Zoë’s 2023 Academy Awards Predictions – February 24th

It’s been three weeks since my last update to my 2023 Academy Awards predictions, but we were also in that “post Oscar nominations lull” in awards season, where we have little to do but to bide our time until the precursors start chiming in and making the races in these categories a whole lot clearer (or, conversely, confusing). As such, with the announcement of the DGA and BAFTA winners – along with a slew of other guilds awards (MUAHS, ADG, SCL, etc.) – everything is starting to make a whole lot more sense, and we’ll be even better aware of which films are best positioned for Oscar glory after the PGA Awards and SAG Awards this Saturday and Sunday respectively, while next week brings the WGA, ASC, and ACE Awards.

We’ll be back on a regular update schedule now that there’s so much to discuss every single day, but for now, here’s how I’m feeling about what films will win these 23 trophies in two weeks, with the biggest updates being the solidification of several frontrunners (Daniels in Best Director, Austin Butler in Best Actor), several acting award switch-ups (Blanchett or Yeoh? Condon or Bassett?), and All Quiet on the Western Front‘s ascent across-the-board (is it taking Adapted Screenplay from Women Talking and Original Score from Babylon?).

BEST PICTURE

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – NBR, AFI, GG, CC*, HCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – NBR, AFI, GG*, CC, HCA, SAG, PGA, BAFTA

3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA* (+4)

4. Elvis (Warner Bros.) – AFI, GG, CC, HCA, PGA, BAFTA (+3)

5. TÁR (Focus Features) – AFI, GG, CC, HCA, PGA, BAFTA (-1)

6. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – NBR*, AFI, GG, CC, HCA, PGA (-3)

7. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – NBR, AFI, GG*, CC, HCA, SAG, PGA (-2)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – NBR, AFI, GG, CC, HCA, PGA

9. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG

10. Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – NBR, AFI, CC, HCA, SAG

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG, CC*, HCA, DGA*, BAFTA

2. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG*, CC, HCA, DGA

3. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) – CC, HCA, DGA, BAFTA

4. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA, DGA, BAFTA

5. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)

BEST ACTOR

1. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – GG*, CC, HCA, SAG, BAFTA*

2. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG*, CC, HCA, SAG, BAFTA

3. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24) – GG, CC*, HCA, SAG, BAFTA

4. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, CC, SAG, BAFTA

5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) – CC, HCA, BAFTA

BEST ACTRESS

1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) – GG*, CC*, HCA, SAG, BAFTA* (+1)

2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG*, CC, HCA, SAG, BAFTA (-1)

3. Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie (Momentum Pictures) (+2)

4. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA (-1)

5. Ana de Armas – Blonde (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA (-1)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG*, CC*, HCA, SAG, BAFTA

2. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA, SAG, BAFTA* (+1)

3. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA, SAG, BAFTA (-1)

4. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CC

5. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple TV+) – CC, HCA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA, SAG, BAFTA* (+1)

2. Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – GG*, CC*, HCA, SAG, BAFTA (-1)

3. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG, CC, HCA, SAG, BAFTA

4. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) – SAG, BAFTA

5. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CC, HCA, SAG

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – GG, CC*, HCA, BAFTA, WGA

2. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA*

3. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA, WGA

4. Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA, WGA

5. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – BAFTA

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson, and Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA* (+1)

2. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – GG, CC*, HCA, WGA (-1)

3. Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – WGA

4. Kazuo Ishiguro – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – CC, BAFTA

5. Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CC, HCA, WGA

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BSC*, BAFTA* (+1)

2. Mandy Walker – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – ASC, BSC, BAFTA (-1)

3. Florian Hoffmeister – TÁR (Focus Features) – BSC

4. Darius Khondji – Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) – ASC

5. Roger Deakins – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – CC, ASC, BAFTA

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Catherine Martin – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CC, HCA, CDG, BAFTA*

2. Mary Zophres – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA, CDG, BAFTA

3. Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CC*, HCA, CDG

4. Shirley Kurata – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CC, CDG

5. Jenny Beavan – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features) – HCA, CDG, BAFTA

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CC*, HCA, BAFTA*, ACE (+1)

2. Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA, BAFTA, ACE (-1)

3. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CC, BAFTA, ACE

4. Monika Willi – TÁR (Focus Features) – CC, ACE

5. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, ACE

BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING

1. Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, and Aldo Signoretti – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CC*, HCA, MUAHS*, BAFTA*

2. Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, and Adrien Morot – The Whale (A24) – CC, HCA, MUAHS*, BAFTA

3. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Zoe Tahir – The Batman (Warner Bros.) – CC, HCA, MUAHS, BAFTA

4. Heike Merker – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA

5. Camille Friend and Joel Harlow – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CC, HCA, MUAHS

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Volker Bertelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA* (+2)

2. Justin Hurwitz – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA (-1)

3. Son Lux – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – HMMA, SCL*, BAFTA (-1)

4. John Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CC

5. Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – HMMA, GG, HCA, SCL, BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Naatu Naatu” – RRR (Sarigama Cinemas) – GG*, CC*

2. “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – HMMA, GG, CC, SCL

3. “Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – HMMA*, GG, CC, SCL

4. “This Is A Life” – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – HMMA

5. “Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman (Samuel Goldwyn Films) – HMMA*, SCL*

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Florencia Martin (Production Design) and Anthony Carlino (Set Decoration) – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – CC*, HCA, SDSA, ADG*, BAFTA (+1)

2. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy (Production Design) and Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration) – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CC, HCA, SDSA*, ADG, BAFTA (-1)

3. Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (Production Design) and Vanessa Cole (Set Decoration) – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CC, HCA, SDSA, ADG

4. Christian M. Goldbeck (Production Design) and Ernestine Hipper (Set Decoration) – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA

5. Rick Carter (Production Design) and Karen O’Hara (Set Decoration) – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CC, SDSA, ADG

BEST SOUND

1. Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, and Mark Weingarten – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – HCA, CAS, MPSE, BAFTA

2. Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil, and Markus Stemler – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – CAS, MPSE, BAFTA*

3. Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, and Wayne Pashley – Elvis (Warner Bros.) – HCA, CAS, MPSE, BAFTA

4. Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers, and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – HCA, BAFTA Longlist, CAS, MPSE, BAFTA

5. William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson, and Stuart Wilson – The Batman (Warner Bros.) – HCA, CAS, MPSE

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri, and Eric Saindon – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CC*, HCA, VES*, BAFTA*

2. Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Ryan Tudhope – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CC, HCA, VES, BAFTA

3. Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Müller, and Frank Petzold – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA

4. Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon, and Dominic Tuohy – The Batman (Warner Bros.) – CC, VES, BAFTA

5. Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick, and R. Christopher White – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CC

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – GG*, CC*, HCA, PGA, BAFTA*

2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation) – GG, CC, HCA, PGA, BAFTA (+1)

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24) – GG, CC, HCA, PGA, BAFTA (-1)

4. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation) – GG, CC, HCA, PGA, BAFTA

5. The Sea Beast (Netflix)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Navalny (Warner Bros.) – CC, PGA, BAFTA* (+1)

2. Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/NEON) – CC, PGA, HCA, BAFTA (-1)

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) – HCA, BAFTA

4. All That Breathes (Submarine Deluxe) – PGA, BAFTA

5. A House Made of Splinters (Cinephil)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – Germany – GG, CC, HCA, BAFTA*

2. Argentina, 1985 (Amazon Studios) – Argentina – GG*, CC, HCA, BAFTA

3. Close (A24) – Belgium – GG, CC, HCA

4. The Quiet Girl (Break Out Pictures) – Ireland – BAFTA

5. EO (Sideshow) – Poland

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. My Year of Dicks

2. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

3. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

4. The Flying Sailor

5. Ice Merchants

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

1. The Elephant Whisperers

2. How Do You Measure a Year?

3. The Martha Mitchell Effect

4. Haulout

5. Stranger at the Gate

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

1. An Irish Goodbye (+1)

2. Le Pupille (-1)

3. The Red Suitcase

4. Night Ride

5. Ivalu

WIN/NOMINATION TALLIES

• Everything Everywhere All at Once (5/11)
  • Best Picture (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, and Jonathan Wang)
  • Best Director (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
  • Best Actress (Michelle Yeoh)
  • Best Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan)
  • Best Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis)
  • Best Supporting Actress (Stephanie Hsu)
  • Best Original Screenplay (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
  • Best Costume Design (Shirley Kurata)
  • Best Film Editing (Paul Rogers)
  • Best Original Score (Son Lux)
  • Best Original Song (“This Is A Life”)
• All Quiet on the Western Front (4/9)
  • Best Picture (Malte Grunert)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay (Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson, and Ian Stokell)
  • Best Cinematography (James Friend)
  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová)
  • Best Original Score (Volker Bertelmann)
  • Best Production Design (Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper)
  • Best Sound (Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil, and Markus Stemler)
  • Best Visual Effects (Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Müller, and Frank Petzold)
  • Best International Feature Film
• The Banshees of Inisherin (1/9)
  • Best Picture (Graham Broadbent, Pete Czerin, and Martin McDonagh)
  • Best Director (Martin McDonagh)
  • Best Actor (Colin Farrell)
  • Best Supporting Actor (Brendan Gleeson)
  • Best Supporting Actor (Barry Keoghan)
  • Best Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon)
  • Best Original Screenplay (Martin McDonagh)
  • Best Film Editing (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)
  • Best Original Score (Carter Burwell)
• Elvis (3/8)
  • Best Picture (Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, and Schuyler Weiss)
  • Best Actor (Austin Butler)
  • Best Cinematography (Mandy Walker)
  • Best Costume Design (Catherine Martin)
  • Best Film Editing (Jonathan Redmond and Matt Villa)
  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, and Aldo Signoretti)
  • Best Production Design (Bev Dunn, Catherine Martin, and Karen Murphy)
  • Best Sound (Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, and Wayne Pashley)
• The Fabelmans (0/7)
  • Best Picture (Kristie Macosko Krieger, Tony Kushner, and Steven Spielberg)
  • Best Director (Steven Spielberg)
  • Best Actress (Michelle Williams)
  • Best Supporting Actor (Judd Hirsch)
  • Best Original Screenplay (Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg)
  • Best Production Design (Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara)
  • Best Original Score (John Williams)
• Top Gun: Maverick (1/6)
  • Best Picture (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, David Ellison, and Christopher McQuarrie)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay (Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer)
  • Best Film Editing (Eddie Hamilton)
  • Best Original Song (“Hold My Hand”)
  • Best Sound (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, and Mark Weingarten)
  • Best Visual Effects (Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Ryan Tudhope)
• TÁR (1/6)
  • Best Picture (Todd Field, Scott Lambert, and Alexandra Milchan)
  • Best Director (Todd Field)
  • Best Actress (Cate Blanchett)
  • Best Original Screenplay (Todd Field)
  • Best Cinematography (Florian Hoffmeister)
  • Best Film Editing (Monika Willi)
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (0/5)
  • Best Supporting Actress (Angela Bassett)
  • Best Costume Design (Ruth E. Carter)
  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Camille Friend and Joel Harlow)
  • Best Original Song (“Lift Me Up”)
  • Best Visual Effects (Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick, and R. Christopher White)
•  Avatar: The Way of Water (1/4)
  • Best Picture (James Cameron and Jon Landau)
  • Best Production Design (Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole, and Ben Procter)
  • Best Sound (Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers, and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle)
  • Best Visual Effects (Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri, and Eric Saindon)
• Babylon (1/3)
  • Best Costume Design (Mary Zophres)
  • Best Original Score (Justin Hurwitz)
  • Best Production Design (Anthony Carlino and Florencia Martin)
• The Batman (0/3)
  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Zoe Tahir)
  • Best Sound (William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson, and Stuart Wilson)
  • Best Visual Effects (Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon, and Dominic Tuohy)
• Triangle of Sadness (0/3)
  • Best Picture (Philippe Bober and Erik Hemmendorff)
  • Best Director (Ruben Östlund)
  • Best Original Screenplay (Ruben Östlund)
• The Whale (0/3)
  • Best Actor (Brendan Fraser)
  • Best Supporting Actress (Hong Chau)
  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, and Adrien Morot)
• Living (0/2)
  • Best Actor (Bill Nighy)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay (Kazuo Ishiguro)
• Women Talking (0/2)
  • Best Picture (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Frances McDormand)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay (Sarah Polley)
• Aftersun (0/1)
  • Best Actor (Paul Mescal)
• All That Breathes (0/1)
  • Best Documentary Feature
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (0/1)
  • Best Documentary Feature
• Argentina, 1985 (0/1)
  • Best International Feature Film
• Blonde (0/1)
  • Best Actress (Ana de Armas)
• The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse (0/1)
  • Best Animated Short Film
• Causeway (1)
  • Best Supporting Actor (Brian Tyree Henry)
• Close (0/1)
  • Best International Feature Film
• The Elephant Whisperers (1/1)
  • Best Documentary Short Film
• Empire of Light (0/1)
  • Best Cinematography (Roger Deakins)
• EO (0/1)
  • Best International Feature Film
• Fire of Love (0/1)
  • Best Documentary Feature
• The Flying Sailor (0/1)
  • Best Animated Short Film
• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (1/1)
  • Best Animated Feature (Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Lisa Henson, and Gary Ungar)
• Haulout (0/1)
  • Best Documentary Short Film
• A House Made of Splinters (0/1)
  • Best Documentary Feature
• How Do You Measure a Year? (0/1)
  • Best Documentary Short Film
• Ice Merchants (0/1)
  • Best Animated Short Film
• An Irish Goodbye (0/1)
  • Best Live Action Short Film
• Ivalu (0/1)
  • Best Live Action Short Film
• Le Pupille (0/1)
  • Best Live Action Short Film
• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (0/1)
  • Best Animated Feature
• The Martha Mitchell Effect (0/1)
  • Best Documentary Short Film
• Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (0/1)
  • Best Costume Design (Jenny Beavan)
• My Year of Dicks (1/1)
  • Best Animated Short Film
• Navalny (0/1)
  • Best Documentary Feature
• Night Ride (0/1)
  • Best Live Action Short Film
• An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It (0/1)
  • Best Animated Short
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (0/1)
  • Best Animated Feature
• The Quiet Girl (0/1)
  • Best International Feature Film
• The Red Suitcase (0/1)
  • Best Live Action Short Film
• RRR (1/1)
  • Best Original Song (“Naatu Naatu”)
• The Sea Beast (0/1)
  • Best Animated Feature
• Stranger at the Gate (0/1)
  • Best Documentary Short Film
• Tell It Like a Woman (0/1)
  • Best Original Song (“Applause”)
• To Leslie (0/1)
  • Best Actress (Andrea Riseborough)
• Turning Red (0/1)
  • Best Animated Feature