Zoë’s Oscar Predictions – October 14th

Though there weren’t too many new developments in the Oscar world this week, we do have two major stories to talk about: the Women Talking trailer, which gave us our first look at Sarah Polley’s critically acclaimed fall festival hit, and the She Said reactions, after Maria Schrader’s #MeToo movie had its premiere at NYFF last night. So, without further ado… let’s dive in.

To say it simply, the Women Talking trailer is nothing short of stunning. Sarah Polley’s delicate direction is a perfect fit for Luc Montpellier’s lush cinematography, while Hildur Guðnadóttir’s stirring score additionally complements the poignancy of the piece. As expected, the entire ensemble looks exceptional, but for me, Claire Foy was undoubtedly the standout of this first look (with the moving Rooney Mara – who I’m hearing could be campaigned lead – a close second). Foy’s ferocity as the steely Salome has made her an early Best Supporting Actress favorite this season, and it’s not hard to see why after watching her here (and in the accompanying featurette that MGM released). From reading reactions out of Telluride and TIFF and also seeing some of the material myself, I do believe Foy will be the best shot Women Talking has at a Best Supporting Actress win this year, but Jessie Buckley still seems like a strong contender for a co-nomination. I’ll be seeing the film next Friday and will be able to give a more thorough analysis of its chances (from my perspective) then.

And the only other big development this week came from She Said‘s world premiere at the New York Film Festival, where it was warmly – if not rapturously – received. Repping a 76% on Rotten Tomatoes at the moment (with a 7.4/10 average rating) and a 72 on Metacritic, it’s unlikely that She Said is going to be winning any major critics awards this year, but the film is well-liked – and widely accessible – enough to still be a solid contender on the industry awards circuit, especially for its timely story. Sometimes, that’s all it takes – and it helps that this story is something that the voters are so (unfortunately) familiar with, which could increase the urgency to honor the film. I believe it’s best shot at a nomination is in Best Adapted Screenplay (due to both the emptiness of that field and that being the strongest part of She Said as a picture), but I do think that, in a field of ten, it can still make a play for Best Picture beyond that. While we have yet to hear category confirmations for Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan, there remains chatter that Mulligan will be ran supporting, and I think she’ll be a real threat for a nom there, especially if the film does break into Best Picture. I’ll have her in an out for the next few weeks (she’s out for now), but she’s one to keep our eye on.

And that’s all for this week, but look forward to next Friday, when I’ll be giving my in-depth opinions on the awards chances of the aforementioned Women Talking and The Banshees of Inisherin!

BEST PICTURE

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

3. Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

4. Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

5. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

7. TÁR (Focus Features)

8. The Whale (A24) (+2)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

10. She Said (Universal Pictures) (-2)

ALTERNATES:

11. Triangle of Sadness (NEON)

12. The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) (+2)

13. Elvis (Warner Bros.) (-1)

14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) (-1)

15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

16. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

17. Till (UAR/Orion)

18. Decision to Leave (MUBI)

19. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

20. Armageddon Time (Focus Features)

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

2. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

3. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

4. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features)

5. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) (+1)

ALTERNATES:

6. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) (-1)

7. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

8. Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI)

9. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

10. Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) (NEW)

BEST ACTOR

1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24)

2. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

3. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

4. Hugh Jackman – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)

5. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)

ALTERNATES:

6. Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

7. Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

8. Jeremy Pope – The Inspection (A24)

9. Adam Driver – White Noise (Netflix)

10. Will Smith – Emancipation (Apple TV+)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features)

2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

3. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (UAR/Orion)

4. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. Olivia Colman – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) (+2)

ALTERNATES:

6. Viola Davis – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)

7. Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony Pictures Releasing) (-2)

8. Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Searchlight Pictures)

9. Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway (Apple TV+)

10. Zoe Kazan – She Said (Universal Pictures)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

3. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

4. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

ALTERNATES:

6. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

7. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

8. Micheal Ward – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

9. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple TV+)

10. Jeremy Strong – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Margot Robbie – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

2. Claire Foy – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

3. Jessie Buckley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

4. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (A24) (+1)

5. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) (+1)

ALTERNATES:

6. Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures) (-2)

7. Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)

8. Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

9. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

10. Nina Hoss – TÁR (Focus Features)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

3. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

4. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)

5. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features)

ALTERNATES:

6. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

7. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI)

8. Sam Mendes – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

9. James Gray – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)

10. Billy Eichner and Nicholas Stoller – Bros (Universal Pictures)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

2. Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale (A24) (+2)

3. Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

4. Rebecca Lenkiewicz – She Said (Universal Pictures) (-2)

5. Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix)

ALTERNATES:

6. Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

7. Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, and Michael Reilly – Till (UAR/Orion)

8. Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson, and Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

9. Kazuo Ishiguro – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)

10. David Kajganich – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Russell Carpenter – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

2. Linus Sandgren – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

3. Roger Deakins – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

4. Janusz Kamiński – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

ALTERNATES:

6. Darius Khondji – BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)

7. Greig Fraser – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

8. Claudio Miranda – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

9. Ben Davis – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

10. Autumn Durald Arkapaw – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Mary Zophres – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

2. Catherine Martin – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

3. Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

4. Mark Bridges – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. Gersha Phillips – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)

ALTERNATES:

6. Jenny Beavan – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features)

7. Shirley Kurata – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

8. Arianne Phillips – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros.)

9. Albert Wolsky – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)

10. Alexandra Byrne – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

3. Tom Cross – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

4. Sarah Broshar – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

ALTERNATES:

6. Sven Budelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

7. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, and Stephen E. Rivkin – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

8. Roslyn Kalloo – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

9. Bob Ducsay – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

10. Monika Willi – TÁR (Focus Features)

BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING

1. TBD – The Whale (A24)

2. TBD – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

3. TBD – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

4. TBD – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

5. TBD – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

ALTERNATES:

6. TBD – Blonde (Netflix)

7. TBD – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

8. TBD – X (A24)

9. TBD – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)

10. TBD – Thor: Love and Thunder (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. John Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

2. Justin Hurwitz – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

3. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

4. Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

5. Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

ALTERNATES:

6. Simon Franglen – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

7. Michael Giacchino – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

8. Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

9. Volker Bertelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

10. Rob Simonsen – The Whale (A24)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

2. “TBD” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

3. “Naatu Naatu” – RRR (Sarigama Cinemas)

4. “Nobody Like U” – Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation)

5. “Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman (Samuel Goldwyn Films)

ALTERNATES:

6. “New Body Rhumba” – White Noise (Netflix)

7. “Heartbeat” – Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (Sony Pictures Releasing)

8. “Stand Up” – Till (UAR/Orion)

9. “This Is A Life” – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

10. “On My Way” – Marry Me (Universal Pictures)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Florencia Martin (Production Design) and Anthony Carlino (Set Decoration) – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

2. Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (Production Design) and Vanessa Cole (Set Decoration) – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

3. Hannah Beachler (Production Design) and Lisa K. Sessions (Set Decoration) – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

4. Rick Carter (Production Design) and Karen O’Hara (Set Decoration) – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. Catherine Martin (Production Design) and Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration) – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

ALTERNATES:

6. Christian M. Goldbeck (Production Design) and Ernestine Hipper (Set Decoration) – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

7. Akin McKenzie (Production Design) and TBD (Set Decoration) – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)

8. Mark Tildesley (Production Design) and Patricia Cuccia (Set Decoration) – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

9. Rick Heinrichs (Production Design) and Elli Griff (Set Decoration) – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

10. Jason Kisvarday (Production Design) and Kelsi Ephraim (Set Decoration) – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

BEST SOUND

1. TBD – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

2. TBD – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

3. TBD – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

4. TBD – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

5. TBD – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

ALTERNATES:

6. TBD – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

7. TBD – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

8. TBD – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

9. TBD – Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios/MGM)

10. TBD – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. TBD – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

2. TBD – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

3. TBD – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

4. TBD – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

5. TBD – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

ALTERNATES:

6. TBD – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

7. TBD – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

8. TBD – Nope (Universal Pictures)

9. TBD – Thor: Love and Thunder (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

10. TBD – Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM/UAR)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

2. Strange World (Walt Disney/Walt Disney Animation)

3. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation)

4. My Father’s Dragon (Netflix)

5. The Bad Guys (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation)

ALTERNATES:

6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)

7. The Sea Beast (Netflix)

8. Wendell & Wild (Netflix)

9. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation)

10. Lightyear (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Navalny (Warner Bros.)

2. Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/NEON)

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON)

4. Descendant (Netflix)

5. Moonage Daydream (NEON)

ALTERNATES:

6. Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios)

7. Sr. (Netflix)

8. Sidney (Apple TV+)

9. The Territory (National Geographic Documentary Films)

10. Black Ice (Elevation Pictures)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – Germany

2. Decision to Leave (MUBI) – South Korea

3. Close (A24) – Belgium

4. BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) – Mexico

5. Saint Omer (TBD) – France

ALTERNATES:

6. Klondike (TBD) – Ukraine

7. Holy Spider (Utopia) – Denmark

8. Argentina, 1985 (TBD) – Argentina

9. EO (TBD) – Poland

10. Boy from Heaven (TBD) – Sweden

WIN/NOMINATION TALLIES

Taking into account all of my present predictions, this is what I’m seeing for the prospective wins and nominations for this awards season’s hottest titles:

• The Fabelmans (2 wins/11 nominations)
  • Best Picture
  • Best Director
  • Best Actress
  • Best Supporting Actor
  • Best Supporting Actor
  • Best Original Screenplay
  • Best Cinematography
  • Best Costume Design
  • Best Film Editing
  • Best Original Score
  • Best Production Design
• Babylon (3 wins/11 nominations)
  • Best Picture
  • Best Director
  • Best Supporting Actor
  • Best Supporting Actress
  • Best Cinematography
  • Best Costume Design
  • Best Film Editing
  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling
  • Best Original Score
  • Best Production Design
  • Best Sound
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (4 wins/7 nominations)
  • Best Picture
  • Best Director
  • Best Actress
  • Best Supporting Actor
  • Best Original Screenplay
  • Best Film Editing
  • Best Visual Effects
• Women Talking (1 win/6 nominations)
  • Best Picture
  • Best Director
  • Best Supporting Actress
  • Best Supporting Actress
  • Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Best Original Score
• Top Gun: Maverick (2 wins/5 nominations)
  • Best Picture
  • Best Film Editing
  • Best Original Song
  • Best Sound
  • Best Visual Effects
• The Whale (2 wins/5 nominations)
  • Best Picture
  • Best Actor
  • Best Supporting Actress
  • Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling
• Avatar: The Way of Water (2 wins/5 nominations)
  • Best Picture
  • Best Cinematography
  • Best Production Design
  • Best Sound
  • Best Visual Effects
• Elvis (0 wins/5 nominations)
  • Best Actor
  • Best Costume Design
  • Best Film Editing
  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling
  • Best Production Design
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (0 wins/5 nominations)
  • Best Costume Design
  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling
  • Best Original Song
  • Best Production Design
  • Best Visual Effects
• TÁR (1 win/4 nominations)
  • Best Picture
  • Best Director
  • Best Actress
  • Best Original Screenplay
• Empire of Light (0 wins/3 nominations)
  • Best Actress
  • Best Cinematography
  • Best Original Score
• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (1 win/3 nominations)
  • Best Animated Feature
  • Best Original Score
  • Best Visual Effects
• All Quiet on the Western Front (1 win/3 nominations)
  • Best Cinematography
  • Best International Feature Film
  • Best Sound
• She Said (0 wins/2 nominations)
  • Best Picture
  • Best Adapted Screenplay
• The Batman (0 wins/2 nominations)
  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling
  • Best Sound
• Turning Red (0 wins/2 nominations)
  • Best Animated Feature
  • Best Original Song
• The Son (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Actor
• Living (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Actor
• Till (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Actress
• Triangle of Sadness (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Original Screenplay
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay
• White Noise (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay
• The Woman King (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Costume Design
• RRR (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Original Song
• Tell It Like a Woman (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Original Song
• Strange World (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Animated Feature
• My Father’s Dragon (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Animated Feature
• The Bad Guys (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Animated Feature
• Navalny (1 win/1 nomination)
  • Best Documentary Feature
• Fire of Love (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Documentary Feature
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Documentary Feature
• Descendant (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Documentary Feature
• Moonage Daydream (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best Documentary Feature
• Decision to Leave (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best International Feature Film
• Close (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best International Feature Film
• BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best International Feature Film
• Saint Omer (0 wins/1 nomination)
  • Best International Feature Film