Still image for Sentimental Value.
The 98th Oscars are eight to nine months away, but awards season never ends around here. The Sundance Film Festival and Cannes Film Festival have already occurred, and many other big ticket movies are lined up for fall releases. It’s time for my first round of predictions for the 98th Oscars.
Sundance is usually a good predictor for the Best Documentary category. Some of the hot docs out of the festival include The Perfect Neighbor, Seeds, and Cutting Through Rocks. Sorry, Baby is a dramedy that premiered at the festival and might be looking at a Best Screenplay nomination possibility.
It Was Just an Accident by Jafar Panahi won the Palme d’Or at Cannes. Most films that have won this prize the past few years have gone on to a Best Picture nomination; Anora won the Palme last year and went on to win the Best Picture Oscar. Sentimental Value also lived up to its hype at Cannes and was one of the most buzzed about titles.
Some of the other upcoming titles with awards potential are After the Hunt, Jay Kelly, and One Battle After Another. Hamnet and Marty Supreme are looking like the two heaviest players in my eyes as of now. Of course things could majorly change as more of these films begin to release later in the year and either lose or gain buzz.
*** = my prediction for the winner in each category as of now.
Total nomination and win counts for each film located below all of the categories.
Best Picture
After the Hunt – Amazon MGM Studios
Avatar: Fire and Ash – 20th Century Studios
Deliver Me from Nowhere – 20th Century Studios
***Hamnet – Focus Features
It Was Just an Accident – TBD
Jay Kelly – Netflix
Marty Supreme – A24
One Battle After Another – Warner Bros. Pictures
Sentimental Value – Neon
Wicked: For Good – Universal Pictures
Other Possibilities:
Bugonia – Focus Features
F1 – Warner Bros. Pictures
Frankenstein – Netflix
The Life of Chuck – Neon
No Other Choice – TBD
Rental Family – Searchlight Pictures
The Rivals of Amziah King – TBD
Sinners – Warner Bros. Pictures
Sound of Falling – TBD
Untitled Kathryn Bigelow film – Netflix
Best Director
***Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
Luca Guadagnino – After the Hunt
Noah Baumbach – Jay Kelly
Park Chan-wook – No Other Choice
Best Actress
Amanda Seyfried – Ann Lee
Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey into Night
***Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Julia Roberts – After the Hunt
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
Rebecca Ferguson – Untitled Kathryn Bigelow film
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Best Actor
Ed Harris – Long Day’s Journey into Night
George Clooney – Jay Kelly
Jeremy Allen White – Deliver Me from Nowhere
Paul Mescal – Hamnet
***Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Other Possibilities:
Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Matthew McConaughey – The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Supporting Actress
Ayo Edebiri – After the Hunt
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
***Emily Watson – Hamnet
Fran Drescher – Marty Supreme
Laura Dern – Jay Kelly
Other Possibilities:
Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
Jennifer Lopez – Kiss of the Spider Woman
Regina Hall – One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
Joe Alwyn – Hamnet
Jonathan Bailey – Wicked: For Good
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
***Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
Andrew Garfield – After the Hunt
Jeremy Strong – Deliver Me from Nowhere
Mark Hamill – The Life of Chuck
Best Original Screenplay
After the Hunt
It Was Just an Accident
Jay Kelly
***Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
The Rivals of Amziah King
Sinners
Sorry, Baby
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Deliver Me from Nowhere
Hamnet
No Other Choice
***One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
Frankenstein
The Life of Chuck
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Casting
***Hamnet
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Other Possibilities:
After the Hunt
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Best International Feature
It Was Just an Accident – France
No Other Choice – South Korea
The President’s Cake – Qatar
***Sentimental Value – Norway
Sound of Falling – Germany
Other Possibilities:
Orphan – Hungary
The Secret Agent – Brazil
Sirât – Spain
Best Documentary Feature
Cutting Through Rocks
Imago
***The Perfect Neighbor
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
Seeds
Other Possibilities:
Andre is an Idiot
The Six Billion Dollar Man
2000 Meters to Andriivka
Best Animated Feature
Arco
***Elio
A Magnificent Life
The Twits
Zootopia 2
Other Possibilities:
Animal Farm
The Bad Guys 2
Ne Zha 2
Best Cinematography
Avatar: Fire and Ash
***Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
Jay Kelly
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Best Editing
After the Hunt
Hamnet
***Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
F1
Jay Kelly
Sinners
Best Production Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
***Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
Mother Mary
The Phoenician Scheme
Sinners
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein
***Hamnet
Mother Mary
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
Ann Lee
How to Train Your Dragon
Marty Supreme
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
***Frankenstein
How to Train Your Dragon
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
Hamnet
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Mother Mary
Best Visual Effects
***Avatar: Fire and Ash
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
How to Train Your Dragon
The Running Man
Superman
Other Possibilities:
F1
Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning
Tron: Ares
Best Sound
***Avatar: Fire and Ash
Deliver Me from Nowhere
F1
Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Warfare
Best Original Score
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
***One Battle After Another
Sinners
Other Possibilities:
After the Hunt
F1
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Original Song
TBD – Deliver Me from Nowhere
TBD – Maserati: The Brothers
TBD – Mother Mary
“I Lied to You” – Sinners
***TBD – Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
TBD – The Rivals of Amziah King
TBD – The Wave
TBD – Zootopia 2
Total Nomination and Win Counts:
Hamnet – 13 nominations, 7 wins
Marty Supreme – 10 nominations, 3 wins
Sentimental Value – 9 nominations, 2 wins
One Battle After Another – 7 nominations, 2 wins
Wicked: For Good – 7 nominations, 1 win
Jay Kelly – 6 nominations, 0 wins
Avatar: Fire and Ash – 5 nominations, 2 wins
Frankenstein – 5 nominations, 2 wins
After the Hunt – 5 nominations, 0 wins
Deliver Me from Nowhere – 5 nominations, 0 wins
It Was Just an Accident – 4 nominations, 0 wins
Sinners – 4 nominations, 0 wins
No Other Choice – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Long Day’s Journey into Night – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Mother Mary – 2 nominations, 0 wins
How to Train Your Dragon – 2 nominations, 0 wins
The Perfect Neighbor – 1 nomination, 1 win
Elio – 1 nomination, 1 win
Bugonia – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Ann Lee – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The President’s Cake – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Sound of Falling – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Cutting Through Rocks – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Imago – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Seeds – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Arco – 1 nomination, 0 wins
A Magnificent Life – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Twits – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Zootopia 2 – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Smashing Machine – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Fantastic Four: First Steps – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Running Man – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Superman – 1 nomination, 0 wins
F1 – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Maserati: The Brothers – 1 nomination, 0 wins
