Box Office: ‘The Conjuring 2’ Frightens Off ‘Warcraft’ Adaptation

"The Conjuring 2" (2016) - Weekend Box Office

‘The Conjuring 2′ Repeats Success with Shocking $40M Debut

After weeks of debating about summer’s sequelitis slump, The Conjuring 2 curbed some of the concerns this weekend, leading the weekend box office with an estimated $40.4 million.

This is great news for Warner Bros., which scored a $41.9 million debut for the first time in 2013. There appears to still be a demand for the Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson supernatural sequel with critics and audiences alike enjoying the second film. We’ll know in the coming weeks whether or not The Conjuring 2 can match the first film’s 3.28x multiplier. By chance if it does, lightning will have struck twice for the franchise. Outside of The Conjuring, 3x multipliers can be difficult to come by as a 2x multiplier or legs slightly better seem to be more common.

Yielding the top spot this weekend to The Conjuring 2, Blizzard Entertainment video game adaptation Warcraft claimed second place with $24.4 million. For a feature film based on a video game, a $24 million debut isn’t all that bad. Warcraft is the 6th largest opening for a video game only behind Lara Croft: Tomb Raider ($47.7 million), The Angry Birds Movie ($38.2 million), Pokemon: The First Movie ($31.0 million), Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time ($30.1 million) and Resident Evil: Afterlife ($26.7 million). If Warcraft behaves likes the other films mentioned, Universal Studios could be aiming for a $85-90 million run. Even with a run under $100 million, Warcraft will make up most of its run overseas, already nearing $300 million worldwide.

Debuting in third, Lionsgate’s Now You See Me 2 opened to $23.0 million. While not a steep film-to-film drop like many other sequels this summer, Now You See Me 2 will still be gambling with an over/under $100 million at this point. All signs point more towards under around $90 million though. The 2013 film starring Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Isla Fisher and Dave Franco debuted with $29.4 million, finishing its run with $117.7 million. Granted, Now You See Me did garner slightly better reviews and became a surprise hit for Lionsgate with a 4x multiplier. Repeat success is highly unlikely though for this second act.

Down three spots from last week, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows tumbled to fourth place with weekend with $14.8 million. The Paramount sequel dropped 58.1% from last weekend’s underwhelming $35.3 million debut. In comparison, the 2014 reboot declined 56.5% from its opening weekend, still battling off Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy. After 10 days, Turtles still managed a 1.62x multiplier. If Out of the Shadows can match that run, it still falls shy of the century mark. That puts the Turtles sequel in the underperfoming company of Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising and Alice Through the Looking Glass.

In its third frame, 20th Century Fox’s X-Men: Apocalypse continues its freefall down 56.2% with $10.0 million. Apocalypse fell harder than X-Men: First Class (-50.5%) and X-Men: Days of Future Past (-53.4%) this weekend due to a triple threat of newcomers on the scene. The best case scenario is that if it plays like Days of Future Past’s remaining 1.23x multiplier, Apocalypse cracks $167.8 million. First Class’ scored a 1.22x multiplier based on the rest of its run in 2011. That’s the absolute ceiling if the franchise is aiming for consistency. $157.3 million is the magic number to match the run of 2000’s X-Men and even that is no guarantee at this point.

The Conjuring 2 blew past my $30.3 million estimate. Warcraft and Now You See Me 2 both debuted around my predictions on Thursday.

Note: These #’s are based on Sunday’s projections and can change with Monday’s actual #’s.

#1 – The Conjuring 2 (NR)
$40.4 million / $40.4 million total

#2 – Warcraft (NR)
$24.4 million / $24.4 million total

#3 – Now You See Me 2 (NR)
$23.0 million / $23.0 million total

#4 – Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (1)
$14.8 million  / $61.0 million total

#5 – X-Men: Apocalypse (2)
$10.0 million / $136.4 million total

Opening Next Week: Finding Dory, Central Intelligence

Source: Box Office Mojo

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