Awards season has slowed a little in October with the major festivals having passed and early voting for some critics bodies not happening until November. AFI Fest is happening right now though and keeping some of the films in the conversation. November, December, and January will be much busier for the season though.
Since my last predictions, The Life of Chuck has moved to a 2025 release. So that means for the first time in many years the TIFF People’s Choice winner won’t be competing at the Oscars. Supposedly Neon plans to push the film for awards next year though.
Blitz finally premiered in London earlier this month, and while most still think it will be a contender, many don’t see it as a potential winner in most categories. That changes a few of my winner predictions below as I was betting on it sight unseen between its ingredients and being a Steve McQueen film. It could gain more energy next month when it is released to the public though.
Gladiator II has had its first screenings and gained positive reviews. Many see Denzel Washington as a strong player in Supporting Actor now. We’ll see if it can keep up the momentum when it releases next month.
The only big question marks left at this time are A Complete Unknown and Nosferatu, which both don’t arrive until December. Some think Wicked might be a big player too, but I have less faith in it than those two aforementioned films, though it could crack into some crafts categories. I also believe The Substance and September 5 hype are just critic things and both won’t have much momentum with the major guilds and the Oscars.
As of now, this seems like a battle between The Brutalist and Anora for Best Picture, with Conclave and Emilia Perez both fighting for third place. I imagine the guilds favoring The Brutalist and Conclave, while critics will continue to go out for Anora and Emilia Perez. This could shake up some once different awards bodies start holding events though.
*** = my prediction for the winner in each category as of now.
TBD = to be determined.
Best Picture
Anora – Neon
Blitz – Apple Original Films
***The Brutalist – A24
A Complete Unknown – Searchlight Pictures
Conclave – Focus Features
Dune: Part Two – Warner Bros. Pictures
Emilia Pérez – Netflix
Gladiator II – Paramount Pictures
Nickel Boys – Amazon MGM Studios
Sing Sing – A24
Other Possibilities:
The Room Next Door – Sony Pictures Classics/Warner Bros. Pictures
Saturday Night – Sony Pictures Releasing
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Neon
Best Director
***Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Edward Berger – Conclave
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Mohammad Rasoulof – The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Sean Baker – Anora
Other Possibilities:
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two
Ridley Scott – Gladiator II
Steve McQueen – Blitz
Best Actress
Angelina Jolie – Maria
***Mikey Madison – Anora
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl
Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door
Other Possibilities:
Amy Adams – Nightbitch
Demi Moore – The Substance
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Best Actor
***Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Daniel Craig – Queer
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Other Possibilities:
Gabriel LaBelle – Saturday Night
Paul Mescal – Gladiator II
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
Best Supporting Actress
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
***Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
Zoe Saldana – Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
Elle Fanning – A Complete Unknown
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez
Best Supporting Actor
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II
***Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Stanley Tucci – Conclave
Other Possibilities:
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Mark Eydelshteyn – Anora
Best Original Screenplay
***Anora
The Brutalist
Challengers
A Real Pain
Saturday Night
Other Possibilities:
The Apprentice
Blitz
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown
***Conclave
Nickel Boys
The Room Next Door
Sing Sing
Other Possibilities:
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature
***Emilia Pérez – France
The Girl with the Needle – Denmark
I’m Still Here – Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Germany
Under the Volcano – Poland
Other Possibilities:
Grand Tour – Portugal
Kneecap – Ireland
Pedro Páramo – Mexico
Best Documentary Feature
The Brink of Dreams
Daughters
***No Other Land
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Sugarcane
Other Possibilities:
Dahomey
The Last of the Sea Women
A New Kind of Wilderness
Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
***The Wild Robot
Other Possibilities:
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Moana 2
The Most Precious of Cargoes
Best Cinematography
Blitz
***The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Other Possibilities:
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Maria
Best Editing
Anora
The Brutalist
***A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
Blitz
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Best Production Design
Blitz
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
***Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Other Possibilities:
Conclave
Joker: Folie à Deux
Wicked
Best Costume Design
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
***Gladiator II
Maria
Wicked
Other Possibilities:
The Brutalist
Blitz
Nosferatu
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Dune: Part Two
***Nosferatu
Sasquatch Sunset
Wicked
Other Possibilities:
Blitz
A Different Man
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Visual Effects
Deadpool & Wolverine
***Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Mufasa: The Lion King
Other Possibilities:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Twisters
Wicked
Best Sound
Blitz
***A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Gladiator II
Other Possibilities:
Conclave
Joker: Folie à Deux
Twisters
Best Original Score
Blitz
***The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
Saturday Night
Other Possibilities:
Challengers
Sing Sing
The Wild Robot
Best Original Song
“Winter’s Coat” – Blitz
***“El Mal” – Emilia Pérez
“We’re Back” – Moana 2
“Like a Bird” – Sing Sing
“The Journey” – Six Triple Eight
Other Possibilities:
“El Camino” – Emilia Pérez
TBD – Mufasa: The Lion King
“Piece by Piece” – Piece by Piece
Best Animated Short Film
An Almost Christmas Story
Bug Diner
Hurikán
***In the Shadow of the Cypress
Percebes
Other Possibilities:
The Brown Dog
Silent Panorama
Wander to Wonder
Best Live Action Short Film
***The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
The Masterpiece
An Orange from Jaffa
Ripe!
The Yellow
Other Possibilities:
Loser Baby
A Swim Lesson
An Urban Allegory
Best Documentary Short Film
Frank
Incident
***Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
One Good Reason
The Turnaround
Other Possibilities:
Alok
Remember, Broken Crayons Colour Too
Wrecked a Bunch of Cars, Had a Good Time
Total Nomination and Win Counts:
The Brutalist – 10 nominations, 6 wins
Conclave – 9 nominations, 1 win
Emilia Pérez – 8 nominations, 2 wins
Gladiator II – 7 nominations, 2 wins
Blitz – 7 nominations, 1 win
Dune: Part Two – 6 nominations, 1 win
Anora – 5 nominations, 2 wins
A Complete Unknown – 5 nominations, 2 wins
Sing Sing – 5 nominations, 0 wins
Nickel Boys – 4 nominations, 0 wins
Nosferatu – 2 nominations, 1 win
Maria – 2 nominations, 0 wins
A Real Pain – 2 nominations, 0 wins
The Room Next Door – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Saturday Night – 2 nominations, 0 wins
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Wicked – 2 nominations, 0 wins
The Wild Robot – 1 nomination, 1 win
No Other Land – 1 nomination, 1 win
In the Shadow of the Cypress – 1 nomination, 1 win
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent – 1 nomination, 1 win
Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World – 1 nomination, 1 win
The Outrun – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Babygirl – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Queer – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Piano Lesson – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Challengers – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Girl with the Needle – 1 nomination, 0 wins
I’m Still Here – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Under the Volcano – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Brink of Dreams – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Daughters – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Sugarcane – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Flow – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Inside Out 2 – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Memoir of a Snail – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Sasquatch Sunset – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Deadpool & Wolverine – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Mufasa: The Lion King – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Moana 2 – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Six Triple Eight – 1 nomination, 0 wins
An Almost Christmas Story – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Bug Diner – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Hurikán – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Percebes – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Masterpiece – 1 nomination, 0 wins
An Orange from Jaffa – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Ripe! – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Yellow – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Frank – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Incident – 1 nomination, 0 wins
One Good Reason – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Turnaround – 1 nomination, 0 wins
