Now that we’ve gotten the 2023 Golden Globe Awards television predictions out of the way – and now that the 80th Golden Globes are literally only one day away – there’s no better time than the present to dig into the film categories at long last, discussing which films will come out on top from this latest crop of contenders, which include TÁR, Top Gun: Maverick, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, and… Everything Everywhere All at Once in between. Given how much time we spend talking about these races day in and day out, it can feel like certain categories are already done deals. But these are the Globes we’re talking about – nothing is ever set in stone. I had to make some close calls below (and there was even the occasional line-up where I literally had no idea who would win), but I feel fairly good about where my predictions are at right now, so… let’s get into it!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Truth be told, I can kind of see a world where any one of these five films ends up taking home the Best Motion Picture – Drama trophy, and it’s been near impossible to settle on a selection. However, ultimately, I do think this is a three-horse-race between The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, and Elvis, and though The Fabelmans has been the consensus frontrunner for Best Picture for much of the season, it’s lost considerable steam as of late. So while I was initially inclined to go with it, I’m turning towards Top Gun and Elvis now. Of these two, I know many are going with the former – especially as they start to see a path for it to take Best Picture at the Oscars as well – but I’m going to Choose Chaos™ and pick Elvis. Some will say it’s too convenient to predict Bohemian Rhapsody 2.0, but let’s be honest – that’s exactly what Elvis has been this whole season! A big bombastic musical biopic hit with a show-stopping lead performance that’s become a bit of a frontrunner itself, and hey, Elvis even managed one more nom here than Boho got back in the day, with Baz Luhrmann shortlisted for Best Director. I’m not confident about this choice, but given how much we’ve underestimated Elvis all year long and how it continues to prove its passion every single day, I don’t think I’m completely crazy either, so let’s just go with it.
Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Triangle of Sadness
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
It’s pretty clear that this is between Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin (the latter of which was the nomination leader at this year’s Golden Globes with eight nods total, followed immediately by the former, which picked up six), and if you’re going with Banshees, I can’t fault ya. They clearly liked it a lot, and the international style and artistry of the film is very much up the HFPA’s alley. However, I do get the gut feeling that EEAAO is The Moment™ right now, and that the Globes will want to take part in that and be the first ceremony to give that cast and crew a crowdpleasing celebration together on a televised stage (and again, it essentially maxed out its potential nominations too). Banshees absolutely won’t go home empty handed – more on that below – but when it comes to the top honor, I think EEAAO is narrowly edging ahead.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Austin Butler – Elvis
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Hugh Jackman – The Son
Bill Nighy – Living
Jeremy Pope – The Inspection
Will Win: Austin Butler – Elvis
Could Win: Brendan Fraser – The Whale
If I’m going with Elvis in Best Motion Picture – Drama, I kind of have to have Austin Butler as my Best Actor – Drama pick, but I would’ve done so anyway, to be honest. Elvis had probably its best day nomination-wise, and this is the definition of an “awardsy” lead actor performance that the HFPA in particular always tend to respond to – a “Transformation-with-a-capital-T” in a (here it is again) bombastic musical biopic. There is an opening for The Whale‘s Brendan Fraser, as he’s got a helluva narrative, and of course, there’s his painful past with the HFPA as well, which voters may want to rectify (even though he won’t be at the ceremony), but I still think Austin is out ahead.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Cate Blanchett – TÁR
Olivia Colman – Empire of Light
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Will Win: Cate Blanchett – TÁR
Could Win: Ana de Armas – Blonde
Cate Blanchett is coming into the ceremony with the luxury of being The Frontrunner™ in most circles, but that doesn’t mean she’s unchallenged entirely. TÁR did do quite well here, despite Todd Field missing a Best Director nomination, though there are some who remain convinced that The Fabelmans‘ Michelle Williams will be the Best Actress contender most accessible for the industry. However, I’d also keep my eye on Blonde‘s Ana de Armas. What seemed like a fluke nomination at first – “Globes gonna Globe” – has looked more like the real deal in recent days, especially after de Armas showed up on BAFTAs’ Best Actress shortlist over some bigger names. For now, I think the nomination is the win. But stranger things have happened…
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Diego Calva – Babylon
Daniel Craig – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Adam Driver – White Noise
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes – The Menu
Will Win: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Could Win: Daniel Craig – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
We’ve had Colin Farrell lined up to win his second Golden Globe (and his second for a Martin McDonagh comedy) pretty much all year long, and nothing has changed my mind on that front – especially as he becomes more and more of a challenger for the Best Actor Oscar with every passing day. Daniel Craig and Diego Calva are the only two other nominees that come from Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical nominees, and Craig would probably be Farrell’s only real “competition” as the bigger name and former nominee. But even then, he won’t make Colin sweat all that much.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Lesley Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Margot Robbie – Babylon
Anya Taylor-Joy – The Menu
Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Margot Robbie – Babylon
This Comedy/Musical category is also coming down to the only nominees that hail from films that made it into the respective Motion Picture category, but, honestly, Michelle Yeoh is probably gonna win this in a walk anyway. It’s “her year,” she remains Cate Blanchett’s closest competition for the Oscar, and if Everything Everywhere All at Once is having a good night (as almost everyone is predicting), there’s no way the face of that film won’t be included in its win haul.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt – Babylon
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Another easy one. Ke Huy Quan has swept essentially every Best Supporting Actor award known to man so far this season, and even though the two Banshees boys have joined him in almost every Best Supporting Actor line-up so far, neither have been able to match his momentum – or that undeniable comeback narrative. Quan’s already good as gold(en globe).
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness
Carey Mulligan – She Said
Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Whew. Now that we got a few easy ones out of the way, it’s time to tackle perhaps the trickiest category to call of all: Best Supporting Actress. Not only is there no clear consensus in the industry in this category at the moment, but I also think that four of these nominees have near equal chances of winning (She Said‘s Carey Mulligan is the odd woman out, as she’s the only contender who is her film’s only nomination). My gut tells me it’ll come down to the two veterans – Bassett and Curtis (the latter of whom is an HFPA favorite, which could give her an edge) – but Kerry Condon is closing in on the win as well (especially as many rally behind her for the Oscar, though she doesn’t need the Globe for that to happen for her), and Dolly de Leon continues to earn deafening raves from anyone and everyone who has seen her triumphant work in Triangle of Sadness (a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical nominee). I’ll call it for Curtis for now, even though giving EEAAO five wins make me a little uneasy, but I view this more as a win for JLC than a win for the film – she’s got a lot of love, and I can see voters wanting to give her this moment.
Best Director
James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Baz Luhrmann – Elvis
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Baz Luhrmann – Elvis
A few weeks ago, conventional wisdom would’ve said Steven Spielberg was the easy favorite in the Best Director race. However, a lot has changed in those few weeks, as The Fabelmans continues to fall and other contenders with far more passion climb above it in the Oscar rankings. Now, especially since I don’t have The Fabelmans winning Best Motion Picture – Drama, Spielberg isn’t my first or second prediction for this award. Instead, I’m going back-and-forth between the auteurs who helmed my predicted Drama and Comedy/Musical winners – Daniels and Baz Luhrmann. On the heels of the domination in the critics awards, I’ll err on the side of Daniels for now, but I would not be surprised at ALL if Luhrmann pulls this one out.
Best Screenplay
Todd Field – TÁR
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans
Will Win: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Could Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
This race is clearly between Banshees and EEAAO in my opinion, but since I’m already predicting EEAAO to win Director, I’ll spread the love (and Banshees just makes far more sense as a Screenplay winner anyway, especially considering what’s won in this category in recent years, including Martin McDonagh’s own Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). Banshees remains win-competitive in Comedy/Musical and Supporting Actress too, but it’s this category and Actor in a Comedy/Musical that I’m almost entirely confident it’s taking.
Best Original Score
Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking
Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
John Williams – The Fabelmans
Will Win: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
Could Win: Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Based on the material here alone, Babylon should be the frontrunner – it’s The Most Score™ of these nominees – but with the film floundering elsewhere lately (with critics, at the box office, and on and on and on), can it be counted on to still pull out this win? The Globes were higher on the film than most, giving it five nominations, but it’s far from a sure thing to take home this trophy. It’s tough to say what its main competition is though, as almost all these nominees have a near-equal level of advantages and drawbacks. I’ll say Alexandre Desplat, by virtue of being the next biggest name with the next showiest score (though some would say John Williams, and I could see that as well, even if The Fabelmans‘ score is a little sparse).
Best Original Song
“Carolina” – Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” – RRR
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR
Could Win: “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
I think this is coming down to “Hold My Hand” vs. “Naatu Naatu” – just as I suspect the Oscar race is as well – but I think the international makeup of the HFPA’s voting body will have them trend towards “Naatu Naatu” instead (it helps that RRR is also a Best-Non English Language Film nominee, and hey, it has just as many nominations as Top Gun, with each earning two a piece). “Hold My Hand” is a great song, but – and I’m primarily going off my gut here, so I could be wrong – it feels like “Naatu Naatu” is more singular and special. And is there an impetus to give Lady Gaga another win in this category so soon after her first? She might still win the Oscar, but I think the Globes will go their own way.
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Inu-Oh
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Could Win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Pinocchio has been the central focus of this category almost all year long, and here’s where its sweep of the industry awards will starts. Puss in Boots and Turning Red are incredibly well received populist pictures, while Marcel was an imaginative indie hit, but Pinocchio checks all the boxes, as it’s equal parts entertaining and artful. It helps too that it’s the only nominee here with more than one nomination (three in fact, with additional nods in Best Original Score and Best Original Song).
Best Non-English Language Film
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
Decision to Leave
RRR
Will Win: RRR
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
All Quiet on the Western Front remains the frontrunner for this category at the Oscars, but that’s partially because RRR is ineligible, since India selected another film to represent their country over it. Since RRR is here, is the only film to have a nomination outside of this category, and was such a global phenomenon this year, I think it’ll take this trophy home.
