It’s been a busy awards season but the big night is finally upon us. The 95th Academy Awards are this Sunday, March 12th. The Fabelmans started as an early frontrunner in the season after gaining steam at TIFF but is now expected by most predictors to go home empty-handed (which personally makes me sad as it was my favorite film of 2022). That just goes to show how much things can change as the various awards shows happen throughout the months. Everything Everywhere All at Once (a good but overrated film in my eyes) is now expected to win Best Picture after sweeping most guilds, though there is a slim chance All Quiet on the Western Front may win since it won big at BAFTA. Here are my predictions for who will win in each category, as well as who I think should win among the nominees and a film/person that I think should have been a nominee in each category but didn’t make it in.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: The Fabelmans
Should Have Been a Nominee: Close
Best Director
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Todd Field – Tár
Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Should Have Been a Nominee: Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick
Best Actress
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Cate Blanchett – Tár
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Cate Blanchett – Tár
Should Win: Cate Blanchett – Tár
Should Have Been a Nominee: Mia Goth – Pearl
Best Actor
Austin Butler – Elvis
Bill Nighy – Living
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Will Win: Austin Butler – Elvis
Should Win: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Have Been a Nominee: Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Have Been a Nominee: Nina Hoss – Tár
Best Supporting Actor
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Have Been a Nominee: Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Have Been a Nominee: The Quiet Girl
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Have Been a Nominee: Close
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Have Been a Nominee: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Have Been a Nominee: The Woman King
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Have Been a Nominee: The Fabelmans
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Have Been a Nominee: Crimes of the Future
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: Babylon
Should Have Been a Nominee: The Batman
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: The Fabelmans
Should Have Been a Nominee: Living
Best Song
“Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman
“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” – RRR
“This is a Life” – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR
Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR
Should Have Been a Nominee: “Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Have Been a Nominee: Tár
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Have Been a Nominee: RRR
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should Have Been a Nominee: Mad God
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Will Win: Navalny
Should Win: Navalny
Should Have Been a Nominee: Moonage Daydream
Best International Film
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
EO
The Quiet Girl
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Close
Should Have Been a Nominee: Decision to Leave
Best Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Should Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Best Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers
Should Win: The Elephant Whisperers
Best Live Action Short
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
Will Win: Le Pupille
Should Win: The Red Suitcase
