Zoë’s Predictions for the 2023 SAG, DGA, and PGA Awards

With the 80th Golden Globes taking place tonight and guilds announcing nominations every single day, we’re absolutely in the thick of awards season now, and there’s no stopping this train until the middle of March. But today, I want to focus on the three largest guilds that are set to announce their nominations in the coming days, which are the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the Directors Guild of America (DGA) – with both announcing on Wednesday, January 11th – and the Producers Guild of America (PGA) – which reveal its nominations on Thursday, January 12th. Given that the actors, directors, and producers make up three of the biggest branches in The Academy, we have to pay a lot of attention to which contenders they choose to highlight and uplift, as they have the power to alter momentum massively. So predicting nominations for these guilds not only requires predicting their tastes specifically, but also, where you think the race this season is going overall. So, without further ado, let’s get into it.

2023 SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, and Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

The Woman King

ALT: Top Gun: Maverick

NOTE: Every year, there’s an “obvious” nominee that misses out, either because the ensemble isn’t as large as others in contention, or SAG goes with a more “populist” pick (The FavouriteMarriage StoryThe Power of the Dog, etc.). I’m predicting that to be The Banshees of Inisherin, though it could still surprise.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler in Elvis

Austin Butler – Elvis

Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Bill Nighy – Living

ALT: Jeremy Pope – The Inspection

NOTE: An easy five. Too easy? Perhaps Jeremy Pope, a fave from the theater community (and two-time Tony nominee) can upset Cruise and surprise the same way he did at the Golden Globes.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Cate Blanchett – TÁR

Viola Davis – The Woman King

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

ALT: Margot Robbie – Babylon

NOTE: Netflix usually does a good job campaigning to SAG, and this is a voting body that loves actors playing famous figures, so when you consider those two factors together, it looks like Ana de Armas – already a Golden Globe nominee, and an actress who recently surprisingly made the BAFTA longlist over bigger contenders – could get in here, possibly at the expense of Babylon‘s Margot Robbie and/or Till‘s Danielle Deadwyler.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Tom Hanks – Elvis

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

ALT: Brad Pitt – Babylon

NOTE: The top three will show up – Quan (the frontrunner), Gleeson, and Keoghan – as should Eddie Redmayne (this year’s Jared Leto/Ben Affleck, a showy supporting turn from a big name who gets Golden Globe and SAG noms but nothing else), but I’m also eyeing Elvis‘ Tom Hanks, in a Jared Leto in House of Gucci way, aided by the fact that Elvis could get a SAG Ensemble nod and Austin Butler may be our Best Actor frontrunner. Meanwhile, the Fabelmans boys are looking a lot like last year’s Belfast boys.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness

Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

ALT: Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

NOTE: Still don’t see any Women Talking ladies showing up here – as they haven’t all season, and I’m also not at all confident in a SAG Ensemble nod for the film – but there remains a lot of movement in this category, so never say never. I do feel fairly comfortable with this five, but I would love to see Stephanie Hsu join Jamie Lee Curtis for EEAAO Supporting Actress representation.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

ALT: Avatar: The Way of Water

NOTE: I see the path for Avatar to score a nod here, but since the first one didn’t, the sequel could sit this one out too, depending on how they feel about the motion capture stunt work (Is it the same as what these other films have? Arguably yes, but some actors might not feel that way.). I’d also be overjoyed if RRR showed up here, though it’s a bit more of a longshot.

2023 DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures

The Daniels

James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water

Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

ALT: Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick

NOTE: This feels like an easy five. I want to fit Kosinski in there since Top Gun is such a major contender across-the-board everywhere else, but given that he’s far less of a “name” than these five – and hasn’t been prioritized in his film’s campaign the way they have – I’m leaving him off for now.

Outstanding Directorial Achievement of a First-Time Feature Film Director

Paul Mescal and Charlotte Wells for Aftersun

Elegance Bratton – The Inspection

John Patton Ford – Emily the Criminal

Nikyatu Jusu – Nanny

Lila Neugebauer – Causeway

Charlotte Wells – Aftersun

ALT: Dean Fleischer Camp – Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

NOTE: This also felt like an easy five, though I do think Dean Fleischer Camp could really be circling a nomination too – I just didn’t feel confident enough to drop any of the directors above him, as even though we all know Charlotte Wells is winning this in a walk, the rest still feel fairly solid.

2023 PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

TÁR

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

ALT: Women Talking

NOTE: I’ve felt good about seven films in the Best Picture race for a few weeks now – Everything Everywhere All at OnceTop Gun: MaverickThe Banshees of InisherinElvisThe FabelmansTÁR, and Avatar: The Way of Water – and with its performance on shortlists and at guild awards (and extensive international support), All Quiet on the Western Front has quickly become #8 on my “safe” list. So, naturally, I had to include all of them here, since PGA usually aligns with the Oscar line-up with one or two exceptions. This year, I’m predicting those “one or two exceptions” to be two successful populist pictures, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and The Woman King, though if Babylon and/or Women Talking get in instead, this nod could save either of their campaigns.

Written by
Though Zoë Rose Bryant has only worked in film criticism for a little under three years - turning a collegiate passion into a full-time career by writing for outlets such as Next Best Picture and Awards Watch - her captivation with cinema has been a lifelong fascination, appreciating film in all its varying forms, from horror movies to heartfelt romantic comedies and everything in between. Born and raised in Omaha, Nebraska, she made the move to Los Angeles in 2021 after graduating college and now spends her days keeping tabs on all things pop culture and attempting to attend every screening under the sun. As a trans critic, she also seeks to champion underrepresented voices in the LGBTQ+ community in film criticism and offer original insight on how gender and sexuality are explored in modern entertainment. You can find Zoë on Twitter, Instagram, and Letterboxd at @ZoeRoseBryant.

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