Zoë’s 2023 Academy Awards Predictions – November 25th

Happy Friday, friends – and Happy (belated) Thanksgiving as well! As a bit of a holiday treat, we have a LOT to discuss this week, so let’s start right at the top with the biggest prize on Oscar night: Best Picture.

I feel pretty confident about 5-7 of my current predicted Best Picture nominees – Everything Everywhere All at OnceThe FabelmansWomen Talking (which I’ve even bumped up a spot this week, for reasons I’ll explain later), The Banshees of Inisherin, Babylon, Top Gun: Maverick, and TÁR – but my last three spots remain in flux. Will The Whale’s divisiveness ultimately hurt it here too (especially if Austin Butler or Colin Farrell overtake Brendan Fraser)? Will Avatar: The Way of Water solely be a crafts contender? Will She Said’s brutal box office returns tank its campaign?

Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan in She Said

Unfortunately, I believe I’ll be saying “yes” to that last question for the time being. I do think there’s hope for She Said to make a resurgence, as its a well-received contender that remains incredibly topical for industry voters, but the stink of that bad box office – and even harsher headlines – won’t do it any favors, nor will the fact that it simply doesn’t seem to be generating passion right now. It has its fair share of fans (including yours truly!), but I’m not sure it’ll have the adoration – and branch-by-branch support – to nab a Best Picture nod when all is said and done. So, what takes its place? Am I joining almost everyone else in the Oscar punditry world in finally putting Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio in my top ten? Not quite (though it does remain my #11, with She Said getting shoved down to #12, on account of the fact that I’ve only kept it in Adapted Screenplay at the moment). Nope, I’ve actually opted to elevate Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis, which is said to be playing incredibly well with Academy voters, and I’ve heard even more white-hot buzz for it behind-the-scenes.

And not just that, but this thing is going to kill with the guilds. We’ve known Austin Butler would be a top-tier Best Actor contender for a few months now (watch out Brendan Fraser – I’m serious), but it’s also quite high in Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, and Best Production Design too, and don’t overlook its strength in Best Film Editing or Best Sound either. Add all that up and… the math makes sense. I’ll keep it at #10 for now until we see how the rest of the race shakes out (Can Butler become the frontrunner? Does it actually start winning some crafts?) and if any other populist contender challenges it for its place (say, Glass Onion, which plays incredibly well – depending on what Netflix prioritizes in Picture). I also don’t think it’s totally the “second coming of Bohemian Rhapsody” quite yet (it’s not as “zeigeist-y,” nor did it have as helpful a release date) – though it certainly could be headed there.

Austin Butler in Elvis

The other major adjustment I’ve made to my predictions as a result of She Said‘s slip is selecting a new Best Supporting Actress frontrunner, which is now none other than Women Talking‘s Claire Foy. This category remains chaotic – and still somewhat wide-open – but Foy is dominating the conversation in a way no other contender is at the moment (constantly cited as a “showy standout” even amongst Women Talking‘s uniformly exceptional ensemble), and it’s clear she is her film’s priority in the category, as she’s been doing the lion’s share of the press with writer/director Sarah Polley thus far, and she’s listed above all her co-stars on the film’s FYC materials. Rather than being the Rachel Weisz to Jessie Buckley’s Emma Stone (where two Best Supporting Actress contenders from one film earn nominations but neither wins), she’s looking more and more like she could be the Melissa Leo/Octavia Spencer to Jessie Buckley’s Amy Adams/Jessica Chastain (where two Best Supporting Actress contenders from one film earn nominations but one is singled out and actually wins as well).

I still think there’s a path for The Banshees of Inisherin‘s Kerry Condon (though Foy’s name recognition and flashier role might keep her ahead), and I could see critics going to bat for Buckley and causing the Women Talking campaign to switch course later down the road, but I’ll stick with this for now, with The Whale‘s Hong Chau and… TÁR‘s Nina Hoss rounding out my predicted line-up. You might be wondering why I’ve excluded Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s Jamie Lee Curtis, who has quickly become her film’s Best Supporting Actress priority over Stephanie Hsu after Curtis started campaigning herself for a long-overdue Oscar nod (and the Indie Spirits already bought into it, nominating her over Hsu for their Best Supporting Performance award). I think Curtis will likely fare well with groups that put more of an emphasis on star power – the Golden Globes, Critics Choice (where they nominate everyone), and SAG – but I don’t see her doing as well at a ceremony like BAFTA, where only three nominations (of six) are decided by the entire Academy and the remaining half are selected by a jury.

I could see a world where Foy, Condon, and Buckley are the British Academy’s “saves,” and then the jury picks are more indie and diverse, such as Chau, Hoss, and maybe even Triangle of Sadness‘ Dolly de Leon. And given that our Academy tends to be more international than groups like the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG, I believe this could be our first sign that Curtis’ star power can only take her so far. It’s not that she gives a “bad” performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once by any means, but I think almost anyone can tell you that Stephanie Hsu clearly has the more substantial – and emotionally impactful – role for a supporting actress in that film, and I think that Curtis’ campaign is leaning too heavily on the “career coronation” angle right now. There has to be a bit more to it than that. And I just currently sense more individual passion for the performances I have above her, from Foy, Condon, Buckley, Chau, and yes, even Hoss (who already has nods from the Gotham Awards and Indie Spirits under her belt). Never say never – and I will have Curtis as my alternate – but I’m not buying it… yet.

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tying back into the “She Said slipping” theme, I’ve also lowered its placement in Best Adapted Screenplay, although I still have it listed for a nomination there, as I mentioned earlier. Women Talking is by far and away the frontrunner, and then I have The Whale at #2 and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery at #3 (these are honestly interchangeable, but since I have The Whale in Best Picture, I’ll give it the edge for now, unless Glass Onion gets in too) and She Said at #4. However, the more interesting discussion is what I now have at #5. For awhile, it’s been Noah Baumbach’s White Noise as, in this open year (with competition that… isn’t the strongest), I had a feeling we could get a lone nominee from an unconventional indie that stirs up some pockets of passion in the writers’ branch. However, the heat just doesn’t seem to be there for White Noise – and Baumbach, with only two noms to his name in the writing categories, isn’t a PTA who can still pull off an Inherent Vice-esque nod for a title this divisive. Instead, I’m mulling over moving Bones and All into its place. I know, I know. “The cannibal movie?” Well, believe it – and no, I’m not just saying that because it’s my personal favorite film of the year either.

Bones and All has actually set the indie and cinephile world on fire and has been widely acclaimed for quite a few months now, and it seems to have transcended its YA/genre trappings to be genuinely taken seriously by the industry’s “intelligentsia” and respected for both its genre blending and sharp social commentary (which was added to this adaptation). Additionally, Bones and All actually appears to be MGM/UAR’s second major awards priority this year behind Women Talking and… ahead of Till. And while that sentence might be shocking to read on its own, it makes more sense when you break it down: Till is truly only strongly contending for Best Actress, whereas Bones and All has a shot in Adapted Screenplay, can likely land on the shortlists for Best Original Score and Best Original Song, and might even be able to nab one or two major nods for Gotham Awards/Indie Spirit nominee Mark Rylance in Best Supporting Actor (Say, at SAG or BAFTA? The two most theatrically-based voting bodies that respect him in almost anything and everything?). This is not to say Bones and All – and MGM/UAR – doesn’t have its work cut out for itself trying to convince most voters to give the R-rated cannibal romance a try, but at the very least, I could see them getting enough writers on board for a fifth place spot in Best Adapted Screenplay in a field this dry, for a film this feverishly adored.

Taylor Russell and Timothée Chalamet in Bones and All

Other odds and ends this week:

  • Just last week, I dropped Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle to #5 in Best Director as, while I do think Babylon could be a divisive contender in certain categories, I still felt that the directors branch might admire the sheer ambition of this story even if other branches didn’t. However, I think I will be subbing him out this week for Decision to Leave‘s Park Chan-wook, giving me a line-up of Steven Spielberg (the frontrunner), Daniels (the runner-up), Sarah Polley, Todd Field, and him. I think Chazelle should do well with precursors (I see DGA going for Spielberg, Daniels, Polley, Chazelle, and McDonagh – my Best Picture top five), but with how indie and international The Academy’s directors’ branch has trended as of late, it just kills me to keep Park out, especially since I have his film winning International Feature right now. He fits the recent trends too well for me to justify still forcing him to be on the outside looking in – and we can’t deny that Babylon has taken a bit of a hit recently.
  • Thanks to its blistering buzz and semi-strong box office, I have added Mark Mylod’s The Menu to my Best Original Screenplay predictions in seventh place, right behind Babylon as my second alternate. I think Searchlight could have its hands full with The Banshees of Inisherin here, but let’s see if The Menu can make it in at WGA, where a few top contenders could be ineligible.
  • Disney’s Strange World is unfortunately a critical and commercial whiff, so I’ve dropped it to the bottom of my Best Animated Feature rankings, and in its place, I’ve put Henry Selick’s Wendell & Wild. While it didn’t receive rave reviews, Selick is supremely respected in animation, and Keegan-Michael Key and Jordan Peele are also big draws. Could Netflix have its hands full with Guillermo Del Toro‘s Pinocchio and My Father’s Dragon? Perhaps. But Pinocchio is so far out front at this point that they needn’t worry about that one, and Dragon should have some automatic love simply for being the latest offering from the Oscar-adored Cartoon Saloon. Either way, expect to see some more adjustments in this category in the coming weeks – there’s definitely space for a surprise.

BEST PICTURE

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

3. Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (+1)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (-1)

5. Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

6. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

7. TÁR (Focus Features)

8. The Whale (A24)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

10. Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+5)

ALTERNATES:

11. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

12. She Said (Universal Pictures) (-2)

13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) (+3)

14. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) (-2)

15. Aftersun (A24) (-2)

16. Decision to Leave (MUBI)

17. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

18. The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)

19. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

20. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)


BEST DIRECTOR

Steven Spielberg directing The Fabelmans

1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

2. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

3. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (+1)

4. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) (-1)

5. Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI) (+1)

ALTERNATES:

6. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-1)

7. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

8. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

9. Alejandro González Iñárritu – BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)

10. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)


BEST ACTOR

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24)

2. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+1)

3. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (-1)

4. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)

5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) (+2)

ALTERNATES:

6. Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

7. Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-2)

8. Hugh Jackman – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)

9. Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

10. Adam Sandler – Hustle (Netflix)


BEST ACTRESS

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features)

3. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

4. Margot Robbie – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

5. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (UAR/Orion)

ALTERNATES:

6. Olivia Colman – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

7. Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony Pictures Releasing)

8. Viola Davis – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)

9. Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Searchlight Pictures)

10. Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway (Apple TV+)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

3. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

4. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

ALTERNATES:

6. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

7. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

8. Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix) (NEW)

9. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple TV+)

10. Mark Rylance – Bones and All (MGM/UAR) (NEW)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Claire Foy in Women Talking

1. Claire Foy – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (+4)

2. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (+2)

3. Jessie Buckley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (-1)

4. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) (-1)

5. Nina Hoss – TÁR (Focus Features) (+1)

ALTERNATES:

6. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) (+2)

7. Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures) (-6)

8. Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) (-1)

9. Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) (+1)

10. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) (-1)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, and Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) (+1)

3. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (-1)

4. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features)

5. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)

ALTERNATES:

6. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

7. Seth Reiss and Will Tracy – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures) (NEW)

8. Charlotte Wells – Aftersun (A24) (-1)

9. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI) (-1)

10. James Gray – Armageddon Time (Focus Features) (-1)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The cast of Women Talking

1. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

2. Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale (A24) (+1)

3. Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) (+1)

4. Rebecca Lenkiewicz – She Said (Universal Pictures) (-2)

5. David Kajganich – Bones and All (MGM/UAR) (+5)

ALTERNATES:

6. Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix) (-1)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Patrick McHale, and Matthew Robbins – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) (-1)

8. Kazuo Ishiguro – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)

9. Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) (-2)

10. Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson, and Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) (-1)


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Avatar: The Way of Water

1. Russell Carpenter – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

2. Linus Sandgren – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

3. Janusz Kamiński – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

4. Darius Khondji – BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) (+1)

5. Roger Deakins – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) (-1)

ALTERNATES:

6. James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

7. Greig Fraser – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

8. Claudio Miranda – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

9. Ben Davis – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

10. Robert Richardson – Emancipation (Apple TV+) (NEW)


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Diego Calva and Jean Smart in Babylon

1. Mary Zophres – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

2. Catherine Martin – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

3. Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

4. Mark Bridges – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. Gersha Phillips – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)

ALTERNATES:

6. Jenny Beavan – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features)

7. Shirley Kurata – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

8. Sandy Powell – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)

9. Quita Alfred Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (NEW)

10. Alexandra Byrne – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) (-1)


BEST FILM EDITING

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

3. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) (+1)

4. Tom Cross – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (-1)

5. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+1)

ALTERNATES:

6. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, and Stephen E. Rivkin – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) (-1)

7. Christopher Donaldson and Roslyn Kalloo – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (+1)

8. Bob Ducsay – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) (+1)

9. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (+1)

10. Sven Budelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) (-3)


BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

1. Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, and Adrien Morot – The Whale (A24)

2. Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston, and Shane Thomas – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

3. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Zoe Tahir – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

4. TBD – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

5. Jaime Leigh McIntosh and Heba Thorisdottir – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

ALTERNATES:

6. Louisa V. Anthony, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Babalwa Mtshiselwa, and Jamika Wilson – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) (+3)

7. TBD – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) (-1)

8. TBD – Blonde (Netflix) (-1)

9. Sarah Rubano – X (A24) (-1)

10. TBD – Thor: Love and Thunder (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Justin Hurwitz – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

2. Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

3. Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

4. John Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (+2)

ALTERNATES:

6. Simon Franglen – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) (-1)

7. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) (-1)

8. Michael Giacchino – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

9. Danny Elfman – White Noise (Netflix) (+1)

10. Volker Bertelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) (-1)


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

2. “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

3. “Naatu Naatu” – RRR (Sarigama Cinemas)

4. “Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

5. “Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman (Samuel Goldwyn Films)

ALTERNATES:

6. “Song Chord” – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

7. “Nobody Like U” – Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation)

8. “New Body Rhumba” – White Noise (Netflix)

9. “This Is A Life” – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

10. “(You Made It Feel Like) Home” – Bones and All (UAR/Orion) (NEW)


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Margot Robbie and the cast of Babylon in Babylon

1. Florencia Martin (Production Design) and Anthony Carlino (Set Decoration) – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

2. Catherine Martin (Production Design) and Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration) – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+3)

3. Hannah Beachler (Production Design) and Lisa K. Sessions (Set Decoration) – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

4. Rick Carter (Production Design) and Karen O’Hara (Set Decoration) – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (Production Design) and Vanessa Cole (Set Decoration) – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) (-3)

ALTERNATES:

6. TBD (Production Design) and TBD (Set Decoration) – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

7. Christian M. Goldbeck (Production Design) and Ernestine Hipper (Set Decoration) – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

8. Akin McKenzie (Production Design) and TBD (Set Decoration) – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)

9. Mark Tildesley (Production Design) and Patricia Cuccia (Set Decoration) – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

10. Rick Heinrichs (Production Design) and Elli Griff (Set Decoration) – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)


BEST SOUND

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

1. Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, and Mark Weingarten – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

2. TBD – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

3. TBD – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

4. William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson, and Stuart Wilson – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

5. Ian Chase, Alexandra Fehrman, Brent Kiser, Stephen Nelson, and Andrew Twite – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

ALTERNATES:

6. Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, and Wayne Pashley – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

7. Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Steven Morrow, and Andy Nelson – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

8. Brian Chumney, Ronald Judkins, Andy Nelson, and Gary Rydstrom – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

9. Paul “Salty” Brincat, Chris Burdon, William Miller, Oliver Tarney, and Rachael Tate – Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios/MGM)

10. TBD – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Sam Worthington as Jake Sully in Avatar: The Way of Water

1. TBD – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

2. Benjamin Brewer, Jeff Desom, Ethan Feldbau, and Zak Stoltz – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

3. Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Ryan Tudhope – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

4. TBD – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

5. Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon, and Dominic Tuohy – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

ALTERNATES:

6. TBD – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

7. TBD – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

8. Ivan Busquets, Marko Chulev, Abishek Nair, and Steven Nichols – Good Night Oppy (MGM/UAR)

9. Scott R. Fisher, Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, and Sreejith Venugopalan – Nope (Universal Pictures)

10. TBD – Thor: Love and Thunder (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

2. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation)

3. My Father’s Dragon (Netflix)

4. Wendell & Wild (Netflix) (+5)

5. The Bad Guys (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation)

ALTERNATES:

6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)

7. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation)

8. Lightyear (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation)

9. Strange World (Walt Disney/Walt Disney Animation) (-5)

10. Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood (Netflix)


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Good Night Oppy

1. Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios)

2. Navalny (Warner Bros.)

3. Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/NEON)

4. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON)

5. Descendant (Netflix)

ALTERNATES:

6. All that Breathes (Submarine Deluxe) (+2)

7. Moonage Daydream (NEON) (-1)

8. The Territory (National Geographic Documentary Films) (+1)

9. Sr. (Netflix) (-2)

10. Sidney (Apple TV+)


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Park Hae-il and Tang Wei in Decision to Leave

1. Decision to Leave (MUBI) – South Korea

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – Germany

3. BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) – Mexico

4. Close (A24) – Belgium

5. Saint Omer (TBD) – France

ALTERNATES:

6. Joyland (Film Constellation) – Pakistan

7. EO (TBD) – Poland (+3)

8. Klondike (TBD) – Ukraine (-1)

9. Holy Spider (Utopia) – Denmark (-1)

10. Argentina, 1985 (Amazon Studios) – Argentina (-1)


WIN/NOMINATION TALLIES

  • The Fabelmans (1 win/11 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Kristie Macosko Krieger, Tony Kushner, and Steven Spielberg)
    • Best Director (Steven Spielberg)
    • Best Actress (Michelle Williams)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Paul Dano)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Judd Hirsch)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg)
    • Best Cinematography (Janusz Kamiński)
    • Best Costume Design (Mark Bridges)
    • Best Film Editing (Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn)
    • Best Original Score (John Williams)
    • Best Production Design (Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara)
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once (5 wins/8 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, and Jonathan Wang)
    • Best Director (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
    • Best Actress (Michelle Yeoh)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
    • Best Film Editing (Paul Rogers)
    • Best Sound (Ian Chase, Alexandra Fehrman, Brent Kiser, Stephen Nelson, and Andrew Twite)
    • Best Visual Effects (Benjamin Brewer, Jeff Desom, Ethan Feldbau, and Zak Stoltz)
  • Babylon (3 wins/8 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Olivia Hamilton, Marc Platt, and Matthew Plouffe)
    • Best Actress (Margot Robbie)
    • Best Cinematography (Linus Sandgren)
    • Best Costume Design (Mary Zophres)
    • Best Film Editing (Tom Cross)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Jaime Leigh McIntosh and Heba Thorisdottir)
    • Best Original Score (Justin Hurwitz)
    • Best Production Design (Anthony Carlino and Florencia Martin)
  • The Banshees of Inisherin (0 wins/7 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Graham Broadbent, Pete Czerin, and Martin McDonagh)
    • Best Actor (Colin Farrell)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Brendan Gleeson)
    • Best Supporting Actor (Barry Keoghan)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Martin McDonagh)
    • Best Original Score (Carter Burwell)
  • Women Talking (2 wins/6 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Frances McDormand)
    • Best Director (Sarah Polley)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Jessie Buckley)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Claire Foy)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Sarah Polley)
    • Best Original Score (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
  • Elvis (0 wins/6 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, and Schuyler Weiss)
    • Best Actor (Austin Butler)
    • Best Costume Design (Catherine Martin)
    • Best Film Editing (Jonathan Redmond and Matt Villa)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston, and Shane Thomas
    • Best Production Design (Bev Dunn, Catherine Martin, and Karen Murphy)
  • The Whale (2 wins/5 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Darren Aronofsky, Jeremy Dawson, and Ari Handel)
    • Best Actor (Brendan Fraser)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Hong Chau)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Samuel D. Hunter)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, and Adrien Morot)
  • Avatar: The Way of Water (2 wins/5 nominations)
    • Best Picture (James Cameron and Jon Landau)
    • Best Cinematography (Russell Carpenter)
    • Best Production Design (Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole, and Ben Procter)
    • Best Sound (TBD)
    • Best Visual Effects (TBD)
  • Top Gun: Maverick (1 win/5 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, David Ellison, and Christopher McQuarrie)
    • Best Film Editing (Eddie Hamilton)
    • Best Original Song (“Hold My Hand”)
    • Best Sound (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, and Mark Weingarten)
    • Best Visual Effects (Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Ryan Tudhope)
  • TÁR (0 wins/5 nominations)
    • Best Picture (Todd Field, Scott Lambert, and Alexandra Milchan)
    • Best Director (Todd Field)
    • Best Actress (Cate Blanchett)
    • Best Supporting Actress (Nina Hoss)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Todd Field)
  • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (1 win/4 nominations)
    • Best Animated Feature (Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Lisa Henson, and Gary Ungar)
    • Best Original Score (Alexandre Desplat)
    • Best Original Song (“Ciao Papa”)
    • Best Visual Effects (TBD)
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (1 win/4 nominations)
    • Best Costume Design (Ruth E. Carter)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (TBD)
    • Best Original Song (“Lift Me Up”)
    • Best Production Design (TBD)
  • The Batman (0 wins/3 nominations)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Zoe Tahir)
    • Best Sound (William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson, and Stuart Wilson)
    • Best Visual Effects (Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon, and Dominic Tuohy)
  • Decision to Leave (1 win/2 nominations)
    • Best Director (Park Chan-wook)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (0 wins/2 nominations)
    • Best Cinematography (Darius Khondji)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • All Quiet on the Western Front (0 wins/2 nominations)
    • Best International Feature Film
    • Best Sound (TBD)
  • Living (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Actor (Bill Nighy)
  • Till (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Actress (Danielle Deadwyler)
  • Triangle of Sadness (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Original Screenplay (Ruben Östlund)
  • Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Rian Johnson)
  • She Said (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
  • Bones and All (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay (David Kajganich)
  • Empire of Light (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Cinematography (Roger Deakins)
  • The Woman King (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Costume Design (Gersha Phillips)
  • RRR (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Original Song (“Naatu Naatu”)
  • Tell It Like a Woman (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Original Song (“Applause”)
  • Turning Red (0 wins/2 nominations)
    • Best Animated Feature (Lindsey Collins and Domee Shi)
  • My Father’s Dragon (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature (Bonnie Curtis, Julie Lynn, Nora Twomey, and Paul Young)
  • Wendell & Wild (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature (Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, Jordan Peele, Win Rosenfeld, and Henry Selick)
  • The Bad Guys (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature (Rebecca Huntley, Pierre Perifel, and Damon Ross)
  • Good Night Oppy (1 win/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Navalny (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Fire of Love (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Descendant (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Close (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • Saint Omer (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
Written by
Though Zoë Rose Bryant has only worked in film criticism for a little under three years - turning a collegiate passion into a full-time career by writing for outlets such as Next Best Picture and Awards Watch - her captivation with cinema has been a lifelong fascination, appreciating film in all its varying forms, from horror movies to heartfelt romantic comedies and everything in between. Born and raised in Omaha, Nebraska, she made the move to Los Angeles in 2021 after graduating college and now spends her days keeping tabs on all things pop culture and attempting to attend every screening under the sun. As a trans critic, she also seeks to champion underrepresented voices in the LGBTQ+ community in film criticism and offer original insight on how gender and sexuality are explored in modern entertainment. You can find Zoë on Twitter, Instagram, and Letterboxd at @ZoeRoseBryant.

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