Zoë’s Emmy Predictions – August 12th

This has been one of the most eventful weeks since the announcement of the Emmy nominations as, last Saturday, the TCA (Television Critics Association) Award winners were revealed, and Abbott Elementary swept with four wins – Program of the Year, Outstanding New Program, Outstanding Achievement in Comedy, and Individual Achievement in Comedy (for creator, executive producer, writer, and star Quinta Brunson) – becoming the only show to win more than one award, after already being the most nominated show of the ceremony. Meanwhile, Succession expectedly won Outstanding Achievement in Drama, the maddeningly non-Emmy nominated Mandy Moore won Individual Achievement in Drama for This Is Us, and Dopesick won Outstanding Achievement in Movies, Miniseries, or Specials (where the Emmy frontrunner The White Lotus wasn’t nominated).

Now, the TCA Awards aren’t always 1:1 with the Emmys, but they are a very valuable precursor, and as you’ll see below, these results have helped strengthen certain frontrunners (Succession, for one) and make other races even harder to predict (Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series could be a real nail-biter). In addition, current shows that are still airing – even if these specific seasons aren’t Emmy-eligible this year – are seeing their popularity rise (Better Call Saul), which could boost their chances in several categories. And so, without further ado, let’s dig in and see where the key Emmy races stand at the end of this week.

DRAMA SERIES

Outstanding Drama Series

1. Succession
2. Severance
3. Squid Game
4. Better Call Saul
5. Yellowjackets
6. Ozark
7. Euphoria
8. Stranger Things

Succession has been the frontrunner for quite a few months now, and while Severance and Squid Game are compelling competitors, Succession‘s TCA victory suggests that what we’ve known for awhile hasn’t changed – this is one of the (if not the) most beloved shows on television right now, and it’s still at the height of its popularity. If it doesn’t win again, it’d be a massive upset.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

1. Lee Jung-jae – Squid Game
2. Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
3. Jeremy Strong – Succession
4. Brian Cox – Succession
5. Jason Bateman – Ozark
6. Adam Scott – Severance

I still think this is the best place to award Squid Game – particularly after Lee Jung-jae’s SAG win – but I can’t deny that Better Call Saul‘s Bob Odenkirk could get a finale bump, especially as it continues to be one of the most talked-about shows on television right now, even if these current episodes won’t actually be Emmy eligible until next year. Look at what happened with Ted Lasso last year – it was already an immensely popular show, but when it began airing its second season during the voting periods for the nominations and winners of the 73rd Primetime Emmy Awards, it kept itself in the conversation in a major way and kept reminding people how much they loved it. Sure, voters could opt to give Odenkirk a “finale Emmy” next year, when these final episodes are actually what he’ll be nominated for, but if they’re riding high on Better Call Saul love, why wait?

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

1. Zendaya – Euphoria
2. Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets
3. Laura Linney – Ozark
4. Jodie Comer – Killing Eve
5. Sandra Oh – Killing Eve
6. Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

1. Matthew Macfadyen – Succession
2. Kieran Culkin – Succession
3. Oh Young-soo – Squid Game
4. John Turturro – Severance
5. Christopher Walken – Severance
6. Nicholas Braun – Succession
7. Park Hae-soo – Squid Game
8. Billy Crudup – The Morning Show

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

1. Julia Garner – Ozark
2. Sydney Sweeney – Euphoria
3. Sarah Snook – Succession
4. Jung Ho-yeon – Squid Game
5. Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul
6. Christina Ricci – Yellowjackets
7. Patricia Arquette – Severance
8. J. Smith-Cameron – Succession

I can’t quite switch to Sydney Sweeney yet – despite going in-depth on why I believe she could be the next surprise acting win for Euphoria earlier this week – mostly because I think this will be the only major win for the final season of Ozark, and I feel that Julia Garner’s final performance as Ruth Langmore is something special that voters will still want to award. But I’m keeping my eye on Sweeney, as there’s certainly considerable passion for her performance as well, and since Garner has already won twice (for this same role), I wouldn’t be surprised to see them spread the love.

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series

1. Colman Domingo – Euphoria
2. Alexander Skarsgård – Succession
3. Tom Pelphrey – Ozark
4. Adrien Brody – Succession
5. James Cromwell – Succession
6. Arian Moayed – Succession

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series

1. Harriet Walter – Succession
2. Lee Yoo-mi – Squid Game
3. Martha Kelly – Euphoria
4. Marcia Gay Harden – The Morning Show
5. Hope Davis – Succession
6. Sanaa Lathan – Succession

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

1. Ben Stiller – Severance (“The We We Are”)
2. Hwang Dong-hyuk – Squid Game (“Red Light, Green Light”)
3. Mark Mylod – Succession (“All the Bells Say”)
4. Karyn Kusama – Yellowjackets (“Pilot”)
5. Jason Bateman – Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”)
6. Lorene Scafaria – Succession (“Too Much Birthday”)
7. Cathy Yan – Succession (“The Disruption”)

I’m still sticking with Ben Stiller Severance for now – I think there’s too much love for the show for it go home Emmy-less, and I’m already predicting Squid Game to get its due in Drama Actor – but I can’t deny that Hwang Dong-hyuk can easily take this too, and in some ways, his “bigger” direction may be too audacious to overlook.

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

1. Jesse Armstrong – Succession (“All the Bells Say”)
2. Dan Erickson – Severance (“The We We Are”)
3. Thomas Schnauz – Better Call Saul (“Plan and Execution”)
4. Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson – Yellowjackets (“Pilot”)
5. Chris Mundy – Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”)
6. Hwang Dong-hyuk – Squid Game (“One Lucky Day”)
7. Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle, and Bart Nickerson – Yellowjackets (“F Sharp”)

COMEDY SERIES

Outstanding Comedy Series

1. Abbott Elementary
2. Ted Lasso
3. Hacks
4. Barry
5. Only Murders in the Building
6. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
7. What We Do in the Shadows
8. Curb Your Enthusiasm

I’ve been on the Abbott Elementary train since the start of my predictions, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. The love for the show only continues to grow every week (as evidenced by its TCA Awards sweep), and it’s that underdog that everybody loves to root for – a surprise word-of-mouth-driven smash hit that didn’t come from a streaming service with a surplus of cash to spend but instead earned its Emmy nods through passion for the show alone. Abbott also scratches that “feel-good” itch (something that helped Ted Lasso last year), and it being the “hot new thing” could help it stand out against shows in their second or third seasons that are still going strong, but feel “expectedly excellent” at this point instead of being the surprise that sneaks up on you, as Abbott did.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

1. Bill Hader – Barry
2. Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso
3. Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building
4. Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building
5. Donald Glover – Atlanta
6. Nicholas Hoult – The Great

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

1. Jean Smart – Hacks
2. Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
3. Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
4. Issa Rae – Insecure
5. Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant
6. Elle Fanning – The Great

Since 2017, every winner of the Individual Achievement in Comedy award at the TCA Awards has gone on to win the Emmy in their respective category (Atlanta‘s Donald Glover in 2017, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel‘s Rachel Brosnahan in 2018, Fleabag‘s Phoebe Waller-Bridge in 2019, Schitt’s Creek‘s Catherine O’Hara in 2020, and Hacks‘ Jean Smart in 2021) – which makes Quinta Brunson’s victory over supposed Emmy frontrunner Jean Smart very interesting. I don’t believe stats are iron-clad by any means, but when you pair this development with the continually growing popularity for Abbott Elementary overall, it seems to suggest that Brunson is a closer competitor to Smart than we initially thought. I’ll stick with Smart for now – especially since this is the only major win I’m predicting for the still-very-strong Hacks – but don’t count Brunson out.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

1. Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso
2. Henry Winkler – Barry
3. Anthony Carrigan – Barry
4. Nick Mohammed – Ted Lasso
5. Toheeb Jimoh – Ted Lasso
6. Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
7. Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary
8. Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

1. Janelle James – Abbott Elementary
2. Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso
3. Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary
4. Hannah Einbinder – Hacks
5. Sarah Niles – Ted Lasso
6. Juno Temple – Ted Lasso
7. Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
8. Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

1. Nathan Lane – Only Murders in the Building
2. Jerrod Carmichael – Saturday Night Live
3. Bill Hader – Curb Your Enthusiasm
4. Christopher McDonald – Hacks
5. Sam Richardson – Ted Lasso
6. James Lance – Ted Lasso

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

1. Jane Lynch – Only Murders in the Building
2. Laurie Metcalf – Hacks
3. Harriet Sansom Harris – Hacks
4. Harriet Walter – Ted Lasso
5. Jane Adams – Hacks
6. Kaitlin Olson – Hacks

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

1. Bill Hader – Barry (“710N”)
2. Cherien Dabis – Only Murders in the Building (“The Boy from 6B”)
3. Lucia Aniello – Hacks (“There Will Be Blood”)
4. MJ Delaney – Ted Lasso (“No Weddings and a Funeral”)
5. Hiro Murai – Atlanta (“New Jazz”)
6. Jamie Babbit – Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”)
7. Mary Lou Belli – The Ms. Pat Show (“Baby Daddy Groundhog Day”)

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

1. Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary (“Pilot”)
2. Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky – Hacks (“The One, the Only”)
3. Jane Becker – Ted Lasso (“No Weddings and a Funeral”)
4. Steve Martin and John Hoffman – Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”)
5. Alec Berg and Bill Hader – Barry (“starting now”)
6. Duffy Boudreau – Barry (“710N”)
7. Stefani Robinson – What We Do in the Shadows (“The Wellness Center”)
8. Sarah Naftalis – What We Do in the Shadows (“The Casino”)

Of all of Quinta Brunson’s Emmy nominations, I still feel best about her winning here – it’s perhaps the best place to recognize the overall success of the show and Brunson’s creative (and comedic) brilliance – even though the Hacks team is running a great campaign, and that Season 2 finale is wickedly well-written. Brunson is out ahead in my opinion, but it could be close.

LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

1. The White Lotus
2. Dopesick
3. The Dropout
4. Pam and Tommy
5. Inventing Anna

Outstanding Television Movie

1. The Survivor
2. Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers
3. Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas
4. Ray Donovan: The Movie
5. Reno 911!: The Hunt for QAnon

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Michael Keaton – Dopesick
2. Sebastian Stan – Pam and Tommy
3. Andrew Garfield – Under the Banner of Heaven
4. Colin Firth – The Staircase
5. Oscar Isaac – Scenes from a Marriage
6. Himesh Patel – Station Eleven

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout
2. Lily James – Pam and Tommy
3. Julia Garner – Inventing Anna
4. Margaret Qualley – Maid
5. Toni Collette – The Staircase
6. Sarah Paulson – Impeachment: American Crime Story

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Murray Bartlett – The White Lotus
2. Jake Lacy – The White Lotus
3. Seth Rogen – Pam and Tommy
4. Peter Sarsgaard – Dopesick
5. Michael Stuhlbarg – Dopesick
6. Steve Zahn – The White Lotus
7. Will Poulter – Dopesick

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus
2. Kaitlyn Dever – Dopesick
3. Alexandra Daddario – The White Lotus
4. Connie Britton – The White Lotus
5. Natasha Rothwell – The White Lotus
6. Mare Winningham – Dopesick
7. Sydney Sweeney – The White Lotus

Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Mike White – The White Lotus
2. Danny Strong – Dopesick (“The People vs. Purdue Pharma”)
3. Hiro Murai – Station Eleven (“Wheel of Fire”)
4. John Wells – Maid (“Sky Blue”)
5. Francesca Gregorini – The Dropout (“Iron Sisters”)
6. Michael Showalter – The Dropout (“Green Juice”)

Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Mike White – The White Lotus
2. Danny Strong – Dopesick (“The People vs. Purdue Pharma”)
3. Elizabeth Meriwether – The Dropout (“I’m in a Hurry”)
4. Molly Smith Metzler – Maid (“Snaps”)
5. Patrick Somerville – Station Eleven (“Unbroken Circle”)
6. Sarah Burgess – Impeachment: American Crime Story (“Man Handled”)

VARIETY SERIES/SPECIAL

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

1. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
2. Late Show with Stephen Colbert
3. The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
4. Jimmy KimmeI Live
5. Late Night with Seth Meyers

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

1. Saturday Night Live
2. A Black Lady Sketch Show

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series

1. Don Roy King and Liz Patrick – Saturday Night Live (“Host: Billie Eilish”)
2. Paul Pennolino and Christopher Werner – Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (“Union Busting”)
3. Jim Hoskinson – The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (“Artistic Musical Performance by Chance the Rapper; Monologue: Ukraine & Russian War, January 6 Committee Evidence on Trump & Donald Jr.; Guest Beanie Feldstein”)
4. Alexander J. Vietmeier – Late Night with Seth Meyers (“Episode 1252”)
5. Bridger Stokes – A Black Lady Sketch Show (“Save my Edges, I’m a Donor!”)

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series

1. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
2. Late Show with Stephen Colbert
3. The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
4. Saturday Night Live
5. A Black Lady Sketch Show

Outstanding Variety Special (Live)

1. Live in Front of a Studio Audience: The Facts of Life and Diff’rent Strokes
2. The Tony Awards Present: Broadway’s Back!
3. The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar, and 50 Cent
4. The 64th Annual Grammy Awards
5. The Oscars

Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

1. Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special
2. Dave Chappelle: The Closer
3. Adele One Night Only
4. One Last Time: An Evening with Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga
5. Harry Potter 20th Anniversary: Return to Hogwarts

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special

1. Bo Burnham – Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel
2. Hamish Hamilton – The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar, and 50 Cent
3. Norm Macdonald and Jeff Tomsic – Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special
4. Stan Lathan – Dave Chappelle: The Closer
5. Paul Dugdale – Adele One Night Only

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special

1. Jerrod Carmichael – Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel
2. Norm Macdonald – Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special
3. Nicole Byer – Nicole Byer: BBW
4. Ali Wong – Ali Wong: Don Wong
5. Ian Berger, Devin Delliquanti, Jennifer Flanz, Jordan Klepper, Zhubin Parang, and Scott Sherman – Jordan Klepper Fingers the Globe

ANIMATED PROGRAM

Outstanding Animated Program

1. Arcane
2. What If…?
3. Rick and Morty
4. The Simpsons
5. Bob’s Burgers

Outstanding Character Voice-Over Performance

1. Chadwick Boseman – What If…?
2. Maya Rudolph – Big Mouth
3. Julie Andrews – Bridgerton
4. Jessica Walter – Archer
5. Jeffrey Wright – What If…?
6. Stanley Tucci – Central Park
7. F. Murray Abraham – Moon Knight

COMPETITION PROGRAM

Outstanding Competition Program

1. RuPaul’s Drag Race
2. The Amazing Race
3. Top Chef
4. The Voice
5. Nailed It
6. Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls

Outstanding Host for a Reality or Competition Program

1. RuPaul Charles – RuPaul’s Drag Race
2. Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski, and Jonathan Van Ness – Queer Eye
3. Padma Lakshmi – Top Chef
4. Nicole Byer – Nailed It
5. Amy Poehler and Nick Offerman – Making It
6. Mark Cuban, Barbara Corcoran, Lori Greiner, Robert Herjavec, Daymond John, and Kevin O’Leary – Shark Tank