Zoë’s Emmy Predictions – August 19th

Between the HCA Awards on Saturday and Sunday and the Better Call Saul finale on Monday, it was a very busy week in television, and these developments have certainly caused us to reconsider several key Emmy races, particularly in the acting categories. One race I’ve been keeping my eye on all season is that of Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series. For the longest time, it’s been assumed that this award is Zendaya’s for the taking, especially after she officially submitted the fifth episode from Season 2 of Euphoria, “Stand Still Like the Hummingbird,” which is essentially an hour-long Emmy clip for her. However, after Yellowjackets‘ overperformance with Emmy nominations, many started to look to Ms. Melanie Lynskey as her key competitor, and in the weeks that have followed, Lynskey’s momentum has only continued to build and build and build. From powerful profiles in Backstage and InStyle and wins at the Critics Choice Awards and now the Hollywood Critics Association as well (where she bested Zendaya), Lynskey is the talk of the town, and in a way, an Emmy win for her has the perception of being the more “exciting” proposition.

Don’t get us wrong: many Emmy voters (and viewers) would likely love to give Zendaya a win on-air, since her last win came during the 2020 virtual ceremony, but Lynskey has the advantage of being “the underdog,” and everybody likes to root for the underdog – especially since this underdog is a working actress who has been fighting to have her “main character moment” (perfectly put in her InStyle profile) for decades, and Yellowjackets has given her the biggest and best role of her career to date. And let’s revisit Yellowjackets overperformance with Emmy nominations, shall we? This is clearly a beloved show amongst the votership in multiple categories, but while it likely can’t top Severance, Squid Game, or Succession in the directing or writing line-ups, it does have a much clearer path in Lead Actress, where it faces no contenders from those shows and has an actress who already has so much going for her on her own, as well. There’s always the chance that Yellowjackets goes home empty-handed, but given how often Emmy voters like to spread the love, we’re wary to predict that. (Also of note: we haven’t had a repeat winner in Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series since Julianna Marguiles in 2014).

Who else could give some frontrunners a run for their money? Look out for our Better Call Saul cast and crew, as following the rapturously received series finale “Saul Gone” earlier this week, love for the show is stronger than ever, and even though Saul isn’t under consideration for this last string of episodes this year (these will actually be eligible next year), they’ve certainly elevated its profile in a critical voting period (Ted Lasso pulled this move last year – airing another “season” as the former was Emmy-eligible and up for awards – and it paid off profusely). Of Bob Odenkirk and Rhea Seehorn, I’d say Odenkirk has the easier path to a win this time around (Seehorn has more competition to climb over in Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series, from Julia Garner to Sarah Snook to Jung Ho-yeon to even Euphoria‘s Sydney Sweeney), as it remains unclear if Succession‘s Jeremy Strong has the strength to repeat despite the show pulling ahead elsewhere, and while Squid Game‘s Lee Jung-jae remains a tentative frontrunner, he’s not a sure thing (though both he and Odenkirk picked up Drama Actor awards at the HCAs this weekend, potentially setting up a showdown between the two).

Squid Game is an interesting contender to investigate overall, as it remains a top competitor in almost every category it’s nominated in – and it was a STAGGERING pop culture phenomenon when it released last September – but it seems no one can agree which category it’s strongest in. I’m going with Drama Actor for now, but I can just as easily see it find a win in Drama Directing (where I currently have Severance‘s Ben Stiller ahead), and I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Oh Young-soo pulls off an “upset” in Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series. He did win the Golden Globe after all, and he’s critical to the conclusion of Squid Game in a way you can’t shake, and if voters can’t choose between Succession‘s Matthew Macfadyen and Kieran Culkin, perhaps Oh is an appealing alternative. I think Jung Ho-yeon will have a harder time doing the same in Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series however, despite her SAG victory (her category is a smidge more stacked), though I would say a win here is still not the least likely for Squid Game, as I’d give that label to its bid for Drama Writing.

Other odds and ends include Hannah Einbinder – fresh off a HCA win – rising to third in Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series behind Janelle James and Hannah Waddingham (but ahead of Abbott Elementary‘s Sheryl Lee Ralph, as James seems to be the strongest contender from that show in this category) and the race for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie becoming closer between frontrunner Jennifer Coolidge and challenger Kaitlyn Dever (who also both won HCA awards this weekend). We’re quickly coming to the end of the Emmy season, with many pundits about to shift their focus entirely to the Oscars, but just because the ceremony is closer than ever, that doesn’t mean races are sewn up for good, as there are still several categories were surprises could occur (if Zendaya isn’t Euphoria‘s acting win, could it be Sydney Sweeney?) and the Emmys always love to throw us a curveball every now and then. So, without further ado, here are my Emmy predictions for the second-to-last week in August, and I’ll see you next Friday for more.

DRAMA SERIES

Outstanding Drama Series

1. Succession
2. Severance
3. Squid Game
4. Better Call Saul
5. Yellowjackets
6. Ozark
7. Euphoria
8. Stranger Things

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

1. Lee Jung-jae – Squid Game
2. Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
3. Jeremy Strong – Succession
4. Brian Cox – Succession
5. Jason Bateman – Ozark
6. Adam Scott – Severance

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

1. Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets (+1)
2. Zendaya – Euphoria (-1)
3. Laura Linney – Ozark
4. Jodie Comer – Killing Eve
5. Sandra Oh – Killing Eve
6. Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

1. Matthew Macfadyen – Succession
2. Kieran Culkin – Succession
3. Oh Young-soo – Squid Game
4. John Turturro – Severance
5. Billy Crudup – The Morning Show (+3)
6. Christopher Walken – Severance (-1)
7. Nicholas Braun – Succession (-1)
8. Park Hae-soo – Squid Game (-1)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

1. Julia Garner – Ozark
2. Sydney Sweeney – Euphoria
3. Sarah Snook – Succession
4. Jung Ho-yeon – Squid Game
5. Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul
6. Christina Ricci – Yellowjackets
7. Patricia Arquette – Severance
8. J. Smith-Cameron – Succession

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series

1. Colman Domingo – Euphoria
2. Alexander Skarsgård – Succession
3. Tom Pelphrey – Ozark
4. Adrien Brody – Succession
5. James Cromwell – Succession
6. Arian Moayed – Succession

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series

1. Harriet Walter – Succession
2. Lee Yoo-mi – Squid Game
3. Martha Kelly – Euphoria
4. Marcia Gay Harden – The Morning Show
5. Hope Davis – Succession
6. Sanaa Lathan – Succession

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

1. Ben Stiller – Severance (“The We We Are”)
2. Hwang Dong-hyuk – Squid Game (“Red Light, Green Light”)
3. Mark Mylod – Succession (“All the Bells Say”)
4. Karyn Kusama – Yellowjackets (“Pilot”)
5. Jason Bateman – Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”)
6. Lorene Scafaria – Succession (“Too Much Birthday”)
7. Cathy Yan – Succession (“The Disruption”)

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

1. Jesse Armstrong – Succession (“All the Bells Say”)
2. Dan Erickson – Severance (“The We We Are”)
3. Thomas Schnauz – Better Call Saul (“Plan and Execution”)
4. Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson – Yellowjackets (“Pilot”)
5. Chris Mundy – Ozark (“A Hard Way to Go”)
6. Hwang Dong-hyuk – Squid Game (“One Lucky Day”)
7. Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle, and Bart Nickerson – Yellowjackets (“F Sharp”)

COMEDY SERIES

Outstanding Comedy Series

1. Abbott Elementary
2. Ted Lasso
3. Hacks
4. Barry
5. Only Murders in the Building
6. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
7. What We Do in the Shadows
8. Curb Your Enthusiasm

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

1. Bill Hader – Barry
2. Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso
3. Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building
4. Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building
5. Donald Glover – Atlanta
6. Nicholas Hoult – The Great

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

1. Jean Smart – Hacks
2. Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
3. Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
4. Issa Rae – Insecure
5. Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant
6. Elle Fanning – The Great

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

1. Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso
2. Henry Winkler – Barry
3. Anthony Carrigan – Barry
4. Nick Mohammed – Ted Lasso
5. Toheeb Jimoh – Ted Lasso
6. Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
7. Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary
8. Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

1. Janelle James – Abbott Elementary
2. Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso
3. Hannah Einbinder – Hacks (+1)
4. Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary (-1)
5. Sarah Niles – Ted Lasso
6. Juno Temple – Ted Lasso
7. Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
8. Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

1. Nathan Lane – Only Murders in the Building
2. Jerrod Carmichael – Saturday Night Live
3. Bill Hader – Curb Your Enthusiasm
4. Christopher McDonald – Hacks
5. Sam Richardson – Ted Lasso
6. James Lance – Ted Lasso

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

1. Jane Lynch – Only Murders in the Building
2. Laurie Metcalf – Hacks
3. Harriet Sansom Harris – Hacks
4. Harriet Walter – Ted Lasso
5. Jane Adams – Hacks
6. Kaitlin Olson – Hacks

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

1. Bill Hader – Barry (“710N”)
2. Cherien Dabis – Only Murders in the Building (“The Boy from 6B”)
3. Lucia Aniello – Hacks (“There Will Be Blood”)
4. MJ Delaney – Ted Lasso (“No Weddings and a Funeral”)
5. Hiro Murai – Atlanta (“New Jazz”)
6. Jamie Babbit – Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”)
7. Mary Lou Belli – The Ms. Pat Show (“Baby Daddy Groundhog Day”)

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

1. Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary (“Pilot”)
2. Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky – Hacks (“The One, the Only”)
3. Jane Becker – Ted Lasso (“No Weddings and a Funeral”)
4. Steve Martin and John Hoffman – Only Murders in the Building (“True Crime”)
5. Alec Berg and Bill Hader – Barry (“starting now”)
6. Duffy Boudreau – Barry (“710N”)
7. Stefani Robinson – What We Do in the Shadows (“The Wellness Center”)
8. Sarah Naftalis – What We Do in the Shadows (“The Casino”)

LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

1. The White Lotus
2. Dopesick
3. The Dropout
4. Pam and Tommy
5. Inventing Anna

Outstanding Television Movie

1. The Survivor
2. Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers
3. Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas
4. Ray Donovan: The Movie
5. Reno 911!: The Hunt for QAnon

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Michael Keaton – Dopesick
2. Sebastian Stan – Pam and Tommy
3. Andrew Garfield – Under the Banner of Heaven
4. Colin Firth – The Staircase
5. Oscar Isaac – Scenes from a Marriage
6. Himesh Patel – Station Eleven

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout
2. Lily James – Pam and Tommy
3. Julia Garner – Inventing Anna
4. Margaret Qualley – Maid
5. Toni Collette – The Staircase
6. Sarah Paulson – Impeachment: American Crime Story

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Murray Bartlett – The White Lotus
2. Jake Lacy – The White Lotus
3. Seth Rogen – Pam and Tommy
4. Peter Sarsgaard – Dopesick
5. Michael Stuhlbarg – Dopesick
6. Steve Zahn – The White Lotus
7. Will Poulter – Dopesick

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus
2. Kaitlyn Dever – Dopesick
3. Alexandra Daddario – The White Lotus
4. Connie Britton – The White Lotus
5. Natasha Rothwell – The White Lotus
6. Mare Winningham – Dopesick
7. Sydney Sweeney – The White Lotus

Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Mike White – The White Lotus
2. Danny Strong – Dopesick (“The People vs. Purdue Pharma”)
3. Hiro Murai – Station Eleven (“Wheel of Fire”)
4. John Wells – Maid (“Sky Blue”)
5. Francesca Gregorini – The Dropout (“Iron Sisters”)
6. Michael Showalter – The Dropout (“Green Juice”)

Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

1. Mike White – The White Lotus
2. Danny Strong – Dopesick (“The People vs. Purdue Pharma”)
3. Elizabeth Meriwether – The Dropout (“I’m in a Hurry”)
4. Molly Smith Metzler – Maid (“Snaps”)
5. Patrick Somerville – Station Eleven (“Unbroken Circle”)
6. Sarah Burgess – Impeachment: American Crime Story (“Man Handled”)

VARIETY SERIES/SPECIAL

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

1. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
2. Late Show with Stephen Colbert
3. The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
4. Jimmy KimmeI Live
5. Late Night with Seth Meyers

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

1. Saturday Night Live
2. A Black Lady Sketch Show

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series

1. Don Roy King and Liz Patrick – Saturday Night Live (“Host: Billie Eilish”)
2. Paul Pennolino and Christopher Werner – Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (“Union Busting”)
3. Jim Hoskinson – The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (“Artistic Musical Performance by Chance the Rapper; Monologue: Ukraine & Russian War, January 6 Committee Evidence on Trump & Donald Jr.; Guest Beanie Feldstein”)
4. Alexander J. Vietmeier – Late Night with Seth Meyers (“Episode 1252”)
5. Bridger Stokes – A Black Lady Sketch Show (“Save my Edges, I’m a Donor!”)

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series

1. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
2. Late Show with Stephen Colbert
3. The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
4. Saturday Night Live
5. A Black Lady Sketch Show

Outstanding Variety Special (Live)

1. Live in Front of a Studio Audience: The Facts of Life and Diff’rent Strokes
2. The Tony Awards Present: Broadway’s Back!
3. The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar, and 50 Cent
4. The 64th Annual Grammy Awards
5. The Oscars

Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

1. Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special
2. Dave Chappelle: The Closer
3. Adele One Night Only
4. One Last Time: An Evening with Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga
5. Harry Potter 20th Anniversary: Return to Hogwarts

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special

1. Bo Burnham – Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel
2. Hamish Hamilton – The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar, and 50 Cent
3. Norm Macdonald and Jeff Tomsic – Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special
4. Stan Lathan – Dave Chappelle: The Closer
5. Paul Dugdale – Adele One Night Only

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special

1. Jerrod Carmichael – Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel
2. Norm Macdonald – Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special
3. Nicole Byer – Nicole Byer: BBW
4. Ali Wong – Ali Wong: Don Wong
5. Ian Berger, Devin Delliquanti, Jennifer Flanz, Jordan Klepper, Zhubin Parang, and Scott Sherman – Jordan Klepper Fingers the Globe

ANIMATED PROGRAM

Outstanding Animated Program

1. Arcane
2. What If…?
3. Rick and Morty
4. The Simpsons
5. Bob’s Burgers

Outstanding Character Voice-Over Performance

1. Chadwick Boseman – What If…?
2. Maya Rudolph – Big Mouth
3. Julie Andrews – Bridgerton
4. Jessica Walter – Archer
5. Jeffrey Wright – What If…?
6. Stanley Tucci – Central Park
7. F. Murray Abraham – Moon Knight

COMPETITION PROGRAM

Outstanding Competition Program

1. RuPaul’s Drag Race
2. The Amazing Race
3. Top Chef
4. The Voice
5. Nailed It
6. Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls

Outstanding Host for a Reality or Competition Program

1. RuPaul Charles – RuPaul’s Drag Race
2. Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski, and Jonathan Van Ness – Queer Eye
3. Padma Lakshmi – Top Chef
4. Nicole Byer – Nailed It
5. Amy Poehler and Nick Offerman – Making It
6. Mark Cuban, Barbara Corcoran, Lori Greiner, Robert Herjavec, Daymond John, and Kevin O’Leary – Shark Tank