DANIEL RESTER’S FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE 95TH ACADEMY AWARDS

It’s been a busy awards season but the big night is finally upon us. The 95th Academy Awards are this Sunday, March 12th. The Fabelmans started as an early frontrunner in the season after gaining steam at TIFF but is now expected by most predictors to go home empty-handed (which personally makes me sad as it was my favorite film of 2022). That just goes to show how much things can change as the various awards shows happen throughout the months. Everything Everywhere All at Once (a good but overrated film in my eyes) is now expected to win Best Picture after sweeping most guilds, though there is a slim chance All Quiet on the Western Front may win since it won big at BAFTA. Here are my predictions for who will win in each category, as well as who I think should win among the nominees and a film/person that I think should have been a nominee in each category but didn’t make it in.

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis 

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: The Fabelmans 

Should Have Been a Nominee: Close

The Daniels

Best Director

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Todd Field – Tár

Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Should Have Been a Nominee: Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick 

Best Actress

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

Cate Blanchett – Tár

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: Cate Blanchett – Tár

Should Win: Cate Blanchett – Tár

Should Have Been a Nominee: Mia Goth – Pearl

Austin Butler in Elvis

Best Actor

Austin Butler – Elvis

Bill Nighy – Living

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Will Win: Austin Butler – Elvis

Should Win: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Have Been a Nominee: Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans 

Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau – The Whale

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Win: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Have Been a Nominee: Nina Hoss – Tár

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actor

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Have Been a Nominee: Paul Dano – The Fabelmans 

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 

Living

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Have Been a Nominee: The Quiet Girl 

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Have Been a Nominee: Close

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Elvis

Empire of Light

Tár

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Have Been a Nominee: Top Gun: Maverick

Austin Butler in Elvis

Best Costume Design

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Will Win: Elvis

Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Should Have Been a Nominee: The Woman King 

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Should Have Been a Nominee: The Fabelmans 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

The Whale

Will Win: Elvis

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Have Been a Nominee: Crimes of the Future 

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

Elvis

The Fabelmans

Will Win: Babylon

Should Win: Babylon 

Should Have Been a Nominee: The Batman 

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Will Win: Babylon 

Should Win: The Fabelmans 

Should Have Been a Nominee: Living

RRR

Best Song

“Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman

“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick

“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu” – RRR

“This is a Life” – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR

Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR

Should Have Been a Nominee: “Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Elvis

Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Should Have Been a Nominee: Tár

Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Should Have Been a Nominee: RRR

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Should Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Should Have Been a Nominee: Mad God

Navalny

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

Will Win: Navalny 

Should Win: Navalny 

Should Have Been a Nominee: Moonage Daydream

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best International Film

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Close

EO

The Quiet Girl

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win: Close

Should Have Been a Nominee: Decision to Leave 

The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse

Best Animated Short

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

The Flying Sailor

Ice Merchants

My Year of Dicks

An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Should Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

The Elephant Whisperers

Best Documentary Short

The Elephant Whisperers

Haulout

How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Stranger at the Gate

Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers

Should Win: The Elephant Whisperers

Le Pupille

Best Live Action Short

An Irish Goodbye

Ivalu

Le pupille

Night Ride

The Red Suitcase

Will Win: Le Pupille

Should Win: The Red Suitcase

Written by
Daniel Rester is a writer for the We Live Film portion of We Live Entertainment. He is a Southern Oregon University alumnus and has a Bachelor of Science degree with a double major in Communication (Film, Television, and Convergent Media) and Emerging Media and Digital Arts. He has been involved with writing and directing short films for years. Rester also won 2nd place in the Feature Screenplay Competition in the 2015 Oregon Film Awards for his screenplay "Emma Was Here," which is currently in post-production and will be Rester's feature directorial debut.

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