Tomorrow brings one of the final sets of precursor nominations we’ll see before the announcement of the Oscar noms next Tuesday, and those are from the British Academy Film Awards. Under this awards body’s jury system – which has been in effect for two years now, making it so that the nominations for categories like Best Film, Best Directing, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress are decided in part by the entire votership and in part by a select jury seeking to diversify the potential line-up – we’re often flying blind trying to accurately predict what their final nominations will look like, but I’ve done my best below, drawing on my broader read of the race this awards season overall and my idea of what contenders would garner support from BAFTA specifically. Expect some massive snubs and surprises (BAFTA’s modus operandi, as of late), and as you’ll see from my predictions, I’ve tried to get ahead of the curve this time.
BEST FILM
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
ALT: TÁR
NOTE: All film voting members of BAFTA vote to determine these nominations.
BEST DIRECTION
Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front
Alice Diop – Saint Omer
Todd Field – TÁR
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Charlotte Wells – Aftersun
ALT: Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave
NOTE: 16 films advanced in the Director category. Members of the Directing chapter voted to determine the longlist of 10 (five male and five female) of which the top two are nominated. A jury selects a further three male and three female to create a longlist of 16 (eight male and eight female directors). A jury also selects four Directors from the longlist to make up a nominee list of six directors.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Austin Butler – Elvis
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Felix Kammerer – All Quiet on the Western Front
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living
ALT: Daniel Kaluuya – Nope
NOTE: 10 performances advanced in the Leading Actor category. Members of the Acting chapter vote to determine the longlist (of which the top three are nominated). A longlisting jury selects a further three performances to create a longlist of 10. A nominating jury then selects three performances from the longlist to make up a nominee list of six performances.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett – TÁR
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler – Till
Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
ALT: Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody
NOTE: 10 performances advanced in the Leading Actress category. Members of the Acting chapter vote to determine the longlist (of which the top three are nominated). A longlisting jury selects a further three performances to create a longlist of 10. A nominating jury then selects three performances from the longlist to make up a nominee list of six performances.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front
Micheal Ward – Empire of Light
Ben Whishaw – Women Talking
ALT: Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse
NOTE: 10 performances advanced in the Supporting Actor category. Members of the Acting chapter vote to determine the longlist (of which the top three are nominated). A longlisting jury selects a further three performances to create a longlist of 10. A nominating jury then selects three performances from the longlist to make up a nominee list of six performances.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness
Lashana Lynch – The Woman King
ALT: Aimee Lou Wood – Living
NOTE: 10 performances advanced in the Supporting Actress category. Members of the Acting chapter vote to determine the longlist (of which the top three are nominated). A longlisting jury selects a further three performances to create a longlist of 10. A nominating jury then selects three performances from the longlist to make up a nominee list of six performances.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Todd Field – TÁR
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
Charlotte Wells – Aftersun
ALT: Sam Bromell, Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, and Craig Pearce – Elvis
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Original Screenplay category. Members of the Writers chapter voted to determine the longlist and the nominations.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front
Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale
Kazuo Ishiguro – Living
Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
ALT: Rebecca Lenkiewicz – She Said
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Adapted Screenplay category. Members of the Writers chapter voted to determine the longlist and the nominations.
BEST CASTING
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Triangle of Sadness
ALT: Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Casting category. Members of the Casting chapter vote to determine the longlist and a jury selects the five nominations.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Top Gun: Maverick
ALT: Athena
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Cinematography category. Members of the Cinematography chapter vote to determine the longlist and the nominations.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Corsage
Elvis
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
ALT: All Quiet on the Western Front
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Costume Design category. Members of the Costume and Makeup & Hair chapters vote to determine the longlist and the nominations.
BEST EDITING
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
ALT: The Banshees of Inisherin
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Editing category. Members of the Editing chapter vote to determine the longlist and the nominations.
BEST MAKE UP & HAIR
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Blonde
Elvis
The Whale
ALT: Amsterdam
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Make Up & Hair category. Members of the Costume and Makeup & Hair chapters vote to determine the longlist and the nominations.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Empire of Light
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Women Talking
ALT: All Quiet on the Western Front
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Original Score category. Members of the Music chapter vote to determine the longlist and the nominations.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
Empire of Light
ALT: The Fabelmans
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Production Design category. Members of the Production Design chapter vote to determine the longlist and the nominations.
BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
ALT: Everything Everywhere All at Once
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Sound category. Members of the Sound chapter vote to determine the longlist and the nominations.
BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Top Gun: Maverick
ALT: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Special Visual Effects category. Members of the SVFX chapter vote to determine the longlist and the nominations.
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Blue Jean
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Lady Chatterley’s Lover
Living
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
The Swimmers
The Wonder
ALT: Emily
NOTE: 15 films advanced in the Outstanding British Film category. All BAFTA film voting members were invited to join an opt-in chapter to determine the longlist (of which the top five are nominated). A jury selects the remaining five nominations.
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR, OR PRODUCER
Aftersun
Blue Jean
Electric Malady
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
ALT: Wayfinder
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Outstanding Debut category. A jury determines the nominations.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
ALT: The Amazing Maurice
NOTE: Eight films advanced in the Animated Film category. All BAFTA film voting members were invited to join an opt-in chapter to determine the longlist. This chapter will vote to nominate four films as well.
DOCUMENTARY
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
The Ghost of Richard Harris
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
ALT: All That Breathes
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Documentary category. All BAFTA film voting members were invited to join an opt-in chapter to determine the longlist (of which the top two are nominated). A jury selects the remaining three nominations.
FILM NOT IN ENGLISH LANGUAGE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Close
Corsage
Decision to Leave
EO
ALT: Argentina, 1985
NOTE: 10 films advanced in the Film Not in the English Language category. All BAFTA film voting members were invited to join an opt-in chapter to determine the longlist. This chapter will also vote to nominate five films.
