Box Office Preview: Can “Ted 2” Smoke Out Dinosaurs, Emotions?

Matt Marshall June 25, 2015

“Ted 2” Enters Tight Weekend Race for Top Spot

Seth MacFarlane’s foul-mouthed teddy bear (sounding a bit much like Family Guy’s Peter Griffin) is back for seconds. But can Ted 2 strike gold again and top the record-breaking hits, Jurassic World and Inside Out?

Three years ago, Ted was the surprise hit of the summer, becoming the breakout comedy of summer 2012. After all, who could have predicted this raunchy critically favored comedy would close in on $220 million domestically. Ted even managed to snag an Oscar nomination for Best Original Song (“Everybody Needs a Best Friend”).

Ted 2 is in quite a different spot than the first film. Early reviews for Ted 2 haven’t been as kind. MacFarlane is also coming off his critical and commercial failure from last year, A Million Ways to Die in the West. That sophmoric comedy western failed to pull it its entire run ($43.1 million) what Ted managed its opening weekend ($54.4 million).

Still, Ted 2 still has its brand and sequel appeal on its side. Last month, Pitch Perfect 2 outgrossed its 2012 predecessor in its opening weekend ($69.2 million). 22 Jump Street debuted with $19 million more than its first film. The Hangover Part II nearly doubled The Hangover’s opening in 2012 despite negative reviews. So will Ted 2 follow suit? It’s difficult to say, but at this point, most likely no.

Even the most die-hard Ted fans have to understand that a $70-80 million debut is out of reach. Opening around or just under the film shouldn’t spell defeat. After all, we’re not talking about sequel collapse the likes of Horrible Bosses 2 ($15.5 million down from $28.3 million). With Jurassic World and Inside Out running rampid, Ted 2 enters an already crowded market. With Magic Magic XXL and Terminator Genisys starting Wednesday, these first few days are critical.

Ted 2 opens Thursday night at 8 p.m. before expanding Friday in just above 3,400 theaters. The Thursday sneak preview crowd should kick the foul-mouthed bear off to a fine start with the male demographic coming out in full swing. A frontloaded weekend could be in store ahead, sending Ted 2 behind Jurassic World and Inside Out. By Sunday, expect a third place, $52 million debut.

For family audiences, newcomer Max will be an alternative to Pixar’s emotion-filled flick. Max features a Belgian Malinois military dog who’s adopted by a soldier’s family. Lack of starpower and mediocre reviews won’t help Max get past $10 milllion by Sunday.