Not Quite the End of Days for the X-Men
X-Men: Apocalypse continued its franchise’s 16-year streak of first place openers at the box office this Memorial Day weekend with an estimated $65 million debut. Over the course of the long holiday weekend, the ninth superhero mutant film grossed about $80 million.
After the breakout success of Deadpool ($132.4 millon) earlier this year and 2014’s X-Men: Days of Future Past ($90.8 million), X-Men: Apocalypse couldn’t match the last two films. There’s plenty of factors why a Memorial Day tentpole like Apocalypse is more on par with Thor ($65.7 million) and Captain America: The First Avenger ($65.1 million). A lackluster 49% score on Rotten Tomatoes surely didn’t help matters, almost scoring as low as the 38% for X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Plus sharing the holiday with Alice Through the Looking Glass ended up hurting both films over the weekend. Don’t expect X-Men: Apocalypse to crack $200 million by the end of its run. Disappointing, yes, but nowhere near a franchise killer.
Speaking of Alice Through the Looking Glass, the Disney sequel claimed second place with $27 million over the 3-day frame and over $34 million after the holiday weekend. Compared to the 2010, the Mia Wasikowska and Johnny Depp sequel has yet to pull in at least the first film’s opening day after four days. Like Apocalypse, Alice suffered from a heavily panned 30% score on Rotten Tomatoes. Memorial Day weekend hasn’t been too kind to Disney live-action flicks over the past few years. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time failed to ignite a franchise with $30.1 million debut in 2010. Last year’s Tomorrowland performed slightly better with a $33 million start, ultimately missing the century mark. Alice will attempt to flirt with $100 million by the end of its run, but don’t be shocked it falls short.
Dropping two spots to third, last week headliner, The Angry Birds Movie pulled in a bit under $19 million over the regular weekend frame with another $5 million on Memorial Day. Even without any animated competition, the Sony family film isn’t showing the legs Zootopia had a few months back. $100 million is a given at this point, but if it continues drops over 50%, there’s much life over the $125 million mark.
Also dropping another 50% this weekend to fourth place is Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War. The large drops continue to be alarming as the difference between Iron Man 3 and Civil War continues to shrink week to week. Civil War will undoubtedly be one of Marvel’s most frontloaded films to date. Despite praiseworthy reviews, the highly-discussed superhero fatigue is starting to set in. Deadpool continues to be the only superhero film in 2016 to sustain a leggy run at the box office. Batman v Superman has yet to crack a 2x multiplier after two months of release. $400 million might not happen for a few more weeks, but as its losing momentum in a crowded marketplace, $410-415 million could be Civil War’s ceiling.
Round out the charts this holiday weekend is Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising. The Universal comedy starring Seth Rogen and Rose Byrne fell overe 57% from last weekend. Grossing just over $9 million over the regular frame and another $2 million for the holiday, Neighbors 2 still has not passed the opening weekend of the original. A final run of $65 million seems to be in order.
X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass both debuted a bit below my $71 million and $43 million weekend predictions respectively.
Note: These #’s are based on Monday’s holiday projections and can change with Tuesday’s actual #’s.
#1 – X-Men: Apocalypse (NR)
$65.0 million / $80.0 million / $80.0 million total
#2 – Alice Through the Looking Glass (NR)
$27.0 million / $34.2 million / $34.2 million total
#3 – The Angry Birds Movie (1)
$18.8 million / $24.6 million / $72.3 million total
#4 – Captain America: Civil War (2)
$15.4 million / $19.7 million / $377.2 million total
#5 – Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (3)
$9.3 million / $11.4 million / $40.7 million total
Opening Next Week: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, Me Before You, Popstar
Source: Box Office Mojo