Well, here goes nothing.
After months of paying attention to film festival results, awards shows, and researching past Oscar nomination correlations, I have finally come up with my final nomination predictions for the 96th Oscars.
Oppenheimer is still the clear frontrunner to win Best Picture as of now. The Holdovers seems to be in second place now according to many. Poor Things is still holding strong though.
Recently, the PGA gave a big boost to Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest while BAFTA gave a boost to The Holdovers with each of their respective nominations. Meanwhile, Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon have seemed to dip a little in momentum. All of these films should do well on nomination morning.
The directing and acting branches are a mess of riches this year, which will cause some inevitable snubs. Unfortunately I believe this will cause female directors to get shut out of the director nominations yet again, though Justine Triet still has a good shot. Alexander Payne has seemed to sneek up for the fifth slot though.
I think people are underestimating Annette Bening for Best Actress for Nyad , Sterling K. Brown for Best Supporting Actor for American Fiction, and Andrew Haigh for Best Adapted Screenplay for All of Us Strangers. I believe all three of them will get in. Meanwhile, many are predicting Sandra Hüller for Best Actress for Anataomy of a Fall, but I think she will get snubbed there and instead get a Best Supporting Actress nomination for The Zone of Interest.
It’s nearly impossible to be right in every category. I feel mostly confident about my nomination predictions though. It will be exciting to see the way the nominations unfold when they are announced on Tuesday morning whether I am right or wrong.
*** indicates who I think will win in each category as of now. Of course, my winner predictions could change between the nominations announcement on Tuesday and the Oscars themselves in March. I will be making more winner prediction articles in the coming weeks.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
***Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Best Director
Alexander Payne – The Holdovers
***Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Best Actress
Annette Bening – Nyad
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
***Emma Stone – Poor Things
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Margot Robbie – Barbie
Best Actor
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
***Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
***Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest
Best Supporting Actor
Charles Melton – May December
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
***Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Best Adapted Screenplay
All of Us Strangers
***American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
***The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Best Cinematography
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
***Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Best Costume Design
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
***Poor Things
Best Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
Ferrari
Killers of the Flower Moon
***Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Production Design
***Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nuggets
Elemental
***Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
The Last Voyage of the Demeter
Maestro
***Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Best Sound
Ferrari
Maestro
Napoleon
***Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects
***The Creator
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Best Original Score
Elemental
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
***Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Original Song
“The Fire Inside” – Flamin’ Hot
***“I’m Just Ken” – Barbie
“It Never Went Away” – American Symphony
“Road to Freedom” – Rustin
“What Was I Made For?” – Barbie
Best Documentary Feature
American Symphony
Beyond Utopia
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Four Daughters
***20 Days in Mariupol
Best International Feature
Fallen Leaves – Finland
Society of the Snow – Spain
The Taste of Things – France
20 Days in Mariupol – Ukraine
***The Zone of Interest – United Kingdom
Best Animated Short Film
Humo (Smoke)
***Once Upon a Studio
27
WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Wild Summon
Best Live Action Short Film
Chat Mort (Dead Cat)
Invisible Border
The One Note Man
Red, White and Blue
***Yellow
Best Documentary Short Film
The ABCs of Book Banning
Camp Courage
***Deciding Vote
The Last Repair Shop
Last Song from Kabul
Total Nomination and Win Counts:
Oppenheimer – 11 nominations, winning 7
Poor Things – 9 nominations, winning 3
Killers of the Flower Moon – 9 nominations, winning 0
Barbie – 8 nominations, winning 2
Maestro – 7 nominations, winning 0
The Holdovers – 5 nominations, winning 3
The Zone of Interest – 5 nominations, winning 1
American Fiction – 4 nominations, winning 1
Anatomy of a Fall – 3 nominations, winning 0
The Color Purple – 3 nominations, winning 0
Napoleon – 3 nominations, winning 0
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – 2 nominations, winning 1
20 Days in Mariupol – 2 nominations, winning 1
Past Lives – 2 nominations, winning 0
Rustin – 2 nominations, winning 0
Ferrari – 2 nominations, winning 0
Society of the Snow – 2 nominations, winning 0
May December – 2 nominations, winning 0
Nyad – 2 nominations, winning 0
Elemental – 2 nominations, winning 0
American Symphony – 2 nominations, winning 0
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – 2 nominations, winning 0
The Creator – 1 nomination, winning 1
Once Upon a Studio – 1 nomination, winning 1
Yellow – 1 nomination, winning 1
Deciding Vote – 1 nomination, winning 1
All of Us Strangers – 1 nomination, winning 0
Saltburn – 1 nomination, winning 0
Flamin’ Hot – 1 nomination, winning 0
Golda – 1 nomination, winning 0
The Last Voyage of the Demeter – 1 nomination, winning 0
The Boy and the Heron – 1 nomination, winning 0
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nuggets – 1 nomination, winning 0
The Super Mario Bros. Movie – 1 nomination, winning 0
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – 1 nomination, winning 0
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One – 1 nomination, winning 0
Beyond Utopia – 1 nomination, winning 0
Bobi Wine: The People’s President – 1 nomination, winning 0
Four Daughters – 1 nomination, winning 0
Fallen Leaves – 1 nomination, winning 0
The Taste of Things – 1 nomination, winning 0
The Teachers’ Lounge – 1 nomination, winning 0
Humo – 1 nomination, winning 0
27 – 1 nomination, winning 0
WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko – 1 nomination, winning 0
Wild Summon – 1 nomination, winning 0
Chat Mort (Dead Cat) – 1 nomination, winning 0
Invisible Border – 1 nomination, winning 0
The One Note Man – 1 nomination, winning 0
Red, White and Blue – 1 nomination, winning 0
The ABCs of Book Banning – 1 nomination, winning 0
Camp Courage – 1 nomination, winning 0
The Last Repair Shop – 1 nomination, winning 0
Last Song from Kabul – 1 nomination, winning 0
