Box Office: ‘Moana’ Rules Over Quiet Post-Thanksgiving Weekend

"Moana" (2016) - Weekend Box Office

Disney’s ‘Moana’ Sails for Solid $28.4M 2nd Weekend

Moviegoing audiences appeared to be happy with the status quo this weekend. Disney’s latest animated feature, Moana, sailed once again to the top spot with an estimated $28.4 million.

With no major debuts this weekend, the Disney princess flick had no trouble continuing its stellar run at the box office. Down 49.9% from last weekend, Moana has grossed $120 million in 12 days. In fact, Moana’s sophomore drop was even better than Frozen (-53.1%), Tangled (-55.7%) and Toy Story 2 (-51.6%). Next weekend is expected to be a strong holdover for the Polynesian princess. Office Christmas Party and the expansion of political thriller, Miss Sloane are the only new contenders. Both are adult-oriented and neither will draw families away. Based on Disney’s other Thanksgiving family releases, Moana will probably drop about 33-35% next weekend. A run like Tangled or Toy Story 2 pushes the film over $250 million. If it survives Rogue One on December 16th and plays more like Frozen, $358 million is the ceiling. That’s more wishful thinking.

Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter spin-off, Fantastic Beasts continues to hold its own as well. In its third weekend, the wizard film made another $18.5 million over the weekend. Granted it fell 58.9% since Thanksgiving weekend, but that was to be expected. That’s on par with Harry Potter and Sorcerer’s Stone’s third weekend and slightly better than Goblet of Fire. Despite a weak debut out of the gate, Fantastic Beasts is playing like a November blockbuster more and more. A finish around Goblet of Fire pushes the spin-off over $240 million. And to think, a few weeks ago $200 million seemly unlikely.

The biggest surprise this week comes from Paramount. Its critically-acclaimed sci-fi thriller, Arrival, jumped two spots from the holiday weekend. The Amy Adams film dipped 36.3% from last weekend for another $7.3 million. After four weeks in theaters, Arrival has pulled in $73.1 million. Next weekend could keep the momentum going with another small drop. $80 million is practically a lock at this point. But with the holidays on the horizion, Arrival could go even higher.

Robert Zemeckis’ World War II romantic drama, Allied, wasn’t a major player over Thanksgiving weekend. Still, in its second weekend, the Brad Pitt film retained its fourth place spot. Allied pulled in another $7.1 million, bringing its 12-day total to $28.9 million. While, the film may struggle to find its way to $45-50 million, its no complete disaster like The Walk. It will only the second time in 25 years that one of Zemeckis’ films finishes under $80 million.

While Paramount’s Arrival rose two spots, Marvel’s Doctor Strange fell two spots this weekend. In his fifth frame, the Sorcerer Supreme conjured up another $6.5 million. Earlier in the week, Strange topped Thor: The Dark World domestically. Currently, Doctor Strange has grossed over $215 million. A finish around $230 million is still possible as holiday legs are nearly upon us.

Newcomers Incarnate and Believe failed to make an impact this weekend. Starring Aaron Eckhart, Incarnate pulled in $2.7 million. Faith-based Believe debuted with just over $600,000. Both films fell far short of my Friday predictions.

Note: These #’s are based on Sunday’s projections and can change with Monday’s actual #’s.

#1 – Moana (1)
$28.4 million / $120.0 million total

#2 – Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (2)
$18.5 million / $183.5 million total

#3 – Arrival (5)
$7.3 million / $73.1 million total

#4 – Allied (4)
$7.1 million  / $28.9 million total

#5 – Doctor Strange (3)
$6.5 million / $215.3 million total

Opening Next Week: Office Christmas Party, Miss Sloane (expanding)

Source: Box Office Mojo

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