fraser at the Golden Globes a few days ago), as they’re the two “transformative” performances in contention, which usually win out here. Colin Farrell remains the critical frontrunner, but when you look at historical precedent, that’d be a very unconventional Best Actor-winning role (it’s not “loud,” it’s not a “transformation,” etc.), though his Golden Globes win did give him a boost as well. I’m also not as convinced as some that he’s a SURE THING for a BAFTA win. Just because he’s… Irish? “Home-court advantage” didn’t help Vice‘s Christian Bale beat Bohemian Rhapsody‘s Rami Malek when some were predicting that, and it didn’t give The Power of the Dog‘s Benedict Cumberbatch a leg up on King Richard‘s Will Smith even as TPOTD won Best Film. BAFTA loved Elvis. They may just stick with Butler.

And I still do suspect Butler will come out top. Elvis is a far less divisive film than The Whale, it’s a far bigger hit (especially with the mainstream, which has helped past Best Actor winners pull apart from the pack like the aforementioned Malek and Joker‘s Joaquin Phoenix), and it’s been the more consistent contender all season long, making it in with almost every precursor while The Whale is only now catching up. Also, the “comeback” narrative is not usually a winning one. Eddie Murphy, Mickey Rourke, Micheal Keaton, Sylvester Stallone, etc etc etc. – voters rarely bite. And not only have many been warning of The Whale‘s potential parallels to The Wrestler since the start (though a potential Best Picture nom for the former complicates things), but this race is also shaping up to be almost identical to the one between the aforementioned Keaton (contending for future Best Picture winner Birdman) and The Theory of Everything‘s Eddie Redmayne. The former was “the comeback kid,” and the latter was the young transformative newbie (he was 33 when he won, while Butler would be 31). And in the end, the biopic boy won out.


BEST ACTRESS

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

2. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) – GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

3. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

4. Ana de Armas – Blonde (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA Longlist, SAG (+4)

5. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (UAR/Orion) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

ALTERNATES:

6. Viola Davis – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

7. Margot Robbie – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – GG, CC (-3)

8. Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie (Momentum Pictures) (NEW)

9. Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony Pictures Releasing) – BAFTA Longlist (NEW)

10. Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA Longlist (-1)

Save for one brief week of weakness at the start of December, I’ve had Michelle Yeoh at #1 in Best Actress since the end of October, and after she gave an instantly iconic acceptance speech at the Golden Globes earlier this week (a ceremony where the other Best Actress winner, Cate Blanchett, was not present to give a speech of her own), I see no reason to change that any time soon. I won’t deny that Cate Blanchett is a formidable competitor – she did earn the trifecta of Best Actress wins from critics groups NYFCC, LAFCA, and NSFC, even though Yeoh remains the critics frontrunner overall – but I’m sticking with Yeoh for a few reasons. For one, it “feels” as if the heat, hype, and momentum lies with her at the moment. She’s going up against an actress who has already won two Oscars, while she’s only now getting a long-overdue nomination, and if she does win, she’d be the first Asian woman to ever do so. Pairing her exciting, history-making narrative with her powerhouse performance and her placement in a film that’s a stronger contender overall (as a Best Picture frontrunner), and I think this uplifts Yeoh, as I’m getting the sense most voters will view this as HER moment.

Elsewhere, even though there are recent rumblings that Michelle Williams might be shunted to Supporting after that shocking SAG snub, I don’t buy into them all that much – it’s too late in the game to effectively make a move like that, and she’s already established herself as a lead for months. This is not the same situation as The Reader‘s Kate Winslet or Judas and the Black Messiah‘s Lakeith Stanfield. In my opinion, it’s likelier she misses entirely than suddenly shows up in Supporting. After Williams, I think Blonde‘s Ana de Armas is just “happening” at this point after nominations from the Golden Globes and SAG and her showing on the BAFTA longlist (plus Blonde‘s likely corresponding Best Makeup/Hairstyling nomination), and then there’s that coveted fifth spot. Some will have The Woman King‘s Viola Davis, but after that film failed to show up in the list of SAG Ensemble or PGA nominees, I worry she could be the contender that hits every precursor and misses out at the Oscars. In favor of who? Why that’d be Critics Choice and SAG nominee Danielle Deadwyler (who also showed up on the BAFTA longlist last week). I sense there’s more passion for that performance, and that SAG nomination showed her industry strength after an odd Golden Globes snub. Maybe Margot Robbie comes back, but as Babylon continues to tumble, I’m not hopeful.

(And yes, I’ve seen the hype for To Leslie‘s Andrea Riseborough in the industry too – a film and performance I’m also very fond of myself – but given the minimal campaigning distributor Momentum Pictures has done thus far and Riseborough’s inability to show up at any precursor, I’m… VERY wary of this buzz. This isn’t quite the same thing as Academy Award winner Penélope Cruz showing up last minute in film directed by Academy Award winner Pedro Almodóvar and distributed by the Oscar-savvy Sony Pictures Classics.)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

3. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

4. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CC, SAG (+1)

5. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – GG, BAFTA Longlist (-1)

ALTERNATES:

6. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist (+3)

7. Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

8. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CC (-2)

9. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple TV+) – CC, HCA (-1)

10. Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – BAFTA Longlist (NEW)

I know two things to be true in this category: Ke Huy Quan is winning (as I’ve predicted since the summer), and Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan are joining him as nominees. And now that Paul Dano showed up at SAG even when some weren’t expecting he would, I think he’s our fourth nominee, buoyed by The Fabelmans‘ Best Picture strength and his own overdue narrative. Then, there’s that tricky fifth spot. To be completely honest, I have literally no clue who’s getting in there, and I think we could be in store for an exciting surprise. For now, I’ve slotted in Babylon‘s Brad Pitt – even as the film has fallen elsewhere, he remains beloved (look no further than the perhaps controversial embrace he received from his peers at this year’s Golden Globes), and it’s telling that he was the only Babylon actor to show up on the BAFTA longlists. I don’t buy Eddie Redmayne – he’s the Jared Leto (The Little Things) and Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) of this year, an actor who gets Golden Globe and SAG noms for a film showing up nowhere else and then blanks at the Oscars – so my only other guess is Women Talking‘s Ben Whishaw, the only actor from his film to show up on the BAFTA longlists as well, like Pitt. And he very well could be juried for a nomination there too. (How weird would it be if the lone acting nomination for Women Talking is… the one man?).


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

1. Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)  GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

2. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

3. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG

4. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CC, HCA, SAG (+1)

5. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA Longlist, SAG (NEW)

ALTERNATES:

6. Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG, BAFTA Longlist

7. Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CC, BAFTA Longlist

8. Jessie Buckley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – CC (-4)

9. Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures) – GG, BAFTA Longlist

10. Claire Foy – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

As soon as it was becoming clear that Angela Bassett was A Thing™ in this category after her nominations at both the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards, I made her my frontrunner, believing her overdue narrative could potentially become undeniable (especially seeing the paths for her to win at both the Globes and SAG). And lo and behold, she’s now won her second Golden Globe and gave a pretty great acceptance speech to kickstart her campaign to boot. I’m sticking with her at #1 – which would make her the first actor to ever win an Oscar for a Marvel movie – though I have critics frontrunner Kerry Condon right behind, and Jamie Lee Curtis right behind her, as the only other actress other than these top two to make all the precursors so far. At #4, I’ve moved up Stephanie Hsu following her very welcome surprise of a SAG nomination (and her ability to coattail EEAAO‘s Best Picture buzz), and in fifth, I have fellow SAG nominee Hong Chau, who herself is riding the coattails of Best Actor contender Brendan Fraser and her potential Best Picture nominee of a film with The Whale (though she’s had one helluva year herself between this and The Menu). That means I dropped Jessie Buckley – who failed to make the BAFTA longlist – and she’s not even my alternate. That’d be Triangle of Sadness‘ Dolly de Leon, who could still rebound if that film overperforms. Right now, I’m going 5/5 with SAG, but since this is only acting category where I can say that, I’m not too worried – usually at least one does.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Barry Keoghan and Martin McDonagh in The Banshees of Inisherin

1. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist (+1)

2. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist (-1)

3. Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

4. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

5. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – BAFTA Longlist

ALTERNATES:

6. Charlotte Wells – Aftersun (A24) – CC, BAFTA Longlist

7. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

8. Seth Reiss and Will Tracy – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist

9. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI) – BAFTA Longlist

10. Sam Bromell, Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, and Craig Pearce – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA Longlist (NEW)

Because I’ve switched to predicting the Daniels to win “their” Oscars in Best Director, I’ve relented and decided to spread the love by giving Martin McDonagh the win here. Though, I do still think this is gonna be a nail-biter, very reminiscent of when McDonagh went head to head with Jordan Peele back in 2017. Then, his Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA while Peele’s Get Out won the Critics Choice Award and the WGA (where McDonagh was ineligible), and I’m predicting the same split for Banshees and EEAAO – give or take CC, which could turn the tide this time in McDonagh’s favor. Either way, EEAAO does need Director or Original Screenplay to win Best Picture but getting both wins is not a prerequisite to taking the top prize – it could be Birdman/Parasite, but it doesn’t have to be as the frontrunner in TWO acting races. So, for now, this feels “right.” McDonagh gets his due (as a writer – I know he already won Live-Action Short Film two decades ago) and so do Daniels for the overall creative vision of their film.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

1. Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale (A24) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist (+8)

2. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist (-1)

3. Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist (-1)

4. Kazuo Ishiguro – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – CC, BAFTA Longlist

5. Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson, and Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Longlist (+1)

ALTERNATES:

6. Rebecca Lenkiewicz – She Said (Universal Pictures) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist (-3)

7. Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA Longlist (-2)

8. Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro, Patrick McHale, and Matthew Robbins – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist (+1)

10. David Kajganich – Bones and All (MGM/UAR) (-2)

I’ve gotta prioritize the Best Picture nominees in this line-up as potential winners, and right now, it’s not looking like that’ll be Women Talking or Glass Onion, but instead, The Whale and All Quiet on the Western Front (with the ascension of the latter taking out She Said, which would’ve been a lone nominee). Of these two, I’m inclined to give the win to The Whale – it’s a play adaptation, which often fare well here (think The Father two years ago, which also sported a Best Actor frontrunner), and it’s got big emotional showy beats and lots of memorable, stirring dialogue that could pull on voters’ heartstrings. I’m not 100% confident in it yet, but based on where I see the tides turning in the top category, The Whale could become a frontrunner by default here.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

1. Claudio Miranda – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, ASC (+1)

2. Mandy Walker – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA Longlist, ASC (NEW)

3. Roger Deakins – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – CC, BAFTA Longlist, ASC (+2)

4. Greig Fraser – The Batman (Warner Bros.) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist, ASC (+4)

5. James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Longlist (+1)

ALTERNATES:

6. Darius Khondji – Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) – ASC (+1)

7. Russell Carpenter – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CC, HCA (-6)

8. Janusz Kamiński – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CC, HCA (-5)

9. Ben Davis – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA Longlist

10. Michał Dymek – EO (Janus Films) (NEW)

ASC really rocked our world, huh? For starters, it looks like Top Gun: Maverick really is the frontrunner after all, and Avatar won’t only be unable to challenge it for the win, but it’ll be lucky if it even gets a nom at all at this point, after misses with ASC and the BAFTA longlist. Since ASC usually goes 4/5 with the Oscar line-up, I’m gonna stick with that logic as well and slot in the quickly ascending ElvisEmpire of Light (lensed by branch fave Roger Deakins), and The Batman (shot by last year’s winner Greig Fraser, gunning for an afterglow nom), with All Quiet on the Western Front taking Bardo‘s place as my fifth nominee thanks to its BAFTA longlist placement. Avatar still has a chance – some have chalked up its BAFTA longlist misses to screener issues – but you know what’s conversely falling fast? Janusz Kamiński and The Fabelmans – and I’m not sure he can pull of a last minute miracle this year like he did with West Side Story.


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Austin Butler in Elvis

1. Catherine Martin – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, CDG

2. Mary Zophres – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, CDG

3. Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, CDG

4. Gersha Phillips – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) – CC, HCA, CDG

5. Jenny Beavan – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist, CDG

ALTERNATES:

6. Mark Bridges – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

7. Monika Buttinger – Corsage (IFC Films) – BAFTA Longlist (NEW)

8. Shirley Kurata – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CC, CDG (-1)

9. Jenny Eagan Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CC, BAFTA Longlist, CDG

10. Arianne Phillips – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros.) – CDG (NEW)

I’ve had this same five for awhile, and with The Fabelmans missing CC, HCA, the BAFTA longlist, and now the CDG as well, I feel pretty comfortable keeping it out, especially as the film itself falls elsewhere as well. And aside from that, there aren’t really many super strong contenders that could upset my predicted quintet – EEAAO and Glass Onion are both contemporary costuming, which tend to underperform here – so I’ll still stick with this for now.


BEST FILM EDITING

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

1. Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist (+1)

2. Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist (-1)

3. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CC, BAFTA Longlist

4. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, and Stephen E. Rivkin – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CC

5. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA Longlist (+2)

ALTERNATES:

6. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

7. Sven Budelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist (+1)

8. Tom Cross – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – CC, BAFTA Longlist (-3)

9. Bob Ducsay – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – HCA (NEW)

10. Christopher Donaldson and Roslyn Kalloo – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

Since I don’t have EEAAO nabbing a Sound nomination – at least for now – I’ve moved Top Gun to #1 here, as I can’t go against that stat (especially after this year, when Dune prevailed despite many doubting it), and Top Gun has been overperforming so much that it’d make sense for it to pull ahead here too as the “big action blockbuster,” even if EEAAO might actually have showier editing. Elsewhere, Elvis and Avatar seem like solid bets for noms without being win-competitive (and it helps that I believe they’ll get Sound noms too), while I’ve moved Banshees into fifth place as Fabelmans falls out – with the former film’s Best Picture buzz rising and the latter’s dwindling, given how this category tends to reflect those trends – though I’m keeping an eye on All Quiet on the Western Front.


BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING

Austin Butler in Elvis

1. Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston, and Shane Thomas – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, MUAHS

2. Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, and Adrien Morot – The Whale (A24) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, MUAHS

3. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Zoe Tahir – The Batman (Warner Bros.) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, MUAHS

4. Tina Roesler Kerwin and Jaime Leigh McIntosh – Blonde (Netflix) – BAFTA Longlist, MUAHS (+2)

5. Camille Friend and Joel Harlow – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, MUAHS (-1)

ALTERNATES:

6. Heike Merker – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Longlist (+2)

7. Jaime Leigh McIntosh and Heba Thorisdottir – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – CC, BAFTA Longlist, MUAHS (-2)

8. Lori McCoy Bell, Nana Fischer, and Adruitha Lee – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA Longlist, MUAHS (+1)

9. Andrea Bowman and Ken Diaz – Emancipation (Apple TV+) – BAFTA Longlist (+1)

10. Alexandra Anger and Monica Pavez – Crimes of the Future (NEON) (-3)

The film that wins Best Actor will win here too, and since I have Austin Butler ahead of Brendan Fraser, I’m sticking with Elvis at #1 in Best Makeup and Hairstyling. I moved Blonde up this week now that Ana de Armas becomes more of a consistent contender in Best Actress, while Black Panther and All Quiet are competing for that last spot, and I’ll give the edge to the Marvel movie since it has more precursor nods and a bit “showier” work.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Justin Hurwitz – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

2. John Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CC

3. Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – HMMA, GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

4. Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – HMMA*, GG, CC, HCA, SCL, BAFTA Longlist

5. Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – HMMA, GG, HCA, SCL, BAFTA Longlist

ALTERNATES:

6. Simon Franglen – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – HMMA*

7. Volker Bertelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Longlist

8. Terence Blanchard – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) – HMMA

9. Son Lux – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – HMMA, SCL, BAFTA Longlist

10. Ludwig Göransson – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – HMMA

Even as Babylon flops almost everywhere else, it should still have Best Original Score in the bag since its competition is… not all that strong. I’ve never thought The Fabelmans was a top contender here, and its BAFTA longlist snub should stop that talk for good. Women TalkingPinocchio, and Banshees seem solid for nominations, but they’re not dominating the winning conversation the way Babylon is, no matter what someone thinks of the film overall. AvatarAll QuietThe Woman King, and EEAAO are hoping one or two of the consensus five fall so they can rise, but I honestly feel pretty good about this quintet at the moment.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Naatu Naatu” – RRR (Sarigama Cinemas) – GG*, CC

2. “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – HMMA, GG, CC, SCL (+1)

3. “Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – HMMA*, GG, CC, SCL (-1)

4. “Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – HMMA*, GG, CC, SCL

5. “Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman (Samuel Goldwyn Films) – HMMA*, SCL

ALTERNATES:

6. “New Body Rhumba” – White Noise (Netflix) – HMMA, CC (+3)

7. “Carolina” – Where the Crawdads Sing (Sony Pictures Releasing) – HMMA, GG, CC, SCL (-1)

8. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) (-1)

9. “This Is A Life” – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – HMMA (-1)

10. “Good Afternoon” – Spirited (Apple TV+) – SCL (NEW)

Even though I’m no longer looking at RRR as a Best Picture/Best Director contender, I think “Naatu Naatu” has so much individual buzz that it can still score in the Best Original Song category regardless. Lady Gaga and Rihanna are right behind, but the energy of the “Naatu Naatu” campaign may be too much to ignore, especially as more and more voters are exposed to the magic and mania of the S.S. Rajamouli movie.


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Austin Butler and Luke Bracey in Elvis

1. Catherine Martin (Production Design) and Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration) – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CC, HCA, SDSA, BAFTA Longlist, ADG (+3)

2. Florencia Martin (Production Design) and Anthony Carlino (Set Decoration) – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA, SDSA, BAFTA Longlist, ADG (-1)

3. Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (Production Design) and Vanessa Cole (Set Decoration) – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CC, HCA, SDSA, BAFTA Longlist, ADG (-2)

4. Hannah Beachler (Production Design) and Lisa Sessions Morgan (Set Decoration) – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CC, HCA, SDSA, ADG (-2)

5. Christian M. Goldbeck (Production Design) and Ernestine Hipper (Set Decoration) – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Longlist, ADG (+1)

ALTERNATES:

6. Rick Carter (Production Design) and Karen O’Hara (Set Decoration) – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CC, SDSA, ADG (-1)

7. Jason Kisvarday (Production Design) and Kelsi Ephraim (Set Decoration) – Everything Everywhere All at Once (Netflix) – CC, SDSA, BAFTA Longlist, ADG (+1)

8. James Chinlund (Production Design) and Lee Sandales (Set Decoration) – The Batman (Warner Bros.) – SDSA, BAFTA Longlist, ADG (NEW)

9. Rick Heinrichs (Production Design) and Elli Griff (Set Decoration) – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – SDSA, ADG

10. Jess Gonchor (Production Design) and Claire Kaufman (Set Decoration) – White Noise (Netflix) – SDSA, ADG (NEW)

Since I’m sticking with Babylon in Best Original Score, I think I have to drop it here, sadly. I don’t feel great predicting a divisive non-Best Picture nominee for two Oscar wins, though it could still be possible. I’ll keep it at #2, but I’m bumping up Catherine Martin’s production design for Elvis, as I could see this pair with Costume Design as a nice duo of wins for her. She’s won both categories twice already (here for Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby), and the showy style of this Baz Luhrmann biopic draws a lot of attention. Avatar stays in my top three, though its predecessor won this category because it was such a revolutionary achievement, while I worry some could view the sequel – which is nowhere near as strong an awards contender – as “more of the same.” And finally, I bumped out the falling Fabelmans for All Quiet on the Western Front, as war films tend to do well here, and the profile of that Netflix title is rising fast.


BEST SOUND

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

1. Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, and Mark Weingarten – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – HCA, CAS, MPSE

2. Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil, and Markus Stemler – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Longlist, CAS, MPSE (+1)

3. Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, and Wayne Pashley – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist, CAS, MPSE (+1)

4. Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers, and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist, CAS, MPSE (-2)

5. William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson, and Stuart Wilson – The Batman (Warner Bros.) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist, CAS, MPSE

ALTERNATES:

6. Ian Chase, Alexandra Fehrman, Brent Kiser, Stephen Nelson, and Andrew Twite – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – BAFTA Longlist, MPSE (+1)

7. Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Steven Morrow, and Andy Nelson – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA Longlist (-1)

8. Scott Martin Gershin, Frank A. Montano, and Jon Taylor – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – BAFTA Longlist, CAS, MPSE (+2)

9. David Giammarco, Nina Hartstone, Paul Massey, and John Warhurst – Moonage Daydream (NEON) – CAS, MPSE

10. Steve Boeddeker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Peter J. Devlin, and Brandon Proctor – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) (-2)

We all know Top Gun is winning this, and I’m making it simple and sticking with the CAS nominees as my top five in the category overall (which I already had before those noms were announced). EEAAO needs to get in here if it wants to win Best Film Editing, but I’m not sure it can – what does it take out? Some would say The Batman, but the sound in that is so showy and more like what this branch usually honors than EEAAO‘s. It’ll remain my alternate, but I feel comfortable with the five above it.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Sam Worthington as Jake Sully in Avatar: The Way of Water

1. Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri, and Eric Saindon – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

2. Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Ryan Tudhope – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

3. Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick, and Chris White – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CC, BAFTA Longlist

4. Theo Bialek, Chris Corbould, Janek Sirrs, and Erik Winquist – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – BAFTA Longlist

5. Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon, and Dominic Tuohy – The Batman (Warner Bros.) – CC, BAFTA Longlist

ALTERNATES:

6. Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Müller, and Frank Petzold – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Longlist (+1)

7. Scott R. Fisher, Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, and Sreejith Venugopalan – Nope (Universal Pictures) (-1)

8. Paul Corbould, Neal Scanlan, David Vickery, and Alex Wuttke – Jurassic World: Dominion (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA Longlist

9. Benjamin Loch, Christian Manz, Stephane Naze, and Alistair Williams – Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA Longlist

10. Jason Billington, Bruce Bright, and Brian Cox – Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios)

No changes here – Avatar‘s winning and Top Gun + three comic book movies should join it – though I am keeping my eye on All Quiet to see if the love becomes SO big that it can take out one of the blockbusters.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, PGA

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, PGA

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, PGA

4. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist, PGA

5. Wendell & Wild (Netflix) – CC

ALTERNATES:

6. The Bad Guys (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist

7. Inu-Oh (GKIDS) – GG

8. Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal Pictures/Illumination Entertainment) – BAFTA Longlist, PGA

9. Lightyear (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation) – BAFTA Longlist

10. My Father’s Dragon (Netflix) (-2)

Pinocchio won the Golden Globe and will continue to win every other Animated Feature award for the foreseeable future. The only real question is what that fifth nominee will be, as there’s no clear answer, with any potential picks all having something weighing them down – Wendell & Wild isn’t on the BAFTA longlist and isn’t a PGA nominee, The Bad Guys didn’t make PGA either and really should’ve as a populist pick, and Minions: The Rise of Gru may be too “mainstream.” I’ll stick with W&W for now and assume Netflix’s campaigning + Henry Selick’s name can push it through.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Fire of Love

1. Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/NEON) – CC, PGA, HCA, BAFTA Longlist (+1)

2. Navalny (Warner Bros.) – CC, PGA, BAFTA Longlist (-1)

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist

4. All That Breathes (Submarine Deluxe) – PGA, BAFTA Longlist

5. Descendant (Netflix) – CC, PGA

ALTERNATES:

6. Moonage Daydream (NEON) – CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

7. Bad Axe (IFC Films)

8. The Territory (National Geographic Documentary Films) – PGA

9. The Janes (HBO Documentary Films) – CC

10. Retrograde (National Geographic Documentary Films) – PGA

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is perhaps the most “acclaimed” title here – it did win the Golden Lion after all – but its failure to be nominated at the Critics Choice Awards or PGA makes me doubt its win potential. I think this trophy is between Fire of Love and Navalny, and I’ve gone back and forth between the two, but I believe Fire of Love can pull ahead by virtue of being the more enchanting experience – visually and emotionally – and director Sara Dosa making BAFTA’s Best Directing longlist really caught my attention. It might end up being the most accessible/enjoyable nominee, and that goes a long way in this category. Navalny is paced like a thriller and has modern political relevance, but Fire of Love feels like the more “magical” movie.


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

All Quiet on the Western Front

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – Germany – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

2. Decision to Leave (MUBI) – South Korea – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

3. Close (A24) – Belgium – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

4. Argentina, 1985 (Amazon Studios) – Argentina – GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA Longlist

5. EO (Sideshow) – Poland – BAFTA Longlist (+1)

ALTERNATES:

6. The Quiet Girl (Break Out Pictures) – Ireland – BAFTA Longlist (+2)

7. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) – Mexico – CC, BAFTA Longlist (-2)

8. Saint Omer (Super LTD) – France (-1)

9. Holy Spider (Utopia) – Denmark – BAFTA Longlist

10. Corsage (IFC Films) – Austria – BAFTA Longlist (NEW)

All Quiet remains at #1 as the likeliest Best Picture nominee of this bunch, while the rest of my predicted nominees remain the same, and Argentina, 1985 holds its placement after a surprise win at the Golden Globes. I do think Bardo is at risk of being snubbed though, and while I’m not 100% sure of its replacement, I’ve put EO in this week, as it has a small but passionate fanbase that could absolutely rally to push it through in the end.


WIN/NOMINATION TALLIES

  • The Banshees of Inisherin (1 win/9 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Graham Broadbent, Pete Czerin, and Martin McDonagh)
    • Best Director (Martin McDonagh)
    • Best Actor (Colin Farrell)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Brendan Gleeson)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Barry Keoghan)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Martin McDonagh)
    • Best Film Editing (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)
    • Best Original Score (Carter Burwell)
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once (4 wins/8 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, and Jonathan Wang)
    • Best Director (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
    • Best Actress (Michelle Yeoh)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Stephanie Hsu)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
    • Best Film Editing (Paul Rogers)
  • Elvis (4 wins/8 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, and Schuyler Weiss)
    • Best Actor (Austin Butler)
    • Best Cinematography (Mandy Walker)
    • Best Costume Design (Catherine Martin)
    • Best Film Editing (Jonathan Redmond and Matt Villa)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston, and Shane Thomas
    • Best Production Design (Bev Dunn, Catherine Martin, and Karen Murphy)
    • Best Sound (Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, and Wayne Pashley)
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (1 win/7 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Kevin Feige and Nate Moore)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Angela Bassett)
    • Best Costume Design (Ruth E. Carter)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Camille Friend and Joel Harlow)
    • Best Original Song (“Lift Me Up”)
    • Best Production Design (Hannah Beachler and Lisa Sessions Morgan)
    • Best Visual Effects (Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick, and Chris White)
  • All Quiet on the Western Front (1 win/7 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Malte Grunert)
    • Best Director (Edward Berger)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson, and Ian Stokell)
    • Best Cinematography (James Friend)
    • Best Production Design (Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper)
    • Best Sound (Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil, and Markus Stemler)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • Top Gun: Maverick (3 wins/6 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, David Ellison, and Christopher McQuarrie)
    • Best Cinematography (Claudio Miranda)
    • Best Film Editing (Eddie Hamilton)
    • Best Original Song (“Hold My Hand”)
    • Best Sound (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, and Mark Weingarten)
    • Best Visual Effects (Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Ryan Tudhope)
  • The Fabelmans (0 wins/6 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Kristie Macosko Krieger, Tony Kushner, and Steven Spielberg)
    • Best Director (Steven Spielberg)
    • Best Actress (Michelle Williams)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Paul Dano)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg)
    • Best Original Score (John Williams)
  • The Whale (1 win/5 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Darren Aronofsky, Jeremy Dawson, and Ari Handel)
    • Best Actor (Brendan Fraser)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Hong Chau)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Samuel D. Hunter)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, and Adrien Morot)
  • Avatar: The Way of Water (1 win/5 nominations)
    • Best Picture (James Cameron and Jon Landau)
    • Best Film Editing (David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, and Stephen Rivkin)
    • Best Production Design (Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole, and Ben Procter)
    • Best Sound (Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers, and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle)
    • Best Visual Effects (Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri, and Eric Saindon)
  • Babylon (1 win/4 nominations)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Brad Pitt)
    • Best Costume Design (Mary Zophres)
    • Best Original Score (Justin Hurwitz)
    • Best Production Design (Anthony Carlino and Florencia Martin)
  • TÁR (0 wins/4 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Todd Field, Scott Lambert, and Alexandra Milchan)
    • Best Director (Todd Field)
    • Best Actress (Cate Blanchett)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Todd Field)
  • The Batman (0 wins/4 nominations)
    • Best Cinematography (Greig Fraser)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Zoe Tahir)
    • Best Sound (William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson, and Stuart Wilson)
    • Best Visual Effects (Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon, and Dominic Tuohy)
  • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (1 win/3 nominations)
    • Best Animated Feature (Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Lisa Henson, and Gary Ungar)
    • Best Original Score (Alexandre Desplat)
    • Best Original Song (“Ciao Papa”)
  • Living (0 wins/2 nominations)
    • Best Actor (Bill Nighy)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Kazuo Ishiguro)
  • Blonde (0 wins/2 nominations)
    • Best Actress (Ana de Armas)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Tina Roesler Kerwin and Jaime Leigh McIntosh)
  • Women Talking (0 wins/2 nominations)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Sarah Polley)
    • Best Original Score (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
  • RRR (1 win/1 nomination)
    • Best Original Song (“Naatu Naatu”)
  • Aftersun (0 wins/1 nominations)
    • Best Actor (Paul Mescal)
  • Till (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Actress (Danielle Deadwyler)
  • Triangle of Sadness (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Ruben Östlund)
  • Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Rian Johnson)
  • Empire of Light (0 wins/1 nominations)
    • Best Cinematography (Roger Deakins)
  • The Woman King (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Costume Design (Gersha Phillips)
  • Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Costume Design (Jenny Beavan)
  • Tell It Like a Woman (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Original Song (“Applause”)
  • Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Visual Effects (Theo Bialek, Chris Corbould, Janek Sirrs, and Erik Winquist)
  • Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature (Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, and Paul Mezey)
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature (Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, Jordan Peele, Win Rosenfeld, and Henry Selick)
  • Turning Red (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature (Lindsey Collins and Domee Shi)
  • Wendell & Wild (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature (Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, Jordan Peele, Win Rosenfeld, and Henry Selick)
  • Fire of Love (1 win/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Navalny (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • All That Breathes (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Descendant (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Decision to Leave (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • Close (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • Argentina, 1985 (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • EO (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
Written by
Though Zoë Rose Bryant has only worked in film criticism for a little under three years - turning a collegiate passion into a full-time career by writing for outlets such as Next Best Picture and Awards Watch - her captivation with cinema has been a lifelong fascination, appreciating film in all its varying forms, from horror movies to heartfelt romantic comedies and everything in between. Born and raised in Omaha, Nebraska, she made the move to Los Angeles in 2021 after graduating college and now spends her days keeping tabs on all things pop culture and attempting to attend every screening under the sun. As a trans critic, she also seeks to champion underrepresented voices in the LGBTQ+ community in film criticism and offer original insight on how gender and sexuality are explored in modern entertainment. You can find Zoë on Twitter, Instagram, and Letterboxd at @ZoeRoseBryant.

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