I know what you’re thinking. It hasn’t even been a WEEK since the Oscars! Why are we already talking about the NEXT awards season? And you know what? You’re right. This is admittedly pretty insane. But for starters, I didn’t invent “extremely early Oscar predictions” – hell, they’ve probably been around since before I was even born. Whether I do them or not, almost everyone else will. And what can I say? I’ve never seen a bandwagon I didn’t want to jump on. But also, in all honesty, none of the predictions I’ve posted below are even remotely iron-clad, and more than anything, it’s just for fun! I like to look back at these “extremely early Oscar predictions” and then see how OBSCENELY wrong I was or which “longshot” calls actually paid off (hello, Everything Everywhere All at Once?). Obviously so much can – and will – change between now and next year’s Oscars (and between now and the fall, to be frank), but this is an interesting snapshot to see what the consensus is in certain categories this far out, and it also gets us psyched about what films we have to look forward to throughout the rest of the year.
Obviously, we all know you can probably pencil Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon in for nominations across-the-board, above-and-below-the-line, and there are a few others that will show up on almost everyone’s lists too, like Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer or Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. And then, there are the “big bets” – the ones you go all-in on that some others may be more reticent to embrace or simply may not have even heard of yet. While there isn’t an EEAAO that has emerged this year so far (sorry SXSW), you’ll see below that Greta Gerwig’s Barbie is something I’m eyeing heavily as an Oscar contender due to both her history with The Academy and their recent embrace of socially topical genre films. And I also agree with many others that Celine Song’s Past Lives – which made a splash at this year’s Sundance Film Festival – will show up in a major way this season. But that’s enough of an introduction for now; chances are, if you’re reading this, you’re as obsessed with awards season as I am and already have some “extremely early Oscar predictions of your own,” so without further ado, scroll through these lists and see where my head is at as of March 2023, and then let me know how we compare.
BEST PICTURE
Barbie (Warner Bros.)
The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
The Holdovers (Focus Features)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)
Maestro (Netflix)
Oppenheimer (Universal)
Past Lives (A24)
Saltburn (Amazon/UAR)
Untitled Bob Marley Biopic (Paramount)
ALT: May December (TBD)
BEST DIRECTOR
Emerald Fennell – Saltburn (Amazon/UAR)
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal)
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)
Celine Song – Past Lives (A24)
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
ALT: Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros.)
BEST ACTOR
Kingsley Ben-Adir – Untitled Bob Marley Biopic (Paramount)
Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix)
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)
Barry Keoghan – Saltburn (Amazon/UAR)
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Universal)
ALT: Jonathan Majors – Magazine Dreams (Searchlight)
BEST ACTRESS
Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Greta Lee – Past Lives (A24)
Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix)
Margot Robbie – Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Kate Winslet – Lee (TBD)
ALT: Natalie Portman – May December (TBD)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)
Colman Domingo – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros.)
John Magaro – Past Lives (A24)
Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)
ALT: Jeremy Allen White – The Iron Claw (A24)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)
Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Lashana Lynch – Untitled Bob Marley Biopic (Paramount)
Rosamund Pike – Saltburn (Amazon/UAR)
ALT: Julianne Moore – May December (TBD)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Zach Baylin and Reinaldo Marcus Green – Untitled Bob Marley Biopic (Paramount)
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer – Maestro (Netflix)
Emerald Fennell – Saltburn (Amazon/UAR)
David Hemingson – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
Celine Song – Past Lives (A24)
ALT: Samy Burch – May December (TBD)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Tony McNamara – Poor Things (Searchlight)
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal)
Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple TV+)
Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts, and Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
ALT: Marcus Gardley – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
BELOW-THE-LINE PREDICTIONS
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: How Do You Live? (Toho)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Beyond Utopia (TBD)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Monster (TBD)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Hoyte van Hoytema – Oppenheimer (Universal)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Jacqueline Durran – Barbie (Warner Bros.)
BEST FILM EDITING: Joe Walker – Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Kazu Hiro – Maestro (Netflix)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer – Barbie (Warner Bros.)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Thomas Newman – Elemental (Disney/Pixar)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “TBD” – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
BEST SOUND: Oppenheimer (Universal)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
