Zoë’s Oscar Predictions – September 23rd

What a difference a week can make, huh?

I already discussed this Wednesday’s major Oscar shake-up – Michelle Williams’ mind-boggling move from the Best Supporting Actress category to Best Actress – in a separate piece, but there’s still a lot more to dig into. Namely, can Michelle Williams contend for the win in her new category as well? Or will Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett put up too much of a fight? It’s too early to say, but here’s where I’m settling for the time being: I think it’s gonna be the battle of the Michelles. I know a lot of pundits are sticking with Cate Blanchett right now – which makes sense, as the recent Volpi Cup winner has received non-stop raves since TÁR premiered on the festival circuit – but I remain skeptical for two reasons. One, let’s not underestimate how divisive TÁR (a very cold and coarse film) could be, and two, we have to acknowledge that Blanchett is not only a former Oscar winner, but a former two-time Oscar winner. Sure, you can point to Frances McDormand and say “that doesn’t matter” (I’ll counter by saying that the 2020 Best Actress race is a massive anomaly for MANY reasons), but as we saw last year with Jessica Chastain, being “overdue” can certainly sway the race in your favor when your closest competitors (Penélope Cruz and Nicole Kidman, in her instance) have already had their “time to shine” and now it’s “your turn.”

And frankly, both Yeoh and Williams have MASSIVE “overdue” narratives that could be impossible to ignore. For Yeoh, it’s the fact that she hasn’t even been nominated for an Oscar once in her legendary career (despite coming close with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), and this may be the best chance she’s ever had – and may ever get – for a nom and a win. For Williams, it’s the fact that this will be her fifth nomination, and after turning in tremendous work for decades, it truly feels like it’s “her moment” to be anointed with an Academy Award. In the end, I think the contender from the film that has the better chance in Best Picture will prevail, and right now, since I assume that to be Everything Everywhere All at Once, I’m gonna put Yeoh first and see how that feels. (Plus, we have to admit that, given that Williams’ role is technically supporting, she’s going to to be facing an uphill battle for a Best Actress win no matter how overdue she is – especially going up against someone like Yeoh who is in almost every frame of her film, with EEAAO also essentially doubling as a two and a half hour tribute to the actress, reminding audiences of all she’s given to cinema in her 40+ years in the industry).

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Now, you might be wondering what’s happened to Margot Robbie, who has been my Best Actress frontrunner since my first predictions of the season. Well, once it was announced that Michelle Williams had evacuated the Best Supporting Actress category, she left a massive opening for a new frontrunner to emerge, but it’s proved difficult for pundits to suss out who that new frontrunner is, considering that, before Williams left, we hadn’t really given any thought to the “runner-up.” In fact, most of the conversation surrounding the other contenders concerned their chances for nominations, not wins. There are a lot of compelling candidates who can crack the line-up now in Williams’ absence (Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All at Once, Janelle Monáe for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story, Sadie Sink for The Whale, etc.) but few have the “sure-thing” winning narrative that Williams did – which makes things really interesting. Most people have simply moved everyone in their Best Supporting Actress predictions “up one,” which means that many likely have Claire Foy or Jessie Buckley at #1 now for Women Talking, but it still remains to be seen who becomes the industry’s MVP from that movie, and who the campaign will prioritize above all others. Given that everyone seems to have a different “standout” (though most agree that Foy probably has the most obvious “Oscar scenes”), it could be tricky for support to coalesce around one contender only.

And this is where I think Robbie – and Paramount – could make a play for the win, if they start getting savvy with their campaigning early. Initially, this “Margot Robbie is going Supporting for Babylon” belief was no more than a Film Twitter theory, but I have heard that there are no final decisions that have been made yet regarding category placements for the film, and everything is on the table (including running every actor except for Diego Calva – the story’s very obvious central character/lead – as supporting). Given that most assume that Brad Pitt will be put in Supporting Actor since Calva will be campaigned for Lead Actor, it stands to reason that Robbie could as well (even though there isn’t another actor “above” her as there is for Pitt) – by all accounts, she has similar screen time to Pitt and similarly significant storylines, while still ranking below Calva in terms of the true “lead” of this tall tale. The better way to describe her than a true “lead” or “supporting” character is perhaps as the “female lead” – this movie will be Manny’s (Calva’s character’s) story through and through, but Robbie does have the most prominent part for an actress. However, the best comparison I can make to a potential Robbie campaign in Supporting is Viola Davis’ for Fences – it’s an incredibly significant part to the story that features at the forefront of the narrative, but there are also key moments where they’re AWOL (Robbie will take a backseat in Babylon‘s third act), and at the end of the day, these films belong to Calva and Washington.

Margot Robbie in Babylon

But, make no mistake about it – a Robbie campaign in Supporting would still be borderline category fraud (much as Davis’ campaign was) even if she is – as I’ve heard – “borderline between lead and supporting.” Let’s be clear though – for as good as Robbie is said to be in Babylon (and anyone who’s read the script can attest to the fact that she certainly has tremendously meaty material to tear into), her chances to win in Lead are dwindling by the day now that it’s looking to be a three-horse race between Yeoh, Williams, and Blanchett, and that competition could be too significant for Robbie to crash (not to mention the fact that, because Babylon is premiering so late, she’ll be fighting tooth and nail for a nom anyway, since the category is already filling up with the likes of Empire of Light‘s Olivia Colman, The Woman King‘s Viola Davis, and Till’s Danielle Deadwyler beyond those top three, with the astounding-looking Naomi Ackie on the way as another late arrival for I Wanna Dance With Somebody). Those who spend their days on Twitter endlessly complaining about category fraud would be staunchly against Robbie positioning herself as “supporting,” but it’s not like the precedent isn’t there (the aforementioned Davis, along with Django Unchained‘s Christoph Waltz, The Danish Girl‘s Alicia Vikander, Green Book‘s Mahershala Ali, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood‘s Brad Pitt, and Judas and the Black Messiah‘s Daniel Kaluuya), so for strategical purposes alone, this is the wisest path for her.

Other odds and ends this week in the acting races (the only races that have received significant shake-ups):

  • I’ve bumped Austin Butler up in Best Actor, making him Brendan Fraser’s main challenger. At this point in time, I see Best Actor as a Fraser vs. Butler vs. Farrell race, with Farrell a distant third, but still lurking because he’s starring in a near-surefire Best Picture contender. However, it’s really going to come down to Fraser and Butler – the two actors with the biggest transformations (whose films are also the two frontrunners for Best Makeup and Hairstyling). I’m giving the Fraser the edge right now because a) he has that undeniable sympathetic comeback narrative, b) he’s been around longer and many could feel like he’s “earned” this recognition more, and c) I have his film winning the aforementioned Best Makeup/Hairstyling award. But we can’t deny that Butler gave one of the “biggest” – and most acclaimed – performances of the year and starred in a rare adult-targeted box office smash ($150 million domestic and $285 worldwide!) that is also Warner Bros.’ only real Best Picture push this year – and has a decent chance of actually getting in.

Austin Butler in Elvis

  •  “Paul Dano, Judd Hirsch, or both?” is a question we’ll be asking ourselves all season in regards to The Fabelmans‘ Best Supporting Actor contenders, and, truth be told, I think it’s too soon to answer definitively. I have Hirsch right now (no matter how small his screentime, you can’t deny the way his monologue makes people feel), but there’s definitely room for Dano too, despite him having a more “muted” role emotionally, because he’ll be starring in a “top three” Best Picture player and is long overdue for his first nomination (he could take out Ben Whishaw for Women Talking – who I have in fifth, right now – if all the acting awards attention for that film centers around the ladies).
  • I’ve added both Thuso Mbedu and Lashana Lynch to my Best Supporting Actress longlist for The Woman King after the film’s impressive box office overperformance and considerable critical acclaim. I think it could be tough for the two to compete with each other for consideration – Mbedu has the slightly bigger role, but Lynch is the scene-stealer – and I remain wary of The Woman King‘s chances overall and could also see a world where the previous nominated (and awarded) Viola Davis is the only actor from the cast who receives Oscar attention. Still, Mbedu and Lynch should absolutely be in the conversation – especially this far out – so let’s keep beating the drum.

BEST PICTURE

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

3. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

4. Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

5. TÁR (Focus Features)

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

8. The Whale (A24)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

ALTERNATES:

11. Triangle of Sadness (NEON)

12. Elvis (Warner Bros.)

13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) (+1)

14. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) (-1)

15. She Said (Universal Pictures)

16. The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) (+2)

17. Till (UAR/Orion) (NEW)

18. Decision to Leave (MUBI) (-2)

19. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) (-2)

20. Armageddon Time (Focus Features)

TBD.


BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle in Babylon

1. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

2. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

3. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

4. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features)

5. Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

ALTERNATES:

6. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

7. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) (+1)

8. Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI) (-1)

9. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

10. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (NEW)

TBD.


BEST ACTOR

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24)

2. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros.) (+1)

3. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) (-1)

4. Hugh Jackman – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)

5. Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

ALTERNATES:

6. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)

7. Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

8. Jeremy Pope – The Inspection (A24)

9. Adam Driver – White Noise (Netflix) (NEW)

10. Daniel Giménez Cacho – BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (NEW)

TBD.


BEST ACTRESS

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) (+2)

2. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) (NEW)

3. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) (-1)

4. Olivia Colman – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

5. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (UAR/Orion) (+1)

ALTERNATES:

6. Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony Pictures Releasing) (-1)

7. Viola Davis – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)

8. Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Searchlight Pictures)

9. Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures)

10. Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway (Apple TV+) (NEW)

TBD.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

3. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

4. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

ALTERNATES:

6. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

7. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

8. Micheal Ward – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) (NEW)

9. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple TV+) (-1)

10. Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time (Focus Features) (-1)

TBD.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Margot Robbie in Babylon

1. Margot Robbie* – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) (NEW)

2. Claire Foy – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

3. Jessie Buckley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

4. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (A24)

5. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24)

ALTERNATES:

6. Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

7. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

8. Sadie Sink – The Whale (A24) (+2)

9. Thuso Mbedu – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) (NEW)

10. Lashana Lynch – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing) (NEW)

TBD.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, and Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

3. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

4. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

5. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features)

ALTERNATES:

6. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)

7. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI)

8. Sam Mendes – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

9. James Gray – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)

10. Cooper Raiff – Cha Cha Real Smooth (Apple TV+)

TBD.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The cast of Women Talking

1. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

2. Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale (A24)

3. Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

4. Edward Berger, Lesley Patterson, and Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

5. Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix)

ALTERNATES:

6. Rebecca Lenkiewicz – She Said (Universal Pictures) (+1)

7. Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) (-1)

8. Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, and Michael Reilly – Till (UAR/Orion) (+1)

9. Dana Stevens – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Classics) (+1)

10. Kazuo Ishiguro – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) (-2)

TBD.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Li Jun Li in Babylon

1. Linus Sandgren – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

2. Russell Carpenter – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

3. Roger Deakins – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

4. Janusz Kamiński – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

ALTERNATES:

6. Darius Khondji – BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)

7. Greig Fraser – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

8. Autumn Durald Arkapaw – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

9. Claudio Miranda – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

10. Ben Davis – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

TBD.


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Diego Calva and Jean Smart in Babylon

1. Mary Zophres – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

2. Catherine Martin – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

3. Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

4. Mark Bridges – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. Gersha Phillips – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)

ALTERNATES:

6. Jenny Beavan – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features)

7. Shirley Kurata – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

8. Arianne Phillips – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros.)

9. Albert Wolsky – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)

10. Alexandra Byrne – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

TBD.


BEST FILM EDITING

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

2. Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

3. Tom Cross – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

4. Sarah Broshar – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

5. Sven Budelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

ALTERNATES:

6. Roslyn Kalloo – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

7. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, and Stephen E. Rivkin – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

8. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

9. Bob Ducsay – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

10. Monika Willi – TÁR (Focus Features)

TBD.


BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

1. TBD – The Whale (A24)

2. TBD – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

3. TBD – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

4. TBD – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

5. TBD – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

ALTERNATES:

6. TBD – Blonde (Netflix)

7. TBD – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)

8. TBD – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

9. TBD – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

10. TBD – The Northman (Focus Features)

TBD.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Justin Hurwitz holding his Oscars

1. Justin Hurwitz – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

2. John Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

3. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

4. Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)

5. Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

ALTERNATES:

6. Hildur Guðnadóttir – TÁR (Focus Features)

7. Simon Franglen – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

8. Michael Giacchino – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

9. Rob Simonsen – The Whale (A24)

10. Volker Bertelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

TBD.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Lady Gaga singing "Hold My Hand"

1. “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

2. “TBD” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

3. “Naatu Naatu” – RRR (Sarigama Cinemas)

4. “Nobody Like U” – Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation)

5. “Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman (Samuel Goldwyn Films)

ALTERNATES:

6. “Top of the World” – Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (Sony Pictures Releasing)

7. “New Body Rhumba” – White Noise (Netflix)

8. “This Is A Life” – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

9. “On My Way” – Marry Me (Universal Pictures)

10. “Sunny Side Up Summer” – The Bob’s Burgers Movie (20th Century Studios)

TBD.


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Margot Robbie and the cast of Babylon in Babylon

1. Florencia Martin (Production Design) and Anthony Carlino (Set Decoration) – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

2. Rick Carter (Production Design) and Karen O’Hara (Set Decoration) – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

3. Hannah Beachler (Production Design) and Lisa K. Sessions (Set Decoration) – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

4. Catherine Martin (Production Design) and Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration) – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

5. Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (Production Design) and Vanessa Cole (Set Decoration) – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

ALTERNATES:

6. Christian M. Goldbeck (Production Design) and Ernestine Hipper (Set Decoration) – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

7. Mark Tildesley (Production Design) and Patricia Cuccia (Set Decoration) – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

8. Akin McKenzie (Production Design) and TBD (Set Decoration) – The Woman King (Sony Pictures Releasing)

9. Katie Byron (Production Design) and Rachel Ferrara (Set Decoration) – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros.)

10. Jason Kisvarday (Production Design) and Kelsi Ephraim (Set Decoration) – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

TBD.


BEST SOUND

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

1. TBD – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

2. TBD – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

3. TBD – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

4. TBD – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

5. TBD – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

ALTERNATES:

6. TBD – Elvis (Warner Bros.)

7. TBD – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

8. TBD – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

9. TBD – Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios/MGM)

10. TBD – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

TBD.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Sam Worthington as Jake Sully in Avatar: The Way of Water

1. TBD – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

2. TBD – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

3. TBD – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)

4. TBD – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

5. TBD – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

ALTERNATES:

6. TBD – The Batman (Warner Bros.)

7. TBD – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

8. TBD – Nope (Universal Pictures)

9. TBD – Thor: Love and Thunder (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios)

10. TBD – Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM/UAR)

TBD.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)

2. Strange World (Walt Disney/Walt Disney Animation)

3. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation)

4. Wendell & Wild (Netflix)

5. The Bad Guys (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation)

ALTERNATES:

6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)

7. The Sea Beast (Netflix)

8. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation)

9. Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood (Netflix)

10. Lightyear (Walt Disney/Pixar Animation)

TBD.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Navalny

1. Navalny (Warner Bros.) (+2)

2. Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/NEON) (-1)

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) (-1)

4. Descendant (Netflix)

5. Moonage Daydream (NEON)

ALTERNATES:

6. Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios)

7. Sidney (Apple TV+)

8. The Territory (National Geographic Documentary Films)

9. Riotsville, USA (Magnolia Pictures)

10. Last Flight Home (MTV Documentary Films)

TBD.


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

All Quiet on the Western Front

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – Germany

2. Decision to Leave (MUBI) – South Korea

3. Close (A24) – Belgium

4. BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) – Mexico

5. Saint Omer (TBD) – France (+1)

ALTERNATES:

6. Holy Spider (Utopia) – Denmark (+1)

7. The Eight Mountains (TBD) – Italy (+1)

8. Argentina, 1985 (TBD) – Argentina (+1)

9. EO (TBD) – Poland (+1)

10. Boy from Heaven (TBD) – Sweden (NEW)

TBD.


WIN/NOMINATION TALLIES

Taking into account all of my present predictions, this is what I’m seeing for the prospective wins and nominations for this awards season’s hottest titles:

  • Babylon (6 wins/13 nominations)
    • Best Picture
    • Best Director
    • Best Actor
    • Best Supporting Actor
    • Best Supporting Actress
    • Best Original Screenplay
    • Best Cinematography
    • Best Costume Design
    • Best Film Editing
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling
    • Best Original Score
    • Best Production Design
    • Best Sound
  • The Fabelmans (0 wins/10 nominations)
    • Best Picture
    • Best Director
    • Best Actress
    • Best Supporting Actor
    • Best Original Screenplay
    • Best Cinematography
    • Best Costume Design
    • Best Film Editing
    • Best Original Score
    • Best Production Design
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once (5 wins/7 nominations)
    • Best Picture
    • Best Director
    • Best Actress
    • Best Supporting Actor
    • Best Original Screenplay
    • Best Film Editing
    • Best Visual Effects
  • Women Talking (1 win/6 nominations)
    • Best Picture
    • Best Supporting Actor
    • Best Supporting Actress
    • Best Supporting Actress
    • Best Adapted Screenplay
    • Best Original Score
  • All Quiet on the Western Front (1 win/6 nominations)
    • Best Picture
    • Best Director
    • Best Adapted Screenplay
    • Best Cinematography
    • Best International Feature Film
    • Best Sound
  • The Whale (2 wins/5 nominations)
    • Best Picture
    • Best Actor
    • Best Supporting Actress
    • Best Adapted Screenplay
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling
  • Top Gun: Maverick (2 wins/5 nominations)
    • Best Picture
    • Best Film Editing
    • Best Original Song
    • Best Sound
    • Best Visual Effects
  • Avatar: The Way of Water (1 win/5 nominations)
    • Best Picture
    • Best Cinematography
    • Best Production Design
    • Best Sound
    • Best Visual Effects
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (0 wins/5 nominations)
    • Best Costume Design
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling
    • Best Original Song
    • Best Production Design
    • Best Visual Effects
  • TÁR (0 wins/4 nominations)
    • Best Picture
    • Best Director
    • Best Actress
    • Best Original Screenplay
  • Elvis (0 wins/4 nominations)
    • Best Actor
    • Best Costume Design
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling
    • Best Production Design
  • Empire of Light (0 wins/3 nominations)
    • Best Actress
    • Best Cinematography
    • Best Original Score
  • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (1 win/2 nominations)
    • Best Animated Feature
    • Best Original Score
  • The Batman (0 wins/2 nominations)
    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling
    • Best Sound
  • Turning Red (0 wins/2 nominations)
    • Best Animated Feature
    • Best Original Song
  • The Son (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Actor
  • Till (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Actress
  • Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay
  • White Noise (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Adapted Screenplay
  • The Woman King (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Costume Design
  • RRR (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Original Song
  • Tell It Like a Woman (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Original Song
  • Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Visual Effects
  • Strange World (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature
  • Wendell & Wild (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature
  • The Bad Guys (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Animated Feature
  • Navalny (1 win/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Fire of Love (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Descendant (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Moonage Daydream (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best Documentary Feature
  • Decision to Leave (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • Close (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
  • Saint Omer (0 wins/1 nomination)
    • Best International Feature Film
Written by
Though Zoë Rose Bryant has only worked in film criticism for a little under three years - turning a collegiate passion into a full-time career by writing for outlets such as Next Best Picture and Awards Watch - her captivation with cinema has been a lifelong fascination, appreciating film in all its varying forms, from horror movies to heartfelt romantic comedies and everything in between. Born and raised in Omaha, Nebraska, she made the move to Los Angeles in 2021 after graduating college and now spends her days keeping tabs on all things pop culture and attempting to attend every screening under the sun. As a trans critic, she also seeks to champion underrepresented voices in the LGBTQ+ community in film criticism and offer original insight on how gender and sexuality are explored in modern entertainment. You can find Zoë on Twitter, Instagram, and Letterboxd at @ZoeRoseBryant.

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