Zoë’s Post-Cannes 2024 Academy Awards Predictions

When’s the “best” time to get back into Oscar predicting after last year’s ceremony? Sure, a lot of us do some “extremely early Oscar predictions” for fun, but when do we actually have to start taking this stuff seriously again? Some would say it never ends, and we now live in awards season all year long (and maybe we always did…). Others will still wait until September, using the trifecta of Venice, Telluride, and TIFF to guide them back in the game. I typically fall on that side, and truth be told, I’m still enormously exhausted from last year’s contentious awards cycle (aren’t they always these days?), and even starting in September means you’ll be covering the race for seven months, so I’ve tried to hold out as long as possible. But this year’s Cannes Film Festival – and all the potential awards behemoths that premiered there – caused me to catch the “Oscar bug” early yet again, so here I am with my first official 2024 Academy Awards predictions of this season, even though nothing is remotely set in stone at this stage and this is all a hazy guess at best.

The biggest title to come out of Cannes is none other than Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, which is already rocking a 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 91 on Metacritic. This has been the early 2024 Best Picture frontrunner ever since it was pushed back a year, and I’m not straying from that belief just yet. I do doubt that this actually takes the top prize in the end (never go with the early frontrunner – just ask Steven Spielberg and The Fabelmans), but for now, nothing is jumping out as a clear alternative. The next film I have my eye on is another Cannes premiere, and that’s Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest. A24’s grueling Holocaust drama came quite close to winning the Palme d’Or, and it could very well be the most critically acclaimed movie of the year when all is said and done, starting at a 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 98 on Metacritic. It might be too tough to stomach for some, preventing it from becoming a true Best Picture challenger, but with critics in its corner, the sky could be the limit.

The other major Cannes debut that caught my attention is obviously Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall, which took home the Palme d’Or after receiving raves all week long and launching overdue fave of Toni Erdmann fame Sandra Hüller into the Best Actress race. But can it go for more? I certainly think so. NEON knows what they’re doing – especially with indie and international titles (look at what they pulled off with Triangle of Sadness last year) – and the reviews are through the roof so far (a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 88 on Metacritic). Beyond Hüller, I would watch out for this in Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and, yes, Best Picture too, especially when taking the international voting contingent into account. The last Cannes premiere I thought to discuss as an above-the-line contender was Todd Haynes’ May December, which Netflix picked up and will no doubt push hard. Its tonal uniqueness might prevent it from being a top-tier contender, but the reviews are there (an 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 81 on Metacritic), and Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton will undoubtedly factor into the Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Supporting Actor races (while the sharp script could make an impression, too).

Other odds and ends include the recent trailer for The Color Purple and the main trailer for Barbie, both of which look brilliant and give Warner Bros. two more major above-the-line and below-the-line contenders alongside the already enormously anticipated Dune: Part Two. Past Lives also debuts in limited release this week (still sporting a swanky 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 95 on Metacritic), and I have full faith it’ll be remembered by the end of the year with this kind of praise and passion. And since that about sums up “where things are right now,” I’ll stop typing and just get right to the good stuff. Here are my predictions for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay, with rankings of what I believe to be the top ten contenders in each category at this point in time.

BEST PICTURE

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures/Apple TV+)
2. The Zone of Interest (A24)
3. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
4. The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
5. Oppenheimer (Universal)
6. The Holdovers (Focus Features)
7. Past Lives (A24)
8. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
9. Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)

ALT: Maestro (Netflix), May December (Netflix), Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures/Apple TV+)
2. Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24)
3. Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
4. Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal)
5. Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
6. Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
7. Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros.)
8. Celine Song – Past Lives (A24)
9. Emerald Fennell – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
10. Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features)

ALT: Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix), Todd Haynes – May December (Netflix), Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
2. Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix)
3. Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
4. Margot Robbie – Barbie (Warner Bros.)
5. Greta Lee – Past Lives (A24)
6. Natalie Portman – May December (Netflix)
7. Kate Winslet – Lee (TBD)
8. Emma Stone – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
9. Annette Bening – Nyad (Netflix)
10. Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)

ALT: Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One (Focus Features), Zendaya – Challengers (MGM), Trace Lysette – Monica (IFC Films)

BEST ACTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures/Apple TV+)
3. Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Universal)
4. Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
5. Barry Keoghan – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir- Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)
7. David Strathairn – A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. Anthony Hopkins – Freud’s Last Season (Sony Pictures Classics)
9. Colman Domingo – Rustin (Netflix)
10. Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)

ALT: Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon (Sony Pictures/Apple TV+), Adam Driver – Ferrari (STX Entertainment), Zac Efron – The Iron Claw (A24)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures/Apple TV+)
2. Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
3. Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
4. Rosamund Pike – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
5. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
6. Julianne Moore – May December (Netflix)
7. Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (Universal)
8. Lashana Lynch – Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)
9. Viola Davis – Air (Amazon Studios)
10. Jodie Foster – Nyad (Netflix)

ALT: Rebecca Ferguson – Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.), Florence Pugh – Oppenheimer (Universal), Lily James – The Iron Claw (A24)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros.)
2. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures/Apple TV+)
3. John Magaro – Past Lives (A24)
4. Colman Domingo – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
5. Teo Yoo – Past Lives (A24)
6. Charles Melton – May December (Netflix)
7. Austin Butler – Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
8. Matt Damon – Oppenheimer (Universal)
9. Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures/Apple TV+)
10. Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal)

ALT: Josh O’Connor – Challengers (MGM), Jeremy Allen White – The Iron Claw (A24), Jacob Elordi – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Past Lives (A24)
2. The Holdovers (Focus Features)
3. Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
5. May December (Netflix)
6. Maestro (Netflix)
7. Asteroid City (Focus Features)
8. Air (Amazon Studios)
9. Drive-Away Dolls (Focus Features)
10. Problemista (A24)

ALT: Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures), Challengers (MGM), Fair Play (Netflix)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures/Apple TV+)
2. The Zone of Interest (A24)
3. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
4. Oppenheimer (Universal)
5. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
6. The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
7. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
8. Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
9. The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
10. The Killer (Netflix)

ALT: Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate), How Do You Live? (GKIDS), Ferrari (STX Entertainment)