The BAFTA Awards may have thrown a wrench in our predictions and shaken up several races – especially in the acting categories – but the SAG Awards are about to offer their rebuttal this Sunday, which should make a few categories clearer and others far more confusing.
Heading into the night, The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once led the nominations with five a piece (ensemble + four individual acting nominations), tying the record for the most nominations previously set by 1998’s Shakespeare in Love, 2002’s Chicago, and 2008’s Doubt. Given that both received so much love, it stands to reason that both could pick up a few wins as well, but that’s not always the case: at the BAFTAs, both Banshees and EEAAO earned 10 nominations while Banshees ultimately won four awards and EEAAO only won one.
That’s one of the justifications I’m using for erring more on the side of EEAAO in my predictions, as well as the fact that SAG voters have a) historically favored diverse, representative winners and ensembles (The Help, Hidden Figures, Black Panther, Parasite, CODA, etc.) and b) been kinder to genre films than other awards bodies (the aforementioned Black Panther, nominating Lupita Nyong’o in 2019, etc.). Additionally, SAG is the awards body that turned Parasite and CODA into legitimate threats for Best Picture, and given that I’ve been quite confident on EEAAO‘s chances in that category since the start, I’m not switching up now. So, with all that said, let’s just get right into it.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Note: Because of everything I just said about SAG above – and EEAAO‘s status as “the frontrunner” in Best Picture – I’m not overthinking this one.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will Win: Austin Butler – Elvis
Could Win: Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Note: BAFTA should’ve been the hardest award for Austin Butler to win, especially with how well Banshees did; that was Colin Farrell’s last stand. Conversely, Butler’s role and performance is tailor-made for a SAG win – a big, showy, transformative take on a musical icon everyone knows in a bombastic biopic that was a huge mainstream hit. Yeah, it’s his.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Cate Blanchett – TÁR
Note: I’m close to conceding that the Oscar will be going to Cate Blanchett, but I still (stubbornly) refuse to budge from Michelle Yeoh at SAG. I believe there’s enough love for EEAAO – and her, individually – for her to be swept up in this awards body’s adoration and adulation of the film and for her to win at least one industry award. And even if it isn’t enough to completely shake up the Oscar race in this category, it reminds me of situations like when Viola Davis took home this trophy for The Help even when Meryl Streep still nabbed her third Oscar for The Iron Lady following Golden Globes and BAFTA victories. Maybe Cate is this year’s acting sweeper, but I’m not moving from Michelle.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Note: Even though Barry Keoghan just pulled a shocking upset over Ke Huy Quan at the BAFTAs, I don’t think anything is standing in Quan’s way at the SAG, which is all he’ll need to be on track for the Oscar win once more. Keoghan has established himself as the clear #2, but Quan will be carried along with his narrative and the enthusiasm for EEAAO.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will Win: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Could Win: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Note: Kerry Condon is looking a lottttt stronger in the Oscar race after her BAFTA victory (considering Angela Bassett, her main competition, hails from a non-Best Picture nominee, while she’s starring in a film that got nine nominations including top honors and already has this award under her belt), but I still think SAG goes to the bigger star, and the one with the baitier “overdue” narrative – and let’s not forget that they’ve already awarded Black Panther before. If Banshees wins anywhere, I think it’d be here, but I have enough faith in Bassett’s performance and campaign to get her this win, even if the Oscar goes elsewhere.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Could Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will Win: The White Lotus
Could Win: Severance
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will Win: Abbott Elementary
Could Win: The Bear
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will Win: Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
Could Win: Adam Scott – Severance
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will Win: Zendaya – Euphoria
Could Win: Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will Win: Jeremy Allen White – The Bear
Could Win: Bill Hader – Barry
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will Win: Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
Could Win: Jean Smart – Hacks
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES
Will Win: Evan Peters – Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Could Win: Paul Walter Hauser – Black Bird
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES
Will Win: Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout
Could Win: Niecy Nash-Betts – Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
Will Win: House of the Dragon
Could Win: Andor