It’s already December! The precursor awards ceremonies have started to shed some light on the upcoming Oscars. Some key critics groups have announced their winners, while the Critics’ Choice Awards and Golden Globes have announced their nominations. The Oscar shortlists for ten categories have also been revealed.
LAFCA announced Anora as their best picture and Mohammad Rasoulof for The Seed of the Sacred Fig as best director. NYFCC gave best picture to The Brutalist and best director to RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys. The Astra Awards gave best picture to Wicked and the film’s director, Jon M. Chu, best director.
Emilia Pérez leads the Golden Globe nominees with ten nominations. Sing Sing took a hit by not getting a Best Drama nomination there like it was expected to; September 5 took its spot. The Substance, which some – including myself – were skeptical of for showing up at the Oscars (due to being a body horror film) all but solidified its path forward by overperforming with Globe nominations. Denis Villeneuve was noticeably absent from the director nominations, which adds to my theory that he will be snubbed at the Oscars.
Conclave and Wicked lead the Critics’ Choice Awards nominations with eleven apiece. They also gave more love to Sing Sing and Dune: Part Two than the Globes did.
I now hesitantly have Conclave in the lead for the Best Picture Oscar win for now. In the very early part of the season I had Blitz winning, but that film didn’t pick up any steam like it was expected to. As Blitz died out, I moved to The Brutalist due to it gaining huge festival buzz. While The Brutalist is a great movie, some have been finding it to be too cold. Emilia Pérez, Wicked, and Anora are also frontrunners, but they too have received some backlash.
Conclave seems to be the safest pick for now since most agree it will likely be winning the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar and it will do well with the Oscars’ ranking voting system for the Best Picture category. It will also likely do very well with BAFTA nominations.
Of course, things could really shake up in January with the SAG nominations, BAFTA nominations, PGA nominations, DGA nominations, Golden Globe wins, and Critics’ Choice wins. All of this will lead up to the Oscar nominations, announced on January 17th.
I also have my total amount of predicted nominated films down to the sweet spot of 53 (which includes all of the shorts). The past few years, this has been the average number of nominated films. Unfortunately, that meant having to predict films that will come close to nominations but ultimately get none. In this process, I have dropped Blitz, The Room Next Door, Hard Truths, and others from all categories as I predict they will be snubbed.
*** = my prediction for the winner in each category as of now.
Total nomination and win counts for each film located below all of the categories.
Best Picture
Anora – Neon
The Brutalist – A24
A Complete Unknown – Searchlight Pictures
***Conclave – Focus Features
Dune: Part Two – Warner Bros. Pictures
Emilia Pérez – Netflix
Nickel Boys – Amazon MGM Studios
Sing Sing – A24
The Substance – Mubi
Wicked – Universal
Other Possibilities:
Challengers – Amazon MGM Studios
A Real Pain – Searchlight Pictures
September 5 – Paramount
Best Director
***Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Edward Berger – Conclave
Mohammad Rasoulof – The Seed of the Sacred Fig
RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys
Sean Baker – Anora
Other Possibilities:
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Best Actress
Angelina Jolie – Maria
***Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
Mikey Madison – Anora
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl
Other Possibilities:
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door
Best Actor
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Daniel Craig – Queer
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
***Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Other Possibilities:
Glen Powell – Hit Man
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Sabastian Stan – The Apprentice
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Margaret Qualley – The Substance
***Zoe Saldana – Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez
Best Supporting Actor
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
***Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Stanley Tucci – Conclave
Other Possibilities:
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Yura Borisov – Anora
Best Original Screenplay
***Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
Other Possibilities:
Challengers
Hard Truths
His Three Daughters
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown
***Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Sing Sing
Wicked
Other Possibilities:
Dune: Part Two
The Room Next Door
Nickel Boys
Best International Feature
***Emilia Pérez – France
The Girl with the Needle – Denmark
I’m Still Here – Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Germany
Vermiglio – Italy
Other Possibilities:
Flow – Latvia
Kneecap – Ireland
Universal Language – Canada
Best Documentary Feature
Black Box Diaries
Dahomey
Daughters
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
***Sugarcane
Other Possibilities:
No Other Land
Porcelain War
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
***The Wild Robot
Other Possibilities:
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Moana 2
Piece by Piece
Best Cinematography
***The Brutalist
Conclave
The Girl with the Needle
Maria
Nickel Boys
Other Possibilities:
Anora
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Best Editing
Anora
The Brutalist
***Conclave
Dune: Part Two
September 5
Other Possibilities:
Challengers
A Complete Unknown
Emilia Pérez
Best Production Design
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
***Wicked
Other Possibilities:
Blitz
A Complete Unknown
Nosferatu
Best Costume Design
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Maria
***Wicked
Other Possibilities:
Conclave
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Nosferatu
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
***The Substance
Waltzing with Brando
Other Possibilities:
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Best Visual Effects
Deadpool & Wolverine
***Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Mufasa: The Lion King
Wicked
Other Possibilities:
Alien: Romulus
Gladiator II
Twisters
Best Sound
A Complete Unknown
***Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Gladiator II
Wicked
Other Possibilities:
Blitz
Joker: Folie a Deux
The Wild Robot
Best Original Score
***The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Other Possibilities:
Blitz
Sing Sing
The Room Next Door
Best Original Song
“El Mal” – Emilia Pérez
***“Mi Camino” – Emilia Pérez
“Like a Bird” – Sing Sing
“The Journey” – Six Triple Eight
“Kiss the Sky” – The Wild Robot
Other Possibilities:
“Compress/Repress” – Challengers
“Beyond” – Moana 2
“Harper and Will Go West” – Will & Harper
Best Animated Short Film
Bottle George
***In the Shadow of the Cypress
Maybe Elephants
Percebes
The 21
Other Possibilities:
A Bear Named Wojtek
Me
Wander to Wonder
Best Live Action Short Film
Anuja
The Compatriot
***The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
The Masterpiece
An Orange from Jaffa
Other Possibilities:
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
Paris 70
Best Documentary Short Film
Death by Numbers
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
***Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Other Possibilities:
Chasing Roo
Keeper
Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
Total Nomination and Win Counts:
The Brutalist – 10 nominations, 3 wins
Conclave – 10 nominations, 3 wins
Emilia Pérez – 9 nominations, 3 wins
Wicked – 8 nominations, 2 wins
Dune: Part Two – 6 nominations, 2 wins
The Substance – 5 nominations, 2 wins
Anora – 5 nominations, 1 win
A Complete Unknown – 5 nominations, 1 win
Sing Sing – 4 nominations, 0 wins
Gladiator II – 4 nominations, 0 wins
Nickel Boys – 3 nominations, 0 wins
Maria – 3 nominations, 0 wins
A Real Pain – 2 nominations, 1 win
The Wild Robot – 2 nominations, 1 win
September 5 – 2 nominations, 0 wins
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – 2 nominations, 0 wins
The Girl with the Needle – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – 2 nominations, 0 wins
I’m Still Here – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Sugarcane – 1 nomination, 1 win
In the Shadow of the Cypress – 1 nomination, 1 win
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent – 1 nomination, 1 win
Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World – 1 nomination, 1 win
Babygirl – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Queer – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Vermiglio – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Black Box Diaries – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Dahomey – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Daughters – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Flow – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Inside Out 2 – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Memoir of a Snail – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl – 1 nomination, 0 wins
A Different Man – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Waltzing with Brando – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Deadpool & Wolverine – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Mufasa: The Lion King – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Challengers – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Six Triple Eight – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Bottle George – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Maybe Elephants – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Percebes – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The 21 – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Anuja – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Compatriot – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Masterpiece – 1 nomination, 0 wins
An Orange from Jaffa – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Death by Numbers – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Incident – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Instruments of a Beating Heart – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Only Girl in the Orchestra – 1 nomination, 0 wins
