With the 80th Golden Globes taking place tonight and guilds announcing nominations every single day, we’re absolutely in the thick of awards season now, and there’s no stopping this train until the middle of March. But today, I want to focus on the three largest guilds that are set to announce their nominations in the coming days, which are the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the Directors Guild of America (DGA) – with both announcing on Wednesday, January 11th – and the Producers Guild of America (PGA) – which reveal its nominations on Thursday, January 12th. Given that the actors, directors, and producers make up three of the biggest branches in The Academy, we have to pay a lot of attention to which contenders they choose to highlight and uplift, as they have the power to alter momentum massively. So predicting nominations for these guilds not only requires predicting their tastes specifically, but also, where you think the race this season is going overall. So, without further ado, let’s get into it.
2023 SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Woman King
ALT: Top Gun: Maverick
NOTE: Every year, there’s an “obvious” nominee that misses out, either because the ensemble isn’t as large as others in contention, or SAG goes with a more “populist” pick (The Favourite, Marriage Story, The Power of the Dog, etc.). I’m predicting that to be The Banshees of Inisherin, though it could still surprise.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler – Elvis
Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Bill Nighy – Living
ALT: Jeremy Pope – The Inspection
NOTE: An easy five. Too easy? Perhaps Jeremy Pope, a fave from the theater community (and two-time Tony nominee) can upset Cruise and surprise the same way he did at the Golden Globes.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett – TÁR
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
ALT: Margot Robbie – Babylon
NOTE: Netflix usually does a good job campaigning to SAG, and this is a voting body that loves actors playing famous figures, so when you consider those two factors together, it looks like Ana de Armas – already a Golden Globe nominee, and an actress who recently surprisingly made the BAFTA longlist over bigger contenders – could get in here, possibly at the expense of Babylon‘s Margot Robbie and/or Till‘s Danielle Deadwyler.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks – Elvis
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse
ALT: Brad Pitt – Babylon
NOTE: The top three will show up – Quan (the frontrunner), Gleeson, and Keoghan – as should Eddie Redmayne (this year’s Jared Leto/Ben Affleck, a showy supporting turn from a big name who gets Golden Globe and SAG noms but nothing else), but I’m also eyeing Elvis‘ Tom Hanks, in a Jared Leto in House of Gucci way, aided by the fact that Elvis could get a SAG Ensemble nod and Austin Butler may be our Best Actor frontrunner. Meanwhile, the Fabelmans boys are looking a lot like last year’s Belfast boys.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness
Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
ALT: Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
NOTE: Still don’t see any Women Talking ladies showing up here – as they haven’t all season, and I’m also not at all confident in a SAG Ensemble nod for the film – but there remains a lot of movement in this category, so never say never. I do feel fairly comfortable with this five, but I would love to see Stephanie Hsu join Jamie Lee Curtis for EEAAO Supporting Actress representation.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
ALT: Avatar: The Way of Water
NOTE: I see the path for Avatar to score a nod here, but since the first one didn’t, the sequel could sit this one out too, depending on how they feel about the motion capture stunt work (Is it the same as what these other films have? Arguably yes, but some actors might not feel that way.). I’d also be overjoyed if RRR showed up here, though it’s a bit more of a longshot.
2023 DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures
James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water
Baz Luhrmann – Elvis
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
ALT: Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick
NOTE: This feels like an easy five. I want to fit Kosinski in there since Top Gun is such a major contender across-the-board everywhere else, but given that he’s far less of a “name” than these five – and hasn’t been prioritized in his film’s campaign the way they have – I’m leaving him off for now.
Outstanding Directorial Achievement of a First-Time Feature Film Director
Elegance Bratton – The Inspection
John Patton Ford – Emily the Criminal
Nikyatu Jusu – Nanny
Lila Neugebauer – Causeway
Charlotte Wells – Aftersun
ALT: Dean Fleischer Camp – Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
NOTE: This also felt like an easy five, though I do think Dean Fleischer Camp could really be circling a nomination too – I just didn’t feel confident enough to drop any of the directors above him, as even though we all know Charlotte Wells is winning this in a walk, the rest still feel fairly solid.
2023 PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
ALT: Women Talking
NOTE: I’ve felt good about seven films in the Best Picture race for a few weeks now – Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Fabelmans, TÁR, and Avatar: The Way of Water – and with its performance on shortlists and at guild awards (and extensive international support), All Quiet on the Western Front has quickly become #8 on my “safe” list. So, naturally, I had to include all of them here, since PGA usually aligns with the Oscar line-up with one or two exceptions. This year, I’m predicting those “one or two exceptions” to be two successful populist pictures, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and The Woman King, though if Babylon and/or Women Talking get in instead, this nod could save either of their campaigns.
