Awards season is really heating up. The main festivals took place in September, and the New York Film Festival and AFI Fest just took place in October. As I predicted earlier in the year with my first go-round of predictions, it still looks like Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, and Marty Supreme are going to be the biggest players for Oscars. I believe it is going to come down to Hamnet or One Battle After Another for the Best Picture win as of now. We’ll see how things shake up in the coming months though.
*** = my prediction for the winner in each category as of now.
Total nomination and win counts for each film located below all of the categories.
Best Picture
Avatar: Fire and Ash – 20th Century Studios
Frankenstein – Netflix
Hamnet – Focus Features
It Was Just an Accident – Neon
Marty Supreme – A24
No Other Choice – Neon
***One Battle After Another – Warner Bros. Pictures
Sentimental Value – Neon
Sinners – Warner Bros. Pictures
Wicked: For Good – Universal Pictures
Other Possibilities:
Bugonia – Focus Features
A House of Dynamite – Netflix
Is This Thing On? – Searchlight Pictures
Jay Kelly – Netflix
Nuremberg – Sony Pictures Classics
The Secret Agent – Neon
Song Sung Blue – Focus Features
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere – 20th Century Studios
The Testament of Ann Lee – TBD
Train Dreams – Netflix
Best Director
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
***Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
Park Chan-wook – No Other Choice
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Best Actress
Emma Stone – Bugonia
***Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Other Possibilities:
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
Tessa Thompson – Hedda
Best Actor
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
***Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Other Possibilities:
Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Lee Byung-hun – No Other Choice
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme
***Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine
Jennifer Lopez – Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Paul Mescal – Hamnet
***Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
Jeremy Strong – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Jonathan Bailey – Wicked: For Good
Russell Crowe – Nuremberg
Best Original Screenplay
A House of Dynamite
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
***Sinners
Other Possibilities:
Blue Moon
Jay Kelly
Sorry, Baby
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
***Hamnet
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Other Possibilities:
Frankenstein
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Wicked: For Good
Best Casting
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
***Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
Frankenstein
Sentimental Value
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best International Feature
It Was Just an Accident – France
No Other Choice – South Korea
The Secret Agent – Brazil
***Sentimental Value – Norway
The Voice of Hind Rajab – Tunisia
Other Possibilities:
The President’s Cake – Qatar
Sirât – Spain
Sound of Falling – Germany
Best Documentary Feature
Cover-Up
The Eyes of Ghana
***The Perfect Neighbor
Seeds
2000 Meters to Andriivka
Other Possibilities:
Andre is an Idiot
Cutting Through Rocks
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
Best Animated Feature
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
***Zootopia 2
Other Possibilities:
In Your Dreams
A Magnificent Life
Scarlet
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein
***Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Other Possibilities:
Marty Supreme
Nuremberg
Sentimental Value
Best Editing
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
***One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
F1
A House of Dynamite
Sinners
Best Production Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
***Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
The Phoenician Scheme
Sinners
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Costume Design
***Frankenstein
Hamnet
Kiss of the Spider Woman
The Testament of Ann Lee
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
How to Train Your Dragon
Sinners
Marty Supreme
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
***Frankenstein
Kiss of the Spider Woman
The Smashing Machine
Song Sung Blue
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
Sinners
Weapons
Wolf Man
Best Visual Effects
***Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
How to Train Your Dragon
Superman
Other Possibilities:
Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning
Tron: Ares
Wicked: For Good
Best Sound
***Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Sinners
Warfare
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning
One Battle After Another
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Score
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
***One Battle After Another
Sinners
Other Possibilities:
F1
A House of Dynamite
Jay Kelly
Best Original Song
“Dear Me” – Diane Warren: Relentless
“Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You” – Sinners
***“No Place Like Home” – Wicked: For Good
“Train Dreams” – Train Dreams
Other Possibilities:
“Waiting on a Wish” – Snow White
“The Girl in the Bubble” – Wicked: For Good
TBD – Zootopia 2
Total Nomination and Win Counts:
One Battle After Another – 11 nominations, 6 wins
Hamnet – 11 nominations, 3 wins
Sentimental Value – 9 nominations, 1 win
Marty Supreme – 9 nominations, 1 win
Sinners – 8 nominations, 2 wins
Wicked: For Good – 7 nominations, 1 win
Frankenstein – 7 nominations, 3 wins
Avatar: Fire and Ash – 4 nominations, 2 wins
It Was Just an Accident – 4 nominations, 0 wins
No Other Choice – 4 nominations, 0 wins
Train Dreams – 3 nominations, 0 wins
Song Sung Blue – 2 nominations, 0 wins
F1 – 2 nominations, 0 wins
KPop Demon Hunters – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Bugonia – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Kiss of the Spider Woman – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Zootopia 2 – 1 nomination, 1 win
The Perfect Neighbor – 1 nomination, 1 win
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Blue Moon – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Weapons – 1 nomination, 0 wins
A House of Dynamite – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Secret Agent – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Voice of Hind Rajab – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Cover-Up – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Eyes of Ghana – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Seeds – 1 nomination, 0 wins
2000 Meters to Andriivka – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Arco – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Elio – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Testament of Ann Lee – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Smashing Machine – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Fantastic Four: First Steps – 1 nomination, 0 wins
How to Train Your Dragon – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Superman – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Warfare – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Diane Warren: Relentless – 1 nomination, 0 wins
