It’s time to update Oscar predictions for the 97th Academy Awards! The Telluride, Toronto, and Venice festivals have passed, but New York and AFI are still around the corner.
The Life of Chuck unexpectedly won the People’s Choice Award at Toronto; the winner of that usually goes on to a Best Picture Oscar nomination. The Room Next Door took the Golden Lion at Venice, which was expected to go to The Brutalist. Even so, The Brutalist could prove to be a frontrunner if distributor A24 releases it this year. The film was heavily praised by critics and audiences at the fests. Conclave, Anora, and Emilia Pérez also seem pretty secure to gain a healthy amount of nominations given their festival praise.
Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Saturday Night, and The Piano Lesson all had mixed-to-positive responses, but they could still pick up some nominations if they gain more acclaim. Nickel Boys has its fans too, but it sounds like it could be too experimental for voters. Nightbitch sounds like it could just make a play for Actress and nothing else, and Amy Adams could very well win with a “career win” since she is overdue (such as Julianne Moore did with the one nomination given to Still Alice (2014)).
Blitz is still a big question mark until it premieres at the London Film Festival in October, but it did have an excellent trailer and Saoirse Ronan is said to be running for Supporting Actress instead of Actress. That could give her more room for Actress for The Outrun instead of splitting votes in that category. I see her chances as being better for Blitz though, and she could even move to lead instead of supporting for it (à la Kate Winslet in 2008 when stuck between The Reader and Revolutionary Road).
Other question marks include Gladiator II, A Complete Unknown, Here, and Juror No. 2, as none of those have screened yet either.
*** = my prediction for the winner in each category as of now.
TBD = to be determined.
Best Picture
Anora – Neon
***Blitz – Apple Original Films
The Brutalist – A24
A Complete Unknown – Searchlight Pictures
Conclave – Focus Features
Dune: Part Two – Warner Bros. Pictures
Emilia Pérez – Netflix
Gladiator II – Paramount Pictures
The Life of Chuck – TBD
Sing Sing – A24
Other Possibilities:
Nickel Boys – Amazon MGM Studios
The Piano Lesson – Netflix
The Room Next Door – Sony Pictures Classics/Warner Bros. Pictures
Saturday Night – Sony Pictures Releasing
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Neon
Best Director
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker – Anora
***Steve McQueen – Blitz
Other Possibilities:
Edward Berger – Conclave
Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing
Mohammad Rasoulof – The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Best Actress
***Amy Adams – Nightbitch
Angelina Jolie – Maria
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door
Other Possibilities:
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl
Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun
Zendaya – Challengers
Best Actor
***Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Daniel Craig – Queer
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Other Possibilities:
Gabriel LaBelle – Saturday Night
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
Tom Hiddleston – The Life of Chuck
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
***Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
Zoe Saldana – Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys
Elle Fanning – A Complete Unknown
Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez
Best Supporting Actor
***Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Mark Hamill – The Life of Chuck
Other Possibilities:
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Stanley Tucci – Conclave
Best Original Screenplay
***Anora
Blitz
The Brutalist
Saturday Night
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Other Possibilities:
The Apprentice
Challengers
A Real Pain
Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
The Life of Chuck
The Room Next Door
***Sing Sing
Other Possibilities:
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
Best International Feature
All We Imagine as Light – India
***Emilia Pérez – France
The Girl with the Needle – Denmark
I’m Still Here – Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Germany
Other Possibilities:
Kneecap – Ireland
Pedro Páramo – Mexico
When the Light Breaks – Iceland
Best Documentary Feature
The Brink of Dreams
Daughters
***No Other Land
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Sugarcane
Other Possibilities:
Dahomey
The Last of the Sea Women
A New Kind of Wilderness
Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
***The Wild Robot
Other Possibilities:
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Moana 2
The Most Precious of Cargoes
Best Cinematography
Blitz
***The Brutalist
Emilia Pérez
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
Other Possibilities:
Conclave
Gladiator II
Maria
Best Editing
***Blitz
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Sing Sing
Other Possibilities:
Challengers
Emilia Pérez
Saturday Night
Best Production Design
Blitz
The Brutalist
***Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Other Possibilities:
Conclave
Joker: Folie à Deux
Wicked
Best Costume Design
Blitz
***Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Maria
Wicked
Other Possibilities:
The Brutalist
Conclave
Nosferatu
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Blitz
Dune: Part Two
***Nosferatu
Wicked
Other Possibilities:
The Brutalist
A Different Man
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Visual Effects
Deadpool & Wolverine
***Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Mufasa: The Lion King
Other Possibilities:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Twisters
Wicked
Best Sound
***Blitz
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Gladiator II
Other Possibilities:
Conclave
Joker: Folie à Deux
Twisters
Best Original Score
Blitz
***The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
Saturday Night
Other Possibilities:
Challengers
Sing Sing
The Wild Robot
Best Original Song
***“El Camino” – Emilia Pérez
TBD – Moana 2
TBD – Piece by Piece
“Like a Bird” – Sing Sing
“The Journey” – Six Triple Eight
Other Possibilities:
TBD – Joker: Folie à Deux
TBD – Mufasa: The Lion King
TBD – Wicked
Best Animated Short Film
An Almost Christmas Story
Bug Diner
Hurikán
***In the Shadow of the Cypress
Percebes
Other Possibilities:
The Brown Dog
Silent Panorama
Wander to Wonder
Best Live Action Short Film
***The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
The Masterpiece
An Orange from Jaffa
Ripe!
The Yellow
Other Possibilities:
Loser Baby
A Swim Lesson
An Urban Allegory
Best Documentary Short Film
Frank
***Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
One Good Reason
The Turnaround
Wouldn’t Make It Any Other Way
Other Possibilities:
Alok
Remember, Broken Crayons Colour Too
Wrecked a Bunch of Cars, Had a Good Time
Total Nomination and Win Counts:
Blitz – 11 nominations, 5 wins
The Brutalist – 10 nominations, 3 wins
Dune: Part Two – 9 nominations, 3 wins
Emilia Pérez – 9 nominations, 2 wins
Sing Sing – 6 nominations, 2 wins
Conclave – 6 nominations, 0 wins
Gladiator II – 6 nominations, 0 wins
Anora – 4 nominations, 1 win
A Complete Unknown – 4 nominations, 0 wins
The Life of Chuck – 3 nominations, 0 wins
Nosferatu – 2 nominations, 1 win
The Room Next Door – 2 nominations, 0 wins
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Saturday Night – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Maria – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Wicked – 2 nominations, 0 wins
Nightbitch – 1 nomination, 1 win
The Wild Robot – 1 nomination, 1 win
No Other Land – 1 nomination, 1 win
In the Shadow of the Cypress – 1 nomination, 1 win
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent – 1 nomination, 1 win
Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World – 1 nomination, 1 win
Queer – 1 nomination, 0 wins
A Real Pain – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Piano Lesson – 1 nomination, 0 wins
All We Imagine is Light – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Girl with the Needle – 1 nomination, 0 wins
I’m Still Here – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Brink of Dreams – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Daughters – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Sugarcane – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Flow – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Inside Out 2 – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Memoir of a Snail – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Nickel Boys – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Deadpool & Wolverine – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Mufasa: The Lion King – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Moana 2 – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Piece by Piece – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Six Triple Eight – 1 nomination, 0 wins
An Almost Christmas Story – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Bug Diner – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Hurikán – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Percebes – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Masterpiece – 1 nomination, 0 wins
An Orange from Jaffa – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Ripe! – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Yellow – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Frank – 1 nomination, 0 wins
One Good Reason – 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Turnaround – 1 nomination, 0 wins
Wouldn’t Make It Any Other Way – 1 nomination, 0 wins
